Euro 2024 Group D Betting Guide: Can anyone stop Mbappe and France?

While Group B has earned the official designation of group of death, Group D isn’t far behind it in difficulty. 

France are strong favourites to top the group and the Netherlands look likely to follow them into the knockout stages, but with Poland and Austria making up the other two spots there are no easy games in this one.

The Teams

France - 1.53

It is hardly surprising that France are odds on to top this group. They have been the best team in international football for the last eight years, getting to three finals in their last four tournaments. That’s more than England have reached in their entire history. 

They qualified in typically dominant fashion winning seven of their eight games and drawing just one. Their 14-0 victory over Gibraltar which included ten different goalscorers and a Kylian Mbappé hat-trick was a particular stand out. Their goal difference of +26 was by far the best of any team in qualification.

Their performance at Euro 2020 was a disappointing one as they bowed out at the round of 16 stage after losing on penalties to Switzerland in one of the games of the tournament. It also took penalties to beat them in the World Cup final in Qatar. The last time they lost an international knockout game in 120 minutes was the final of Euro 2016 - a remarkable run.

Key man: Kylian Mbappé

France have a wealth of attacking talent but there is still no doubt over the identity of their key man. Kylian Mbappé is the most electrifying player in the world with incredible pace and power. His World Cup final hat-trick will live long in the memory for all those who witnessed it. 

Despite only being 25, he has already been handed the captain’s armband and is third on France’s list of international goalscorers with 46. He has enjoyed a productive season at PSG, scoring 43 goals in 44 appearances.

If the rumours are to be believed, Mbappé will be playing his football in the white of Real Madrid next season. If that move becomes complicated it might be a distraction for him - opposition sides will certainly be hoping so.

One to watch: Mike Maignan

The retirement of Hugo Lloris meant France lost not just their captain and most capped player in their history, but also their goalkeeper. 

Maignan has stepped in to fill the void and after not making it off the bench for 34 matches, he is keen to make the spot his own. He has enjoyed a strong start to his international career keeping clean sheets in seven of his 14 appearances. He plays his club football at AC Milan where he has kept 15 clean sheets in 42 matches this term.

Fixtures:

17 June vs Austria
21 June vs Netherlands
25 June vs Poland

Betting trend: France to score over 2.5 goals

France are equipped with one of the best attacks in international football. While being led by Mbappé he is supported by Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Randal Kolo Muani and Moussa Diaby. There is some doubt over whether or not Antoine Griezmann will be playing in the summer after he was shunned for the captaincy but if he does he will be another threat.

Add Olivier Giroud, France’s all-time leading scorer, into the mix and you have an attack that averaged 3.63 goals a game in qualification.

Netherlands - 3.75

The Netherlands didn’t have the easiest time in qualification due to finding themselves in the same group as France. Aside from their two losses at the hands of the French, Netherlands performed well winning their other six matches. 

The 1988 champions have not enjoyed a lot of success in international competitions for some time, they last reached a final in the 2010 World Cup and haven’t reached a European semi-final since 2004. At Euro 2020, they crashed out in a shock 2-0 defeat to Czech Republic at the round of 16 stage.

Since the World Cup, they have only won seven of their 12 fixtures. However, their squad has enough quality to make them a tricky opponent for any team.

Key man: Virgil van Dijk

The 32-year-old centre back has been his country’s captain since 2018 and as he enters the twilight of his career he will be desperate to make a serious impression in international football. 

Van Dijk’s importance to his side is underlined by the fact that their recent 6-0 win over Gibraltar was the first time he missed minutes, when fit, since 2021. Their defensive record in qualification was strong, conceding just seven goals in eight matches. They actually conceded six of those seven goals in two matches against France, so they only conceded one goal in their other six matches.

One to watch: Xavi Simmons

Xavi Simmons is one of the most exciting young players in Europe. He has flourished this season on loan from PSG to RB Leipzig. He can play on either wing but has played most of his games this season behind the striker, his 24 goal contributions are a testament to his quality.

