Euro 2024 Last 16 Tipsheet: Will France sweep Belgium aside this evening?

Andy Schooler previews Monday’s last-16 matches at Euro 2024 – including the France v Belgium showdown.

France v Belgium

Kick-off: 17:00, ITV

Six years ago, the meeting of these neighbours came in the semi-finals of the World Cup and it was a high-quality, closely-contested game.

While the latter may well apply again this time around, what we’ve seen so far at this tournament suggests the quality aspect may struggle to deliver.

France, well fancied prior to a ball being kicked, are yet to score from open play and won only one of their three group games as they missed out on top spot to fall on the ‘wrong’ side of the draw.

The good news for them is that the underlying numbers are good – France had the joint-best expected-goals (xG) figure in the group stage and conceded the third-fewest shots.

The latter looks fairly significant with Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku and Kevin de Bruyne both in double figures already for shots taken.

For all their efforts on goal, Belgium have also struggled though. They recovered from their opening-game loss to Slovakia by beating Romania 2-0 but then reverted to their disappointing ways when drawing 0-0 with Ukraine to finish second in their group.

While Lukaku has had no fewer than three goals disallowed, there’s been a general lack of cutting edge and they were booed off after creating little against Ukraine.

Like France, they have at least shown defensive strength, boasting the fourth-best expected goals against (xGA) figure in the group stage.

Although the level of opposition rises here, I still see this being a low-scoring contest.

The under 2.5 goals bet has landed in all six games these teams have been involved in so far at Euro 2024 and, with confidence buoyed by those defensive numbers, can deliver for its backers again.

For something a bit bigger – and those prepared to take a risk – Lukaku for 2+ shots on target has potential at 3.95.

The Chelsea striker has landed this in 12 of his last 16 appearances for the Red Devils, including all three at this tournament, plus games with Germany and Croatia.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65
Prediction: Romelu Lukaku 2+ shots on target @ 3.95

Portugal v Slovenia

Kick-off: 20:00, BBC

The stats look good for Portugal as they head into the knockout stages.

In the group stage, they were joint top for expected goals (xG) and were second best in terms of conceding shots.

That’s a decent combination but, heading into this last-16 tie, they will be wary of the fact they lost to Slovenia as recently as March, going down 2-0 in a friendly.

That will boost the underdogs, who will likely sit pretty deep again having enjoyed plenty of success in thwarting England in their final group game, to earn the point they needed to reach this stage.

The issue here is that Portugal have looked a more threatening side than England, whose lateral movement of the ball has proved easy to defend against most of the time.

With players like Bruno Fernandes looking to either carry or pass the ball vertically up the pitch, Portugal should be able to break down Slovenia.

Fernandes is a player who has been on my radar since the start.

It’s been well publicised that he had the most assists in qualifying (eight) but less reported that he’s now on a great scoring run of 10 goals in his last 14 Portugal appearances, scoring in eight of those games.

At 2.84 to score at any time here, the Manchester United man looks worth backing.

For those putting a Bet Builder together, I also like the look of a couple in the fouls market.

The two Slovenia centre-backs were both in fouling mood against England and look set for a busy night again with Cristiano Ronaldo operating in their vicinity.

Vanja Drkusic has committed a foul in all four competitive starts for his country, while Jaka Bijol – carded against England following three fouls – has delivered one in 10 of his last 14 caps.

The double pays 2.38 which looks fair.

Prediction: Bruno Fernandes anytime scorer @ 2.84
Prediction: Drkusic & Bijol to commit 1+ foul each @ 2.38

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 goals in France v Belgium @ 1.65
Back Romelu Lukaku 2+ shots on target in France v Belgium @ 3.95
Back Bruno Fernandes anytime scorer in Portugal v Slovenia @ 2.84
Back Vanja Drkusic & Jaka Bijol to commit 1+ foul each in Portugal v Slovenia @ 2.38

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