Fulham v Chelsea Tips: Expect a low-scoring duel in Thursday's London derby
By Peter Galindo
Fulham v Chelsea Odds11 January 2023
Will Chelsea recover from a 4-0 thumping at the hands of Manchester City in the FA Cup when they face an in-form Fulham on Thursday? Peter Galindo has his say.
Chelsea in Crisis
Chelsea manager Graham Potter was forced to rotate his squad in their loss to Manchester City due to the club’s current injury crisis. Wingers Christian Pulisic and Raheem Sterling exited early from their previous Premier League defeat to City last week, and the former has eventually been ruled out for multiple weeks after further examination.
Sterling is still being assessed but he has already missed an FA Cup clash and his participation for this match against Fulham remains up in the air. Luckily for Potter, Mason Mount returned on Sunday and should be available.
An already thin squad that is dealing with a four-day turnaround seems like a recipe for disaster as the pressure mounts on the former Brighton head coach. The stats make for grim reading: Chelsea have scored just once in their previous nine matches in all competitions and haven’t kept a clean sheet since October.
The current injury predicament and subsequent downturn in form has left Chelsea 10 points adrift of the top four, and their results will have to pick up soon with the Champions League set to resume next month.
But adjusting can take time and that lends credence to Fulham keeping another clean sheet, which is available at a tasty 4.2.
The Mitrovic Factor
The World Cup break seemingly did wonders for Fulham as they have won all four matches since returning to action, including a 2-0 victory over Hull City in the FA Cup on Saturday.
Manager Marco Silva rotated his side for that match, making seven changes to the team that beat Leicester City 1-0 in the Premier League. That means key players will be rested and rejuvenated for their return.
However, Fulham will have to cope without talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Mitrovic has scored 11 goals this season, including two in the last three matches along with an assist.
Aleksander Mitrovic: suspended for Fulham's midweek clash with Chelsea
Carlos Vinicius started the FA Cup win, so he could keep his place in the team as Mitrovic’s replacement. Vinicius only has 10 league appearances, so perhaps he comes up with the goods with consecutive starts under his belt.
Bobby Decordova-Reid (four), Joao Palhinha (three) and Andreas Periera (two) are the team’s next highest scorers. One of them could find the net once again, but keep a close eye on Willian. The Brazilian winger is averaging 0.23 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes this season, the second-highest output among all Fulham players with at least 500 minutes under their belt.
The former Chelsea man is second in shots on target per 90 minutes (0.77) behind Mitrovic, which makes him a tantalising prospect as an anytime goalscorer at 4.5 against his former team.
Defensive struggle?
This has all the makings of a low-scoring match. That may not mean it will lack in entertainment, though, considering the contrasting form of both sides.
Chelsea only have one clean sheet since mid-October, and Fulham have three in their last four games, so another slip-up could be on the cards for the Blues. That being said, it’s difficult to foresee the game opening up and under 1.5 goals looks the best play at 2.7.