Focus Fixture: Scott Thornton has two card bets for the Europa League Final

Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen head to Dublin to contest what promises to be an enthralling climax to this season’s Europa League on Wednesday night.

The Form

Bayer Leverkusen and their preposterous run have been the talk of the European football columns this season. Xabi Alonso has overseen a remarkable transformation since taking over as manager. The club were in the relegation zone when he took over in October 2022. Fast forward 19 months, Leverkusen have just lifted the Bundesliga trophy for the first time in their history. They have the chance to add to their trophy cabinet this week with the DFB Pokal final following the Europa League final.

It’s not just what Bayer Leverkusen have achieved this season, it is how they’ve achieved it. They won the Bundesliga without losing a single match, a feat that Bayern Munich haven’t managed in any of their 33 title wins. In fact, Leverkusen are yet to taste defeat in a competitive match this season. They have won 42 of their 51 matches and are averaging 2.8 goals per game during that scarcely believable run. 

While Xabi Alonso is a newcomer to the managerial scene, Gian Piero Gasperini is a veteran in every sense of the word. He has remained in Italy for the whole of his career and has been at Atalanta since 2016. Gasperini has taken the club to the forefront of European football and employs a style of play that is easy on the eye. However, he is now looking to add silverware to his CV.

Atalanta have lost just one of their last nine matches across all competitions. They have fifth place sewn up in Serie A, which is enough for them to secure Champions League football for next season so this match is all about who will lift the trophy.

The Runners and the Riders

Atalanta have three players injured for this one. Emil Holm, Sead Kolasinac and Marten De Roon are all set to miss out on the showpiece in Dublin. Gan Piero Gasperini still has plenty of options available to him and will need to come up with the perfect game plan to stop the rampant champions of Germany. 

Fortunately for Xabi Alonso, Baye Leverkusen have a clean bill of health coming into this clash. Victor Boniface is in line to start after struggling with injury this season. 

What They Said

Gasperini described reaching this final as the high point of his career but doesn’t feel trophies are the only barometer of success. He said, "Is it the highest point of my career? Yes, in terms of accomplishment and prestige, absolutely” before going on to say, "I don't think winning a cup is necessarily always part of the parameters by which success is judged. Everyone has their own goals.”

Xabi Alonso has suggested that the frantic nature of the campaign has meant he has been unable to reflect on his team’s accomplishments thus far. The former Real Madrid midfielder said, "I have enough things on my plate to think about than 'how good' or 'how nice' we are. In 10 days maybe I will stop and think we are doing something exceptional.”

Selection

Istvan Kovacs is the official for this match. He has only refereed one Europa League match this season and that was the second leg of the round of 16 clash between Villareal and Marseille. He dished out a total of eight cards in that match.

Kovacs has officiated eight Champions League matches this season. Those have seen him hand out an average of 6.13 cards per game so cards look to be on the agenda as he returns to European competition on Wednesday.  This referee has handed out an average of 6.28 cards per game in the Romanian top flight in this campaign, well above the league average of 4.82 cards.

Card numbers have been slightly lower in Atalanta’s Europa League matches but the same cannot be said for Bayer Leverkusen’s. There were six cards in the first leg of their semi-final against Roma and seven in the second. This should be a cagey affair so I’m expecting a decent amount of cards.

There were 13 cards awarded in last season’s Europa League final if we include extra time. There were seven cards in regulation time so this bet landed with relative ease.

Recommended Bet: Over 5.5 cards at 2.08

Bet Builder Tip

With cards on the agenda, our bet builder tip for this one features two player-card bets. The midfield battle will be crucial in this fixture so we are backing both Ederson and Exequiel Palacios to be carded in the match.

Palacios has picked up six cards in the Bundesliga this season, the joint most in the Bayer Leverkusen side. He has made fewer starts than Jonathan Tah and Jeremie Frimpong, who also have six, and an average of 0.3 cards per 90 minutes played appeals ahead of such a big fixture. The Argentine was also carded in the second leg of the quarter-final against West Ham.

Ederson is the player we are backing to be carded in the opposition midfield. Only Marten de Roon has picked up more cards for Atalanta in Serie A this season. The Dutchman is injured for this one so Ederson could be more inclined to get stuck in and do the dirty work. The Brazilian is committing an average of 1.7 fouls per 90 minutes in the Europa League this season. He was carded in Atalanta’s like game in this competition. He is also likely to be directly up against Palacios, so let’s hope the Brazil and Argentina rivalry adds further fuel to what promises to be a fiery fixture.

Recommended Bet: Exequiel Palacios and Ederson to be carded at 9.40