Europa Conference League Final Betting Tips: Who will come out on top in Athens?

Olympiacos and Fiorentina square off in Athens to determine who will be crowned the third winner of the Europa Conference League. The Italian side last won a European trophy in 1961. Olympiacos, on the other hand, have never had success on the continent.

The Form

Jose Luis Mendilibar has had 22 games in charge of Olympiacos. It’s been a difficult season for the Greek giants but things have been more promising under the new boss. They were hugely impressive in the last round as they beat tournament favourites Aston Villa 6-2 on aggregate. Making it the final has given the fans something to cheer about after a third-placed finish in the domestic league.

There are parallels to when Mendilibar took charge at Sevilla last season. The Spanish side were in a relegation battle at that point but Jose was able to steer them to a Europa League triumph. Olympiacos were far from the relegation zone but it was a squad of players that needed to be galvanised. 

Fiorentina were beaten 2-1 by West Ham in the final of the Europa Conference League last season. Since then, they have enjoyed a 13-match unbeaten run in Europe. They scraped past Club Brugge at the semi-final stage thanks to a late penalty from Lucas Beltran in the second leg. The Italian side dominated proceedings but were unable to make the chances pay. They will be hoping to be more clinical in the final.

Italiano’s side have struggled for consistency in Serie A so they had to settle for an eighth-placed finish. Fiorentina won just six of their 19 league matches since the start of the calendar year.

The Runners and Riders

Fiorentina has almost their whole squad available for this clash. Riccardo Sottil is the only player unavailable for selection. Vincenzo Italiano likes to rotate his squad so it’ll be interesting to see their team for this one.

Olympiacos has most of their big hitters available but there are some absentees. Guilan Biancone, Bandiougou Fadiga and Doron Leidner will all miss out on this massive fixture.

What They Said

Reaching the final is a huge achievement for Olympiacos. Jose Luis Mendilibar has reflected on the reaction of the fans in an interview with UEFA ahead of this final. The Spaniard said “People cheer like mad on the streets too. Anyone who recognises you stops to say hi. They stop your car and they're crazy happy. I just hope they'll be just as happy after the final.”

There is also huge pressure on Fiorentina. Vincenzo Italiano hopes his side can go one better and lift the trophy this time around. He said “Last season we had a great journey, although the end wasn't so great. This year we have repeated it, which wasn't easy. We will try to do our best because Fiorentina have not won a trophy for many years. “

Selection

Fiorentina’s matches in the Europa Conference League have seen plenty of fouls. They are the third most fouled team in the competition and their matches have seen plenty of cards as a result. There has been an average of 5.58 cards in their European matches in this campaign.

Olympiacos matches in the Conference League have seen far fewer cards with an average of 3.88. However, their last match in this tournament against Aston Villa saw six cards. There were seven cards in their last match of the domestic season against Panathinaikos. 

The high-stakes nature of the final also lends itself nicely to card betting. Fiorentina lost the final of this competition in agonising fashion last season. That 2-1 defeat against West Ham saw eight cards dished out by the referee.

Artur Manuel Ribero Soares Dias is the man at the whistle for this clash. He officiates games in Portugal and ranks highly in terms of yellow cards. his average of 6.64 cards per game in the Primeira Liga is well above the league average of 5.42. He has previously refereed in the Greek Super League. There were six cards handed out the last time he ruled over an Olympiacos match in 2023.

Recommended Bet: Over 4.5 cards at 1.67 

Bet Builder Tip

Corners and cards are on the agenda for our bet builder tip. We are backing over 5.5 cards in the match as well as Fiorentina to win the race to seven corners. The potential for cards has already been discussed in our single tip so we are focusing on corners here.

Fiorentina have won the third most corners per game in the Europa Conference League this season with an average of 6.67 per game. They hit the seven-corner mark in both legs of their semi-final against Club Brugge. In fact, this betting angle has won in four of their six matches in the knockout stages.

Olympiacos showed a willingness to play on the counter against Aston Villa. This could be an effective strategy once again but it would also give Fiorentina the chance to rack up the corners. Unai Emery’s side had nine corners in the second leg of the semi-final.

Recommended Bet: Over 5.5 cards and Fiorentina race to 7 corners at 6.00