Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Matthew O'Regan's 31/1 bet builder for Belgium vs Ukraine

The final bout of group stage games are now upon us after an extremely entertaining bout of games. 

The day starts with Group E action with all four teams locked on four points. Slovakia face Romania in Frankfurt, while Ukraine and Belgium lock horns in Stuttgart. 

Group F sees already qualified Portugal plucky underdogs Georgia in Gelsenkirchen and Turkey and Czech Republic playing in Hamburg, in what should be a feisty encounter. 

Slovakia vs Romania

Kick Off: 17:00

Both sides provided monumental shocks with their opening day victories, with Slovakia beating Belgium 1-0 and Romania drubbing Ukraine 3-0. Both sides come into this game knowing a point is enough for qualification- a position either country would’ve dreamt about before a ball was kicked. 

Despite two disallowed Romelu Lukaku goals Slovakia were good value for their lead, playing aggressive but astute football. They looked hard to break down, but a threat on the counterattack. 

After conceding two chances worth a combined 0.75 xG in the first three minutes, Francesco Calzona’s side regrouped and only went on to concede 0.90 xG for the rest of the match, despite Belgium piling bodies forward. 

Slovakia also took the lead in their match against Ukraine, eventually losing 2-1 thanks to second-half strikes from Mykola Shaparenko and Roman Yaremchuk.

Sokoli were defensively resilient in qualifying, conceding just eight goals in 10 games, with four of these coming against a Portugal side who won all ten games, scoring an average of 3.6 goals per game. 

All in all, in qualifying, Slovakia’s matches averaged 2.5 goals a game, with ‘both teams to score NO and under 2.5 goals’ landing in half of these. 

Romania also shocked the continent when they trounced Ukraine 3-0 in the opener. Eduard Iordanescu’s side took the lead after 29 minutes, before goals in the 53rd and 57th minute sealed the deal. 

However, despite the three goals scored, Romania only accumulated 1.20 xG, with 0.87 of this coming from Denis Dragus’ goal to make it 3-0. The previous two goals combined for just 0.07 xG. 

Romania frustrated Ukraine. Despite having 75% of possession, Sergiy Rebrov’s men could only muster up 0.75 xG, with eight of their 13 shots coming from outside the area. 

Iordanescu’s side were 1-0 down after just two minutes against Belgium, eventually losing 2-0 in an entertaining affair in which both sides had chances. Romania stood strong and restricted a dominant Belgian side to just two goals. 

This defensive solidity is nothing new for Tricolorii. In qualifying, they conceded just five times in ten games, with six of these seeing ‘both teams to score NO and under 2.5 goals.’ 

While this is a bet I would take normally, the outstanding circumstances surrounding this game, sees this bet presenting even more value. 

Both teams are through with a draw regardless. Neither side will want to risk injury or suspension, so expect a low-tempo, drab affair. 

Prediction: Both Teams To Score NO & under 2.5 goals @ 1.87

Belgium vs Ukraine

Kick Off: 17:00

This is a must-win game for both sides. While a draw is enough for Belgium to progress, Roberto Martinez will find it imperative that his Red Devils side top the group in order to build momentum for the knockouts. 

Presuming that Romania vs Slovakia ends as a draw, Ukraine will need a win too. It is all to play for in Group E, with every side facing the possibility of finishing top or bottom in the final game. 

In a high-stakes game, it is only natural to presume there will be cards. 

Amadou Onana will be tasked with more defensive responsibility now that Orel Mangala is not expected to start. This defensive responsibility also increases as Youri Tielemans is on a yellow card so will not want to be suspended heading into the knockouts. 

While Belgium struggled in the opener, they looked a far more structured and well-balanced team with a midfield trio of Onana, Tielmans and De Bruyne.

Onana has won plaudits for his tremendous defensive ability for Everton, winning 1.64 tackles per 90 in the Premier League and 7.75 duels. He is eager to get stuck in, committing 1.59 fouls per game, and picking up 0.22 yellows per 90. 

After a poor showing from Yukhym Konoplia in the opener, the right-back was displaced in the side by Dynamo Kyiv’s Oleksandr Tymchyk. Up against the diminutive Lukas Haraslin, Tymchyk made one foul and three tackles. 

