Focus Fixture: England to take all three points at the Aviva Stadium

England kick off the post-Gareth Southgate era in Dublin facing the Republic of Ireland in the UEFA Nations League. 

The Form

In terms of form, the new-look England come into this match in good shape having reached the final of Euro 2024. After the loss to Spain, England’s most successful manager since the great Sir Alf Ramsey departed and under-21’s manager Lee Carsley has been put in interim charge.

The England dugout isn’t the only one with a fresh face, Heimir Hallgrimsson will be giving his first teamtalk to the Irish side on Saturday. Hallgrimsson has been the scourge of England before, back in 2016, when as joint manager of Iceland his side caused one of football’s biggest upsets knocking the Three Lions out of Euro 2016.

This fixture will resonate particularly with the new England manager. Despite being born in Birmingham, Carsley represented the Republic of Ireland at senior level winning 40 caps between 1997 and 2008. 

There is no getting away from the fact that head to head between the two sides makes pretty boring reading for both sides. They have met 17 times in their history with the first match being played in September 1946, a draw is the most popular result with nine games ending in stalemate. England have won six matches with the Republic of Ireland only coming out on top twice in 1949 and 1988.

The fixture will also hold special significance for Declan Rice and Jack Grealish who both represented the Republic of Ireland at youth level before switching their allegiances to England - both feature in Carsley’s squad.

The boys in green failed to qualify for Euro 2024 and therefore haven’t played a competitive fixture since last November. Since then, they held Belgium to a 0-0 draw and beat Hungary 2-1 at home so England would be foolish to take this one lightly. 

The Runners and Riders

England were already missing Jude Bellingham who picked up an injury playing for Real Madrid, but they are now without Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer after the trio withdrew from the squad. Carsley could hand senior debuts to Morgan Gibbs-White, Angel Gomes and Noni Madueke on Saturday with the all three included in his plans. 

There are plenty of familiar faces in Hallgrimsson’s squad with 13 Premier League players featuring. The main concern for the Republic of Ireland is at the top of the pitch, Evan Ferguson is yet to feature for Brighton this season but assistant manager John O’Shea has said, “he’s nice and sharp in training” and “will be ready for Saturday”. Without Ferguson the Republic lack a cutting threat so they will be hopeful he is fit to start.

What They Said

On the surprise inclusion of Angel Gomes, Carsley said: “Angel is probably different to a lot of what we would have seen in the past, in terms of a central midfield player being a lot more physical and robust. He’s a lot more of a technical player. He controls the game with his technique."

After his appointment back in July, Hallgrimsson said: "I am looking forward to working closely with the players to help coach and guide them towards improved performances and results ensuring we qualify and compete at major tournaments on a regular basis."

Selection

For my selection, I am diving into the card market. Southampton’s Will Smallbone was one of best players for Saints last season and his screamer in the play-off semi-final win over West Brom put his side on their way to Wembley. 

Thanks to an injury to Josh Cullen, Smallbone is almost certain to start. When on media duties this week he said, “Saturday is another big game and a big test and one that I am relishing as a player.” 

Smallbone was booked eight times in the Championship last season and committed an average of 0.98 fouls per 90 minutes. Whereas Saints were the dominant team in most of their matches last season, that will not be the case for Ireland on Saturday night. Smallbone and the boys in green will be preparing to spend a lot of time without the ball and that brings with it much more opportunity for fouls. He will also be facing some high quality and experienced operators in the middle of the park with Rice expected to start. 

Born in Basingstoke, Hampshire, Smallbone grew up in England so there is bound to be a bit of extra spice in his game. Priced at 6.2, it is very attractive.

Back Will Smallbone to be carded @ 6.2

Bet Builder Tip

Thanks to getting a good price on the Smallbone card, we can keep it fairly simple from here on in. 

Backing England to win at 1.53 is a good way to give the price a little boost. The Three Lions haven’t lost to Ireland in their last seven meetings dating back to Euro 1988. You also have to go back to Bobby Robson and September 1988 for the last time a non-caretaker England manager failed to win their first game as manager.

Backing both teams to score - no also seems like a good bet. Goals have been a big problem for Ireland and bringing back Evan Ferguson who is yet to play a minute of competitive football this season is unlikely to be revolutionary. 

In their last ten matches against nations that qualified for Euro 2024, Ireland have only been on the scoresheet in three games and only scored more than one goal once. Even without Kyle Walker and the recently-retired Kieran Trippier England should have a solid enough defence to keep the Irish out.

Back Will Smallbone to be carded, England to win and BTTS - No @ 13.0

Photo credit: Arne Müseler