Euro 2024 Last 16 Tipsheet: Will England get past Slovakia and could Georgia upset the odds again?

After a thoroughly entertaining group stage, we enter into the knockout rounds of Euro 2024. Sunday sees a lacklustre England side face off against a Slovakia side who have already upset the odds by beating Belgium before perennial underdogs Georgia look to claim another monumental scalp against a rampant Spain. 

England vs Slovakia

Kick Off: 17:00

Much has been made of England’s uninspiring and lethargic start to the tournament, with Gareth Southgate being lambasted for his pragmatism and failure to get the most out of a supremely talented squad.  

Still, the Three Lions topped the group, conceding just one goal – a long-range strike from Danish midfielder Morten Hjulmand. While England have flattered to deceive going forward, defensively they have been as resolute as ever. They have now conceded just eight goals in their last 15 major tournament games, keeping ten clean sheets in this time. 

They face a Slovakia side who defied expectations by qualifying for the knockouts, with all four teams in Group E finishing level on four points. Francesco Calzona’s side qualified on goal difference, with a win and a draw enough to place them as one of the best placed third place teams. 

After shocking the continent in beating Belgium 1-0 in the opener, Slovakia then went on to lose 2-1 to Ukraine and draw 1-1 with Romania, setting up a match with England on Sunday. 

Despite Slovakia’s impressive exploits in the group stage, they face their biggest attacking test yet against a side that has conceded just 1.15 xG all tournament. Slovakia have accumulated just 2.29 xG this tournament, so it seems a mismatch in defensive and attacking metrics. 

An improvement on the lacklustre group stage performance is a MUST for the Three Lions, so a fast start is expected. England’s two goals have come in the thirteenth and eighteenth minute of their games. If they repeat this against Slovakia, Francesco Calzona’s side may struggle to break down a defence that has proven pretty impenetrable thus far. 

Prediction: England to win and BTTS NO @ 1.95

Spain vs Georgia

Kick Off: 20:00

Georgia have won the hearts of football lovers across the continent. Willy Sagnol’s side have played with heart, endeavour and courage – traits that have seen them unexpectedly progress to the knockout stages in their first ever major tournament. 

They started with a 3-1 defeat to Turkey in one of the games of the tournament, before drawing 1-1 with Czech Republic. These results meant Jvarosnebi went into their final match against Portugal needing a win to progress. It was arduous for them – even with Roberto Martinez rotating heavily. 

Still, it took just two minutes for Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to open the scoring after a swift counterattack. Georgia stood firm before Georges Mikautadze doubled the scoreline from the penalty spot after an hour. The clean sheet was secured, mainly thanks to Giorgi Mamardashvili again, with the Valencia goalkeeper racking up five saves. 

What makes Georgia’s progress even more remarkable is the underlying metrics. They have conceded a tournament-high 8.13 non-penalty xG over their three games. For comparison, Albania have conceded the second most with 5.76. 

In addition, Georgia are averaging just 36.66% possession per game, with Sagnol’s side happy to soak up and absorb pressure. They face their biggest challenge yet against a possession-hungry Spain side that have yet to concede a goal. 

Despite being pitted in the ‘group of death’, Spain escaped the group stage without a scratch. In the opener, Luis De La Fuente’s side rushed into a 3-0 halftime lead against Croatia, accumulating a 2.01 xG. Next, they beat Italy 1-0, racking up a 2.02 xG. Finally, a heavily rotated side beat Albania 1-0 with a 1.51 xG. 

All in all, Spain have accumulated 5.54 xG thus far and will be relishing the opportunity to play against a leaky Georgian defence. With many Spain goals expected, we will delve into the goalscorer market. 

Alvaro Morata opened Spain’s account for the tournament when he calmly slotted past Dominik Livakovic after just 20 minutes, before coming off with a slight knock in the 67th minute. He was close to adding to his tally against Italy, having four shots, with two on target. He was given just 18 minutes off the bench against Albania so should be well-rested.   

He enjoyed a relatively fruitful season at club level for Atletico Madrid, scoring 21 goals in 48 appearances. The 31-year-old has a considerable record for his national team, scoring 36 goals in 76 caps, including three in four starts at the last World Cup.

With Spain expected to dominate against a leaky Georgia defence, Alvaro Morata will be expecting to add to his goal tally, as he chases an illustrious golden boot. 

Prediction: Alvaro Morata to score @ 2.00