Jeremy Doku is expected to play on the left flank again for Belgium. The Manchester City winger is winning an average of 1.86 fouls per 90 for the Premier League champions, with this average increasing to a mammoth 3.01 in the Champions League. 

If Belgium are to qualify, they may need to rely on the magic of the creative maestro Kevin De Bruyne. The Manchester City midfielder created four chances and one big chance in the Slovakia defeat, before scoring and creating three chances for a xA of 0.24. 

In 103 caps for Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne boasts 46 assists for Belgium, as well as averaging 18 per season for Manchester City. 

Prediction: Amadou Onana and Oleksandr Tymchyk to be carded and Kevin De Bruyne to assist a goal @ 32.00

Czech Republic vs Turkey

Kick Off: 20:00

The magnitude of this game cannot be overstated. Turkiye currently sit second, needing just a point to progress, while Czech Republic knows a win is necessary if they are to advance to the knockouts. 

Turkey opened their Euro 2024 campaign with a barnstorming, end to end game against Georgia, which has been described as the game of the tournament by many. 

The game was enthralling, ending in an 18-23 tackle split. Their next game saw them comfortably beaten 3-0 by Portugal, with Vincenzo Montella’s side picking up three cards in a frustrating match. 

This was a common theme in qualifying, with Turkey games seeing an average of 6.75 cards per game. 

Czech Republic were disappointing in their 2-1 loss to Portugal, only mustering five shots, before succumbing to two late goals. The match against Georgia was much more entertaining in a game that again saw cards and tackles flying. 

Referee Daniel Siebert ended up dishing out nine cards, with six coming in the second half as tensions rose. Czechia games saw an average of 4.125 cards in qualifying. 

Refereeing this clash is Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs. The 39-year-old has brandished a mammoth 6.41 cards per game this season, including six in Slovenia’s draw with Serbia, of which five came in the second half.

Kovacs also showed seven yellows in the Europa League final, nine yellows and one red in the Barcelona vs PSG Champions League before this and seven cards as Wales played Finland. 

With a card-happy referee and two teams who tend to rack up the yellows also playing in an all-or-nothing game, we should see plenty of cards in Hamburg. 

Prediction: Over 5.5 cards @ 1.99

Georgia vs Portugal

Kick Off: 15:00

Georgia have won the hearts of many neutrals and will have virtually the whole of Europe on their side as they chase an unlikely victory against Portugal. 

After gaining just one point in their opening two games, Georgia require a win to progress to the knockouts, with anything else spelling an early flight home. Things could’ve been so different but for a last-minute sitter by Saba Lobjanidze against Czech Republic.

Still, Georgia have shown courage and determination thus far and will believe they can beat Portugal. The key for Willy Sagnol’s side will be goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has made 16 saves this tournament, Napoli’s Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Metz striker Georges Mikautadze who has scored both Georgian goals this tournament. 

Mikautadze is coming off a fine season for Metz where he has scored 0.67 goals per 90, averaging 1.44 shots on target. 

Having secured top spot, Portugal will rotate, with as many as nine changes expected. This game is seen as the ideal opportunity to give fringe players some minutes and for Domenico Tedesco to assess them.

One player who is expected to start is Diogo Jota. The Liverpool forward has been on the bench in the previous two games but will be keen to impress. The 27-year-old has only played 27 minutes thus far but came close to scoring the winning Portugal goal against Czechia but he was ruled offside. 

In 40 caps for Portugal, Jota has 14 goals, despite having to play second fiddle to Cristiano Ronaldo for the striking berth. 

This is also the case for Liverpool, with Jota starting just 14 times in the Premier League last season, scoring 10 goals for an average of 0.78 goals per 90 from just 0.42 xG.

Jota’s finishing is amongst the very best in the world, and in a game where he should be afforded plenty of opportunities, he should find himself on the scoresheet. 

Recommended Bets:

Back Both Teams To Score No & Under 2.5 goals in Romania vs Slovakia @ 1.87
Back Amadou Onana and Oleksandr Tymchyk to be carded and Kevin De Bruyne to assist a goal in Belgium vs Ukraine @ 32.00
Back over 5.5 cards in Czech Republic vs Turkey @ 1.99
Back Diogo Jota to score anytime and Georges Mikautadze over 0.5 shots on target in Georgia vs Portugal @ 4.10