Focus Fixture: Can Arsenal finally overcome Manchester City?

Last season’s two Premier League title contenders square off for the first time this weekend in the primetime 4:30pm Sunday slot. 

Manchester City travel to London to take on Arsenal in a mouth-watering match.

City go into the match on top of the table. They won their first six Premier League matches, only briefly breaking out of cruise control to score a late winner against Sheffield United. But last weekend they hit a wall, losing 2-1 to Wolverhampton Wanderers. 

Combine this with a loss to Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup three days earlier, and very small chinks in City’s armour have become visible. Rodri, who scored the winner in the Champions League final, has long been a vital man in Pep Guardiola’s side but it has really shown in the last two weeks. 

The midfielder was sent-off for violent conduct in City’s 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest on September 23, and was suspended for the defeats to Newcastle and Wolves. Kalvin Phillips played in both and couldn’t fill the gap left by Rodri. Because his ban doesn’t cover UEFA competitions, Rodri returned for City’s 3-1 win over RB Leipzig on Wednesday night. This will be Pep and City’s biggest concern going into this weekend’s game against Arsenal. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a reworked midfield that didn’t include Phillips.

Arsenal are still undefeated in the league, having won five and drawn two. A battling 2-2 with Spurs a fortnight ago, was followed up with a 4-0 victory over Bournemouth last weekend. They tasted defeat for the first time this season against RC Lens in the Champions League on Tuesday, but I don’t think they will be too concerned about that. 

The head-to-head is tough reading for Arsenal fans. The Gunners haven’t taken three points in this fixture since December 21, 2015. A 2-1 win that day was inspired by Theo Walcott’s 100th Arsenal goal and Olivier Giroud. Arsenal have beaten them in other competitions, but in the Premier League, City are undefeated in the last 16 games, winning the last 12 in a row. 

Last season, the top two sides didn’t meet until February 15 - the initial fixture was postponed because of the Queen’s funeral, Arsenal were flying at that point of the season, but a Takehiro Tomiyasu error gave Kevin De Bruyne a gift to open the scoring and City didn’t look back to win 3-1 and go top of the table for the first time since November 5. 

They didn’t meet again until April 26, and City were ruthless. A 4-1 win destroyed a weak Arsenal side and basically sealed the title for the hosts. Arsenal didn’t turn up in the biggest game of their season, you can’t help but think that this game played a big part in persuading Mikel Arteta to go out and buy Declan Rice. 

Rice will be a key man and will have to play well if Arsenal are going to come out on top in this one.

The Runners and Riders

Arsenal’s injury list is substantial. Gabriel Martinelli will miss out after picking up a suspected hamstring injury against Everton. Bukayo Saka is in contention according to Arteta despite hobbling off in midweek. Leandro Trossard and Rice both came back from injury in midweek to lessen the blow. Although the Gunners are still without Jurrien Timber and Thomas Partey. 

Manchester City’s biggest miss comes in the form of Rodri through suspension. John Stones returned to the bench on Wednesday so could feature, but the England international hasn’t played a minute of football yet this season. Bernardo Silva was back in the starting line-up on Wednesday, so is likely to play some role on Sunday. In the long-term, Kevin De Bruyne is still out and probably won’t be seen for a while. 

What they said

“They’ve done that against Brighton or against Liverpool. It’s adapting to the behaviour of the team. You know what you’re going to provoke. They have different qualities with Ederson and another goalkeeper,” Arteta on City's long-ball game.

“Play it down, the second leg against Arsenal when they come here it'll be different with a lot on the line. What I want is to arrive in February qualified for Champions League knockout stages to be close in the competition, close to top of the league, the distance short and have the last 10 games in our competition: 'let's go again," Guardiola on his new-year target.

Bet Builder Tip

I am finding this game really hard to call. Probably the hardest I have found in this series. If City had Rodri then I would be very confident in backing them but he has been a massive miss. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an odd-looking line-up to try and cover his absence in the best way possible.

Arsenal are also depleted, hopefully next time the two sides play they are both at full strength. 

I am going to sit on the fence and pick a draw. Boring I know, but I am finding this really hard to call.

I do think BTTS will hit like it did in both games last season, and to finish the builder off I have gone for over 4.5 cards – in a game as intense as this one you can see tempers being roused and challenges flying in.

Recommended Bet

Back the Draw, BTTS and over 4.5 cards @ 6.6