Inter Milan v AC Milan Tips: Derby della Madonnina Part II to secure ultimate bragging rights

The Champions League final is guaranteed to have an Italian team taking part for the first time since 2017 - and that team will be from Milan. One side already has a foot in Istanbul, but is it that simple?

Internazionale strolled to victory in the first leg at the San Siro, scoring two early goals before taking their foot off the gas against an AC Milan side that might yet miss out on next year’s competition after falling to fifth in Serie A.

Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan got the goals in that 2-0 ‘away’ win last week, and it would take a brave punter to back against Inter getting the job done this week. Football expert Joe Crann is backing another Inter win, but here’s a closer look at what lies ahead. 

Pure form 

Take away the derby element, the bragging rights, the fact that a place in the final is on the line, and you simply have one team in fantastic form going up against a struggling opponent. 

Inter have won their last seven games in all competitions and have kept five clean sheets in the process. Their 4-2 win over Sassuolo this past weekend was the fifth time in the last eight matches that they have scored three or more goals.

When you couple that with the fact that AC have just four wins in their last 15 matches and have only clean sheets since the start of March, it makes a home win with over 1.5 goals (2.64) or 2.5 goals (3.65) look very interesting. 

Nobody is really expecting a major comeback (Milan are 12.5 to qualify), but Stefano Pioli’s side can at least make it interesting by getting on the scoresheet. Both teams to score is priced at a tasty 1.92. 

Inter’s attack

Simone Inzaghi’s side has taken things up a notch since the start of May with 14 goals in four games, largely due to their prolific strike-force with Edin Dzeko, Lautaro Martinez and a seemingly revitalised Romelu Lukaku grabbing three each.

The hosts have outscored every team in Serie A other than Napoli this season, they have only failed to score in two of their 13 matches since the start of April. One of those three aforementioned players has found the back of the net in nine of the 11 encounters 

It can be done, though… 

It’s not often that a two-goal lead in the first leg of a knockout game in the Champions League is overturned, but it has happened before. 

Liverpool were the last team to achieve such a feat back in 2019 when they pulled off an incredible performance on the way to winning the competition - after losing 3-0 at the Camp Nou, they won 4-0 on home soil.

Earlier that season Manchester United managed to come back and see off Paris Saint-Germain after a 2-0 home defeat in the Round of 16. They drew 3-3 after two legs and won on away goals. But it’s unlikely to happen in this match-up given the dominance of Inter in the first encounter and I’m backing them to win again.

Inter Milan v AC Milan Tips

Inter to win and Over 1.5 goals @ 2.64
Both teams to score @ 1.92