Europa League & Conference League Betting Tips: Will the English sides improve after disappointing performances last week

After a disappointing tipsheet last week, I am back to redeem myself with selections involving all five UK-based clubs.

Sparta Prague vs Liverpool 

Kick Off: 20:00

After an enthralling draw with Manchester City in a potential title decider, Liverpool host Sparta Prague at Anfield, with a comfortable 5-1 lead to hold on to. 

The first leg saw Liverpool win at a canter, heading into half-time three goals to the good thanks to a Darwin Nunez brace. The Reds dominated from start to finish, with the game lacking any sort of competitive edge. 

This meant a lack of aggressiveness in the game, with the visitors only conceding nine fouls, picking up zero cards in the process. 

With a 5-1 lead and an FA Cup quarter final with bitter rivals Manchester United on the horizon, coupled with an injury crisis, Jurgen Klopp is very likely to rotate, leading to a low-intensity game. Those that do play will be keen not to receive a pointless yellow ahead of the latter stages. 

While referee Artur Dias Soares is renowned for his tendency to show yellow cards, he has been surprisingly reluctant to dish them out in Europe this year. Of his three European games, he has shown only eight cards. 

On top of this, Liverpool have only received 1.29 cards per home game in the league, as well as just one yellow in their three European home games thus far, failing to receive a card in their last two home games in all competitions. 

Prediction: Under Liverpool 0.5 cards @ 2.68

West Ham vs Freiburg

Kick Off: 17:45

West Ham face Freiburg for the fourth time this season, with this game being the most vital of the lot. 

The Hammers were mightily disappointing in their trip to Germany, succumbing to a 1-0 defeat. After consecutive wins (4-2 & 1-3) in the Premier League, West Ham fans would’ve been surprised at their side’s lacklustre performance in Europe. 

However, in front of their own fans in a must-win game, the normally pragmatic David Moyes may have to go against his principles and attack from the front. 

If they are to progress, top scorer Jarrod Bowen is imperative. The 27-year-old is enjoying a fruitful season in-front of goal, boasting 17 goals thus far. In the Premier League, Bowen has averaged 0.52 goals per game, showcasing his clinical nature. 

The Irons will be encouraged by Breisgau-Brasiliane’s poor away record, conceding 26 goals in 13 league away games. 

Christian Streich’s side have only kept three league away clean sheets all season and will be dreading the thought of facing up against the inform England international.

Prediction: Jarrod Bowen To Score @ 2.84

Rangers vs Benfica

Kick Off: 17:45

Last week’s tie at the Estádio Da Luz was a classic, with the sides playing out an entertaining 2-2 draw. With a boisterous Ibrox behind the hosts, expect something similar again this week.

Rangers rank top of the Scottish Premiership for over games seeing ‘over 2.5’ goals, with 11/15 (73%) of league games at Ibrox seeing three or more goals. Excluding Scottish Cup games, 11 of Rangers last 12 games have seen over 2.5 goals. An added caveat to this bet is that the last three meetings between the sides have seen a minimum of four goals per game. 

Benfica ranks fifth in the Primeira Liga for ‘over 2.5’ goals, with 16/25 (64% of their games seeing over 2.5 goals). Benfica have also seen over 2.5 goals land in 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions – the exception a 0-0 draw at Toulouse in a game in which the Eagles were holding on to a 2-1 lead from the first leg. 

With both teams expected to attack from the front, expect another end-to-end game in Glasgow.

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70

Brighton vs Roma

Kick Off: 20:00

Brighton’s debut European campaign seems to have come to a crashing conclusion after a demolition in Rome, losing 4-0 to Danielle De Rossi’s side. However, there is still hope amongst the Brighton fanbase that a comeback is plausible, much owing to their 13-match unbeaten streak at home. 

What can you expect though from two Italian managers in Roberto De Zerbi and Danielle De Rossi is a feisty affair. The two coaches wear their hearts on their sleeves, and this is sure to make an entertaining battle on the South Coast.

In terms of yellow cards, Brighton rank fourth in the Premier League, averaging 2.50 a game. Opponents of the Seagulls have also picked up a league high 2.81 yellows per game. 

In the Europa League thus far, Albion have received 19 yellows in seven games for an average of 2.71 per game. The only game they did not receive two or more cards was in the 0-1 win over AEK Athens in which their opponents received two yellows as well as a red.

Roma also ranks highly for cards in their league, with I Giallorossi receiving 2.61 yellows per game – ranking them second for this metric in Serie A. They also rank top for away cards received (3.07). De Rossi’s opponents also rank fourth in the league for cards received, being brandished an average of 2.54 yellows per game. 

Refereeing this affair is German referee Felix Zwayer who has shown an average of over 5 cards per game this season.

Prediction: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards @ 1.81

Aston Villa vs Ajax

Kick Off: 20:00

Sunday’s match against Tottenham Hotspur was arguably one of the biggest league games in Villa’s recent history. Unai Emery’s side ultimately succumbed to the pressure, losing 4-0 despite the scores being level at half time.

The second-half capitulation was not ideal preparation for this Thursday’s crunch clash, but Emery will not fret and will see it just as a blip.

His Villains side still boast the fourth best home record in the Premier League, accumulating 31 points from 14 home games – with only the three title challengers gaining more. They were also strong at home in their three home Conference Leagues games, winning all of them.

Ajax on the other hand have only the 10th best away record in the Eredivisie, winning just four of their 12 games, conceding 28 goals in the process. They only gained one point in their three group stages away games, nicking a draw away at AEK Athens before losing 2-0 at Brighton and 4-3 at Marseille.

They have conceded 37 goals in their last 15 away games and are yet to keep a clean sheet in any of these. Aston Villa will fancy their chances of extending Ajax’s dismal run.

Prediction: Aston Villa -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00

Recommended Bets: 

Back Liverpool under 0.5 cards vs Sparta Prague @ 2.68
Back Jarrod Bowen to Score for West Ham vs Freiburg @ 2.84
Back Over 2.5 goals in Rangers vs Benfica @ 1.70
Back Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards in Brighton vs Roma @ 1.81
|Back Aston Villa to Beat Ajax with a -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00