Euro 2024 Last 16 Tipsheet: Will Germany book their place in the quarter-finals?

After a scintillating group stage full of stunning goals and shocking upsets, it is now time for knockout football. Saturday’s action sees Switzerland face the reigning champions, Italy, in Berlin before Germany meet Denmark in Dortmund.

Switzerland vs Italy 

17:00 Saturday, 29th June

Switzerland were moments away from topping Group A. They led Germany until Niclas Fullkrug snatched an equalising goal in the 92nd minute. The solid performance against one of the frontrunners to win the tournament will have given them confidence ahead of the knockout stages. 

Italy needed a dramatic 98th-minute goal from Mattia Zaccagni to secure second place in Group B and a place in the last 16. The holders of the trophy have struggled thus far but find themselves in what is undoubtedly the easiest half of the draw. A win over the Swiss could set up a repeat of the Euro 2021 final against England in the next round.

Switzerland showed plenty of attacking impetus from the off. They looked as though they could blow the Hungarians away in the opening game of the group and they went on to secure a 3-1 win. Murat Yakin’s side had 15 shots in that game but it is the saves market we are focusing on here. Peter Gulacsi was between the sticks for Hungary and made four saves. We are backing Gianluigi Donnarumma to make over 2.5 saves for Italy. The only opposition keeper to not make three saves against the Swiss so far is Manuel Neuer. The veteran made two saves but Switzerland were less inclined to attack with the team leading for the vast majority of the game. 

Italy were in control after going 1-0 down in their first game against Albania but it went downhill from there. They were fortunate not to lose by more than one goal when they played Spain. Donnarumma was a busy man on that day, making a total of eight saves. He also made three saves in the final group game against Croatia.

Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Saved Gianluigi Donnarumma at 1.88

Germany vs Denmark

20:00 Saturday, 29th June

Prior to the scare against Switzerland, Germany would have been most people’s pick for the best team in the group stages. Julian Nagelsmann has got his talented team all singing from the same hymn sheet. The nightmare of the last World Cup under Hansi Flick seems to be a distant memory but the knockout stages are where things start to heat up for the hosts.

Denmark will have no fear coming into this one. They faced England, the tournament favourites, in the group and were perhaps unfortunate not to come away with the win. 

The Danes have committed an average of 11 fouls across their three games in the tournament so far, which is just below the average of 11.24 fouls per team but the price for Pierre-Emile to make at least two fouls in this one appeals. The Tottenham midfielder will be without his usual midfield partner Morten Hjulmand, after he was booked in the last game against Serbia. Hojberg is likely to take on more defensive responsibility as a result. 

Hojberg has made at least one foul in all three of Denmark’s games at Euro 2024. He made two fouls when they took on England and they face a German side that has similar quality to Southgate’s men in the middle of the park on Saturday. He averaged 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes for Tottenham in the Premier League last season but there is the potential for more with his national team set to be under the cosh here. 

Remo Freuler and Granit Xhaka, the starting central midfielders for Switzerland in Germany’s last game, combined for six fouls. The Danish pairing will look at how the Swiss disrupted the rhythm of Die Mansschaft and look to replicate that.

Recommended Bet: Over 1.5 Fouls For Pierre-Emile Hojberg at 2.58