Europa League & Conference League Betting Tips: how will Liverpool get on in Prague

European Football is back to keep our midweeks entertaining. In this article, I preview five bets, including goals involving two English teams, a clinical striker to continue his goalscoring streak and strong home records to continue in both Czech Republic and Portugal.

Freiburg vs West Ham

Kick Off: 20:00

Two familiar foes face off in Germany on Thursday night, as Freiburg host West Ham at Stade Europa-Park.

These two sides were in the same group, with the Hammers finishing three points ahead of their German counterparts. 

Freiburg are currently ninth in the Bundesliga after an impressive 2-2 draw with a Bayern Munich side who have won 11 straight titles. Christian Streich’s side qualified for this season's Europa League by virtue of a fifth-place finish, another fine achievement in the 58-year-olds 13-year reign at the Breisgau Brazilians. 

So far in the league, they’ve scored 32 goals and conceded 44 in 24 games, for an average of 3.1 goals. They have conceded the fourth most goals in the league, so Streitch will be desperate to fix his leaky defence.

Their end-to-end games have seen over 2.5 goals land in 16/24 league games (67%) including their last seven, as well as five out of six in the group stages. Freiburg’s Europa games were often entertaining, with these averaging four goals a game. All three home games as well as the home knockout tie with Lens saw over 2.5 goals. 

They host a West Ham side who aren’t shy of goals themselves. 

David Moyes has come in for criticism for his side's performances this season, with many feeling the Hammers are in a ‘false position’. Despite tending to favour pragmatism over attacking football, West Ham have scored 43 and conceded 47 in 27 games, for an average of 3.33. 

Five of their last seven league games have seen over 2.5 goals, as well as 11/14 (78.57%) of their league away games and 2/3 of the Europa League away games – including the reverse fixture.

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10

Sparta Prague vs Liverpool

Kick Off: 17:45

Sparta Prague have been the dominant team in the Czech Republic this season and currently sit top of the table. This owes a lot to their home record, winning 11 and drawing one of their 12 home games, scoring 32 and conceding just six in the process. 

Brian Priske’s side have also taken this strong home form into the Europa League, winning two and drawing one of their games at the epet ARENA in the group stages, before demolishing Galatasaray 4-1 in the second leg of the knockouts. 

Liverpool are the current 2.82 outright favourites for the Europa League, but they must navigate a tricky tie with Prague first. The Reds have already added another Carabao Cup to their trophy cabinet this season and Klopp will be desperate to win his first Europa League trophy with Liverpool in his final season. 

However, the league is surely his priority, and they face their biggest game of the season on Sunday just a few days after the Europa League clash. Manchester City are the visitors to Anfield in a title decider, so Klopp will hardly be blamed for having one eye on Sunday’s match.

Much was made of his side’s injury problems in the cup triumph over Chelsea, as well as many complaints over fixture congestion. With Liverpool missing a host of players and the aforementioned title decider a few days later, expect a rotated Liverpool squad. With Prague undefeated in all 18 home games this season, they will fancy their chances of adding to this run against a weakened Liverpool team. 

Prediction: Sparta Praha Double Chance @ 2.12 

Roma vs Brighton

Kick Off: 17:45

After topping the ‘group of death’, Brighton have been handed another tricky draw, facing off against Italian powerhouses Roma. 

Roma have been in fine form, with their only defeat in their last ten games coming against runaway leaders Inter Milan. Daniele De Rossi has transformed a stuttering team, winning seven, drawing one and losing one of his nine games in charge, with his side now 5th in Serie A.

The 40-year-old has breathed new life into I Giallorossi, with the Italians scoring 20 goals in his tenure thus far – a far cry from the pragmatism that we had become accustomed to under Jose Mourinho. 

Roma’s last eight league games have seen over 2.5 goals, bringing their season total to 17/27 (63%) – the second highest in the league. 

His opponent on Thursday evening is a fellow Italian in Roberto De Zerbi. De Rossi has gone on record to declare his admiration for the 44-year-old, claiming he has been a great mentor for him. 

However, Thursday should still be a fiery, attacking affair as two passionate managers lead their sides into battle.

The Seagull’s form has dropped off recently, being held to a draw at home to Everton, before successive away losses to Wolves in the FA Cup (1-0) and Fulham in the Premier League (3-0). It would be the manner of the defeats which would anger De Zerbi the most, with Brighton failing to put up much of a fight in either game. 

Albion would’ve expected to concede goals as they’ve only kept three league clean sheets all season, but it is their lack of attacking potency that would be the worry. 

With 49 goals scored and 44 conceded in 27 games, their games are averaging 3.44 goals, with 18/27 (67%) of their games seeing over 2.5 goals.

With two managers sharing an attacking philosophy, expect goals to flow at the Stadio Olimpico. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94

Benfica vs Rangers

Kick Off: 20:00

After finishing third in a disappointing Champions League group stage campaign, Benfica had to drop down to the Europa League. Tasked with a tough draw against Toulouse, Roger Schmidt’s side held firm and scraped through with a 2-1 win. 

Rangers stand in the way of them and a place in the quarter final. Both sides boast an impressive home record this season and these records will be imperative to qualify.

Benfica are unbeaten at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa in the league, winning 10 and drawing two of their home games, scoring 33 goals in the process and conceding just five. Of their 10 league home wins, eight have been by two or more goals, meaning this bet has paid out in 66.67% of home games, refunded in 16.667% and lost in 16.667%. 

While Rangers have been in impressive form under manager Philippe Clement, the step up between the SPL and the quality of Benfica is quite significant. Benfica will fancy their chances of a win and score a couple of goals to have a safety cushion before visiting a boisterous Ibrox. 

Prediction: Benfica -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.96

Ajax vs Aston Villa

Kick Off: 17:45

Undoubtedly the tie of the Europa Conference League knockouts sees four-time Champions League winners Ajax host outright favourites Aston Villa at the Johan Cruyff Arena.

Ajax endured a tough time in the Europa League group of death, scraping through to the Europa Conference League by virtue of winning just one game. Their poor European form and their disastrous league form saw manager Maurice Steijn relieved of his duties.

While the appointment of John van’t Schip has seen results improve, the 60-year-old is yet to fix the persistent defensive issues for the club, with Ajax only keeping three clean sheets in his 22 games in charge – with two coming at home to the bottom two in the league.

This will encourage an Aston Villa side who have only failed to score once in their last sixteen league games. Only the top three have scored more than Unai Emery’s side who sit fourth in the Premier League table in a bid for unlikely qualification for the Champions League.

Ollie Watkins' 26 goal contributions (16 goals & 10 assists) have been a major reason for Villa’s form, with only Erling Haaland scoring more league goals than the 28-year-old. 

Despite this, he has only started three games in the Europa League, scoring five goals. With the injury to Jhon Duran, Watkins should get the start and will fancy his chances of scoring against a leaky Ajax defence.

Prediction: Ollie Watkins to score @ 2.08

Recommended Bets:

Back over 2.5 goals in Freiburg vs West Ham @ 2.10
Back Sparta Prague to win or draw against Liverpool @ 2.12
Back over 2.5 goals in Roma vs Brighton @ 1.94
Back Benfica to beat Rangers with a -1 Asian handicap @ 1.96
Back Ollie Watkins to score for Aston Villa vs Ajax @ 2.08