European Football Outrights: Who is going to be taking home European silverware at the end of the season

European football is back on our screens this midweek, the knockout stages get underway and things are getting real. 

Let’s take a look at the outright markets for each competition.

UEFA Champions League

Manchester City are in pole position and are priced at 3.0, to become back-to-back champions. Their Istanbul triumph will live long in the memory for their fans as they clinched the only piece of silverware that had been eluding them. 

They are yet to break stride this campaign, winning six out of six in the group stage. They are faced with FC Copenhagen in the round of 16 tonight - despite the Danish side beating rivals Manchester United in the group stage - City won’t be too worried about progressing through to the next round. 

Bayern Munich, 6.2, Real Madrid, 6.4, and Arsenal, 6.8, are all closely bunched in behind the favourites. 

Madrid are the only other team to have won all their games so far and an attack led by Jude Bellingham and Vinicious Jnr is going to threaten any defence. They also have bucket-loads of experience and plenty of players who know their way through this tournament. However, they will be scarred from last season’s semi-final against Man City. City took them to the cleaners at the Etihad in one of the most stunning first half performances in the history of the competition. Madrid face Leipzig tonight, who are fifth in the Bundesliga. While not as easy as Copenhagen, Real will be confident. 

Bayern Munich are in the unusual position of not being top of the Bundesliga. After Saturday’s loss to Bayer Leverkusen they sit five points behind their rivals. Harry Kane has been in superb form this season, he has four goals in this competition so far. They managed five wins and one draw in the group stage. They travel to Rome to play Lazio on Wednesday night, who finished runners up to Atletico Madrid in Group E. Munich won the Champions League in 2020 and 2013, but lost to City in the quarter-finals last season. 

Arsenal finished top of one of the easier groups on 13 points. They are in fine form in the Premier League, but they lack experience in big European matches. In the Premier League, they’ve shown their ability to win one off games this season beating City, Manchester United and Liverpool at home. For me, their squad isn’t big enough to compete in both the Premier League and Champions League down the stretch, it will be interesting to see where Mikel Arteta chooses to focus them. 

UEFA Europa League

For both the Europa League and Europa Conference League, we are yet to know for definite which teams will be competing in the round of 16 in a few weeks. The teams who finished third in the group stage of the competition above drop down and face the teams that finished second in their groups in the current tournament.

Because of that, none of the favourites will be in action on Thursday night.

Liverpool, 3.0, are the heavy favourites to win the competition and it would be a fitting way to end Jurgen Klopp’s tenure at Anfield. A disappointing campaign last season saw them finish fifth, but this season they have been back to their best. They have only tasted defeat three times in all competitions and are top of the Premier League. 

Bayer Leverkusen are second favourites at 5.8. It will be fitting if these two face-off in the final with Leverkusen manager, Xabi Alonso, the hot favourite to succeed Klopp in the Liverpool job. They have been incredibly impressive this season, five points clear and unbeaten at the top of the Bundesliga and are the only team with a perfect record so far in the Europa League. 

West Ham and Brighton are close behind at 17.0 and 17.5 respectively. Of the teams dropping down from the Champions League, AC Milan and Benfica are both threats to the two favourites. But for me the biggest threat to both is being distracted by their domestic campaigns, and I suspect for both that will surely be the priority. 

UEFA Europa Conference League

The newest European competition is only in its third season, but it gives clubs who may otherwise find silverware out of reach an opportunity to get their hands on some. The celebrations that followed West Ham’s triumph last season, show how much this already means to fans. 

Aston Villa are heavily favoured in the market and can be backed at 3.7. Apart from an opening day defeat to Legia Warsaw they looked fairly comfortable in the group stage. Since then, they have hit a patchy run of form partly caused by injuries. But in Unai Emery, they have a manager who is vastly experienced in European competitions. If anyone can steer them to victory it is him.

Last season’s finalists Fiorentina, are second in the market at 6.2, the Italian side were undefeated in the group stage, winning three and drawing three of their games. They sit seventh in Serie A, but are only five points behind fourth-placed Atalanta. For both Villa and Fiorentina it will be interesting to see where priorities lie as the season draws to a close. The choice to prioritise domestic football, could have a big impact on the outcome of this tournament. 

Ajax and Real Betis are the biggest sides dropping down from the Europa League while Eintracht Frankfurt are also a threat.