Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Tipsheet: Who will go through to the last four?

Friday and Saturday see a bumper two-day football bonanza. Friday kicks off with a mouth-watering clash between Spain and Germany - both countries have been incredibly impressive so far. Two strong but underwhelming sides in France and Portugal await either nation in the semi-final. 

On Saturday, pre-tournament favourites England will look to improve on their underwhelming start against a Swiss side who defeated the reigning champions in the last round. The final quarter-final game is set to be an end-to-end thriller between Turkey and Netherlands. 

Spain vs Germany

Kick Off: 17:00

Arguably the two best teams this Euros so far face off in Stuttgart, with Spain playing Germany. 

Luis De La Fuente has re-invented a stuttering Spain side, adding flair and pace to an already technical possession-based team. 

Captain Alvaro Morata spearheads an otherwise youthful, new-look attack, with 21-year-old Nico Williams and 16-year-old Lamine Yamal providing pace and dynamism on the flanks. 

Yamal’s Barcelona teammate Pedri adds flair to a midfield containing Manchester City’s Rodri and PSG’s Fabian Ruiz. 

Rodri is trusted as a single pivot, giving Ruiz and Pedri the opportunity to flourish further up the pitch. Ruiz in particular has shone, scoring twice in three starts, as well as making two assists. 

Per 90, the 28-year-old is averaging 3.81 shots and 1.73 shots on target, also having 2.08 touches in the opposition box. 

Both of his goals have come from inside the penalty area, with five of his 11 shots also within the six-yard box. Standing at over 6’2, Ruiz is also a threat from set pieces – an added facet to his game that makes him such a goal threat. 

With an open, end-to-end game expected, Ruiz looks a nice price to continue his fine shooting form. 

Prediction: Fabian Ruiz shot on target @ 2.32

France vs Portugal 

Kick Off: 20:00

Didier Deschamps’ side came into this tournament as the second favourites but have flattered to deceive so far. 

They opened their account with a 1-0 victory over Austria, with a Maximilian Wöber own-goal the difference between the sides. A dull stalemate with Netherlands followed before penalties from Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski saw France and Poland draw. 

Two draws and a win was enough to secure qualification but meant a tough fixture against Belgium was in store. It was a slow and lethargic match in which France struggled to break down a resilient Belgium low block until an 85th-minute Jan Vertonghen own goal broke Belgian hearts. 

It means a France player is yet to score from open play in this tournament – a problem Les Bleus must address if they are to progress past a strong Portugal side. Still, France will take confidence in the fact they’ve conceded just 0.45 xG per game from open play. 

Portugal secured the top spot with 2-1 and 3-0 wins over Czech Republic and Turkey respectively. This meant that Roberto Martinez could field a much-rotated side against perennial underdogs Georgia, with only Diogo Costa and Cristiano Ronaldo retaining their place in the 2-0 defeat. 

They faced a Slovenian side that drew all three games and proved a tough nut to crack. Portugal struggled to break down Matjaz Kek’s side, with Cristiano Ronaldo having a late penalty saved by Jan Oblak, meaning a penalty shootout was needed to separate the sides. 

Bruno Fernandes has been trusted with a slightly more defensive role in this side. The Manchester United creative maestro has so far made a foul in all three starts and faces an arduous task against a French side packed with talent. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals & Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 fouls committed @ 2.06

England vs Switzerland

Kick Off: 17:00

England came into this tournament as the favourites, boasting a plethora of attacking talent. Phil Foden won the Premier League Player of the Season Award; Jude Bellingham won the La Liga Player of the Season and Harry Kane claimed the Bundesliga Golden Boot. Yet, the Three Lions have looked devoid of any attacking creativity or intent. 

Gareth Southgate’s men topped their group with five points and faced Slovakia in the knockouts. Ivan Scrhanz scored his third goal of the tournament in the 25th minute – a goal that looked set to help Slovakia secure a famous win. 

However, a stunning Jude Bellingham overhead kick in the last minute of the game saw England force an undeserved draw. The clinical Harry Kane put England in the lead early in extra time, and their defensive resilience saw them see the game through. It made it four games from four that an England game had less than three goals. 

The Three Lions have accumulated just 3.71 xG over 390 minutes of football, conceding just 3.30 xG in this same time. 

Switzerland started their tournament with a commanding 3-1 win over Hungary before 1-1 draws with Scotland and Germany saw Murat Yakin’s side progress in second place, where they would face reigning European champions Italy. 

Switzerland swept Italy aside with aplomb, thanks to goals on either side of the half from Remo Freuler and Ruben Vargas. They dominated from minute one, with Italy struggling to create a chance of note, despite having 11 shots. 

The five-at-the-back formation deployed by Yakin may cause England issues, so expect a low-scoring, tenacious draw. 

Prediction: Switzerland double chance and under 2.5 goals @ 2.02

Netherlands vs Turkey

Kick Off: 20:00 

Prior to the tournament, much was made of Ronald Koeman’s supposed pragmatism, with the 61-year-old favouring a lopsided 4-2-3-1 as opposed to a five-defender formation that would perhaps get the best out of his team. 

Still, Netherlands navigated a tricky group, beating Poland and drawing to France, before losing 3-2 to Austria in a topsy-turvy encounter. 

Romania, who topped their group were the opponents – a game in which Oranje won 3-0 with ease. In four games, Netherlands have accumulated 6.56 xG, conceding 3.98. Three of their four games have seen over 2.5 goals. 

Turkey have entertained the masses this tournament, with all three of their group games seeing over 2.5 goals. A last 16 clash against Austria promised to be the game of the tournament and certainly lived up to the hype, with Vincenzo Montella’s side winning an end-to-end game 2-1. 

Ay-Yıldızlılar are averaging 1.53 xG per game, with their opponents seeing a whooping 2.00 xG. 

With Turkey’s high-octane style of play and Netherlands significant firepower in attack – most notably Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo who has three goals, over 2.5 goals presents serious value – a bet that has landed seven out of eight times combined for these teams. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73

Recommended Bets

Back Fabian Ruiz to have a shot on target in Spain vs Germany @ 2.32
Back Under 2.5 goals & Bruno Fernandes over 0.5 fouls committed in Portugal vs France @ 2.06
Back Switzerland double chance & Under 2.5 goals in Switzerland vs England @ 2.02
Back over 2.5 goals in Netherlands vs Turkey @ 1.73