Euro 2024 Group E Betting Guide: Can Romania upset the odds and trump Belgium?

According to the market, this is the most one-sided of all Euro 2024’s groups. Belgium are the shortest price of any team to top a group at 1.35 and given the lack of international pedigree in Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia it is hard to argue with the market. 

However, in international football nothing is ever easy and I do think Belgium could be vulnerable in this group - remember they didn’t qualify from their 2022 World Cup group despite being heavily favoured to do so.

The Teams

Belgium - 1.35

Despite having one of the most talented squads in Europe for the last decade, the only time Belgium have really made an impression in a major tournament was the 2018 World Cup when they got knocked out by France at the semi-final stage. In European Championships, the furthest they have ever got is the quarter-final.

Despite a disappointing World Cup campaign in Qatar, they currently find themselves third in the FIFA world rankings. They were one of only five teams to go through qualification undefeated, winning six and drawing two of their eight matches. Their record and goal difference is identical to pre-tournament favourites England. 

While some of their best players may have passed their peak or even retired, there is still a lot of talent at their disposal. Loïs Openda and Jeremy Doku are the two young talents that are now spearheading the Belgium attack. Despite lacking a star defender or goalkeeper, they only conceded four goals in qualifying.

Key Man: Kevin De Bruyne

There isn’t a team in world football that would turn down the chance to have Kevin De Bruyne in it. Despite his advancing years, he is still the player Manchester City turn to for inspiration on the rare occasion things aren’t going their way.

Due to injury, he has only appeared for his country twice since the World Cup but did contribute a goal and two assists on his last outing against Germany. His next international appearance will be the 100th time he has played for his country, during which he has contributed 26 goals and 49 assists. 

One to watch: Arthur Vermeeren 

At only 18-years-old Vermeeren was involved in one of the biggest moves of the January transfer window as he moved from Royal Antwerp to Atletico Madrid for €30 million. The defensive midfield is yet to make an impact in Spain, featuring only three times but he is a future investment.

For the national side, he has also only appeared three times but completed 90 minutes in a win over Serbia and a 0-0 draw with the Republic of Ireland. His progress through the age-group teams was rapid, he made his debut for the senior side just a month after his first u21 appearance. 

Fixtures:

17 June vs Slovakia
22 June vs Romania
26 June vs Ukraine

Betting trend: Belgium to score over 1.5 goals per game

It was a prolific qualifying campaign for Belgium as they racked up 22 goals in eight matches - averaging 2.75 a game. In tournament play, matches are likely to be a bit tighter with more on the line. Therefore over 1.5 goals seems a safe bet.

Ukraine - 6.2

A promising Euro 2020 campaign was ended by England with a 4-0 win at the quarter-final stage in Rome. They then failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup but this summer they are back at a major tournament.

For their qualification, they unfortunately ended up in the same group as Italy and England which made making it to Germany this summer an uphill task. They still managed to win four of their eight matches and finished level on points with Italy on 14. The Italians had goal difference to thank for their automatic progression to Euro 2024. 

Ukraine on the other hand, had to beat Bosnia & Herzegovina and Iceland back-to-back to seal their place at the tournament. A task they completed with a pair of 2-1 wins. 

Key Man: Oleksander Zinchenko 

The Arsenal defender might have had a tricky season in North London, but he remains an integral part of the national team. Unlike for his club, he is typically found in a central midfield role where he can try to have as much influence on the game as possible. 

Zinchenko made his debut for Ukraine back in 2015 at the age of just 18, he has made 60 appearances for his country, having 14 goal involvements.

One to watch: Georgiy Sudakov

Although he is more than capable of playing on the left of midfield, the 21-year-old will likely play in a central attacking midfield role for Ukraine. Sudakov has made 14 appearances for the national side so far and despite only finding the back of the net once, he has chipped in with three assists, including two in their final play-off qualifying match against Iceland.