The 21-year-old is yet to make an impact for the national side, failing to register a goal or assist in his 13 appearances. His talent however, is unquestionable and he might just provide the spark that the Netherlands sometimes miss in attacking areas. 

Fixtures:

16 June vs Poland
21 June vs France
25 June vs Austria

Betting trend: BTTS - No

For their match against France, I wouldn’t advise on backing this but in their other two matches it is more than viable. 

In qualification, they kept clean sheets in five of their eight matches, but more notably five in their six matches that weren’t against France.

Austria - 8.6

When David Alaba went down with an ACL injury earlier this season, Austria’s chances of progressing from the group stage took a serious hit. The Real Madrid defender has been an essential part of Austria’s team for years. 

In qualification, they finished a comfortable second behind group-leaders Belgium, only tasting defeat once. This is only the third time that Austria have qualified for the tournament on merit and they have never got past the round of 16 stage.

They will struggle in a group dominated by France and the Netherlands but they have a good record against some of the ‘stronger’ sides in Europe. They have recently drawn with France and Belgium, while beating Germany and Italy. 

Key man: Marcel Sabitzer

The Borussia Dortmund midfielder is one of the national side’s senior players and in Alaba’s absence he will have to take on even more responsibility. While typically playing in the centre of midfield, he has recently found himself playing on the left for Austria. 

His new role on the left has brought with it more goals, he has scored three in his last four games compared to six in 35 for Dortmund this season. 

One to watch: Cristoph Baumgartner

At the age of 24, Baumgartner has really started to hit his stride for both club and country. Capable of playing as a second striker, on the left and in midfield his versatility is very important to Austria. 

While only having five goals for RB Leipzig this season, he scored in all three of his most recent matches for the national side and has featured in 15 of their last 16 matches. 

Fixtures:

17 June vs France
21 June vs Poland
25 June vs Netherlands

Betting trend: Under 2.5 cards

During qualification Austria were remarkably clean and managed to avoid getting on the wrong side of the referees. In their eight matches they picked up a total of 15 yellow cards at an average of 1.88 per match so under 2.5 feels like a relatively safe bet.

Poland - 10.5

After a disappointing qualifying campaign, it took a penalty shootout win over Wales for Poland to book themselves a place at Euro 2024. They would have expected to qualify automatically from a group containing Albania, Czech Republic, Moldova and the Faroe Islands.

They reached the round of 16 stage at the Qatar World Cup, before running into a rampant French side and an in-form Kylian Mbappé who gave right back Matty Cash a torrid time scoring a brace. Since that tournament, they have only won six of their 12 matches which is a worrying record when you consider the standard of opposition they have faced.

They still carry a threat and with a striker of the quality of Robert Lewandowski they are never out of games.

Key man: Robert Lewandowski

It is hard to look at anyone other than Lewandowski as their key player. He is not only their all-time leading scorer and leading appearance-maker but he is still one of the best strikers in world football.

At 35, he might be past his best but he has still found the back of the net 23 times for Barcelona this season and contributed nine assists.

One to watch: Sebastian Szymanski 

Szymanski moved from Dynamo Moscow to Fenerbahce in the summer and has hit the ground running in Turkey. He has become a regular fixture in the side appearing in 51 matches, mainly as central attacking midfielder but on the right wing as well. 

He has 30 goal contributions to his name this season, including nine goals in the league. His 31 appearances for the national side have only produced three goals, however two of those have been within the last year.

Fixtures:

16 June vs Netherlands
21 June vs Austria
25 June vs France

Betting trend: Over 2.5 goals

A tricky qualification campaign saw Poland only coming out on the winning side on three occasions. They also failed to establish control at either end of the pitch scoring 15 goals and conceding 11. 

That averages out to 3.25 goals a game, backing over 2.5 goals in a match therefore seems a good bet.

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