How have the Premier League outright markets evolved so far this season

It is that time again, time for the dreaded international break, but it gives us a chance to look at how the Premier League’s outright markets are settling in.

We are now 12 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to settle down into a recognisable and understandable shape.

The Title Race

Fear not Manchester City are top of the Premier League table, albeit only by one point at this stage. Despite the top five being separated by only three points, the markets view it as very much a three horse race for the title.

Manchester City - who are going for a record fourth straight league title - have been the market leader since before the first ball was kicked in August and still lead by a considerable margin. On the opening day they were at 1.86, now they are 1.42. After two successive defeats back at the start of October they briefly drifted to 1.84.

Tucked in behind City and playing them when we return from the international break is their old foe Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men are resurgent this season and are only one point off the leaders at the moment. You can currently find Liverpool at 7.6, on the opening day you would have got them at 9.0. It will be interesting to see how the market changes if the Reds walk away from the Etihad with all three points in a fortnight's time.

Despite trailing Liverpool by goal difference, Arsenal are shorter in the betting. Having gone as low as 5.3 after their win over City at the Emirates last month, they’ve drifted back out to 6.8.

The Golden Boot

You will be shocked to learn who is leading the markets for this one. The goal machine himself Erling Haaland is the favourite at 1.24, having scored 13 goals in the 12 matches so far.

Mohamed Salah is second in the race for the golden boot, with ten goals. He is priced at 8.0 though due to the time he will miss for the African Cup of Nations in January and February. Salah could be away from Merseyside for as much as four weeks, making it hard for him to challenge Haaland.

Heung-Min Son is the next favourite at 22, he has got eight goals so far this campaign, but will be without his new running mate in James Maddison for the foreseeable future.

The Dogfight at the Bottom

One of the big themes of this Premier League season so far is how poorly the three promoted sides are doing, they make up the bottom three and have 15 points and three wins between them. Their collective 15 points would only be good enough for 14th place in the league. 

Luton Town and Sheffield United were both heavily tipped to go down and you would have found them at 1.37 and 1.65 respectively on the opening day. They are now at 1.23 and 1.20. 

Burnley are the surprise package, they were at 5.5 but after ten defeats in 12 games they are now as short as 1.68. Everton, Bournemouth and Fulham were all available to back at a shorter price before a ball was kicked.