He plays his club football for Shakhtar Donetsk where he has enjoyed a productive season with 16 goal involvements in his 34 appearances.

Fixtures:

17 June vs Romania
21 June vs Slovakia
26 June vs Belgium

Betting trend: Over 2.5 saves

Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin, Benfica’s Anatoliy Trubin and Dynamo Kyiv’s Georgiy Buschan are all in contention for the No.1 spot. Whoever is chosen is likely to face a lot of shots, in qualifying they made an average of 3.1 saves per match. Against high quality opposition expect that number to either remain the same or increase, therefore over 2.5 saves seems a solid choice.

Romania - 6.8

There were six teams that went undefeated through qualifying, of all of them Romania were the most unexpected. However, it is actually a feat they have managed twice before, when qualifying for Euro 2016 and Euro 2000. In Euro 2000, the team managed to reach the quarter-final stage of the tournament, the only time they have got out of the group.

Their six-team qualifying group meant they played ten matches, making the five goals they conceded all the more impressive. They drew four of their ten matches, winning the other six including victories over Switzerland and Israel. 

While it is hard to see past Belgium winning the group, Romania may well be worth backing as the other team to qualify for the knockout stages.

Star Man: Radu Dragusin 

The 22-year-old defender signed for Tottenham back in January from Genoa. While he is yet to make much of an impact in the Premier League, he has recently become vital for Romania. 

He has only made 15 appearances for the national team, almost entirely at centre half, but in those matches they have kept seven clean sheets. He also played the full 90 minutes in nine of their ten qualifying matches, underlying his importance to Romania.

One to watch: Dennis Man

The right-winger has enjoyed a productive season at Parma with 11 goals and six assists in 32 appearances. 

Despite making his debut back in 2018, he has failed to nail down a place in the national side only appearing 22 times. In those 22 appearances he has contributed seven goals and two assists. In their most recent friendlies, he scored against Northern Ireland and then grabbed an assist against Columbia.

Fixtures:

17 June vs Ukraine
22 June vs Belgium
26 June vs Slovakia

Betting trend: Under 2.5 goals per game

A water-tight defence was the basis for Romania’s success in qualifying, conceding just five goals in their ten games. At the other end of the pitch, their attack is hardly free-flowing, scoring 1.6 goals a game. Their matches averaged just 2.1 goals in qualifying so backing under 2.5 seems sensible.

Slovakia - 10.0

Slovakia have got the longest odds to top the group, but when looking at their qualifying record and squad it is hard to see why. Their six-team group was headed by Portugal who won every game at a canter, but Slovakia still picked up seven wins and a draw to finish a comfortable second on 22 points.

Their record in the competition varies wildly depending on whether you include their time as Czechoslovakia or not. As Czechoslovakia they won the tournament in 1976 and finished third in both 1960 and 1980. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, they became Slovakia and they have only qualified for two tournaments since 2016 and 2020, making it to the round of 16 in the former.

Key Man: Stanislav Lobotka

The defensive midfielder was one of the key players in Napoli’s Serie A winning team last season, playing in every match. This season he has been equally important, featuring in 96% of the minutes his side have played this season.

He made his debut for the national team back in 2016, but since Euro 2020 he has nailed down the defensive midfield position as his own, playing in that role on each of his last 25 starts.

One to watch: Róbert Bozeník

Bozenik plies his trade in Portugal for mid-table Boavista, the young striker has scored nine goals in his 30 league appearances so far this season.

The 24-year-old has become a regular in the Slovakia team, only missing two games in qualifying. His 39 international appearances have only produced ten goal involvements but with a decent club season behind him it will be interesting to see if Bozenik can find the back of the net in Germany.

Fixtures: 

17 June vs Belgium
22 June vs Ukraine
26 June vs Romania

Betting trend: BTTS - No

It takes a brave person to back both teams not to score, but with Slovakia that could be the way to go. Their ten qualifying matches only produced 25 goals, but more interestingly in six of the games one of the teams failed to score.