Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Will Germany continue their winning run against Hungary?

The Euros group stage is starting to take shape now after every side has played their first game. In this tipsheet we will focus on Wednesday’s action. Firstly, Croatia and Albania battle it out in Hamburg for their first points of the tournament in what is set to be a barnstorming game. 

We then head south to Stuttgart as tournament hosts Germany look to secure their place in the knockouts as they face Hungary. Finally, Scotland are in Cologne again as they look to overcome a determined Swiss side. 

Three bets for today’s matches with the treble paying out at a big 312.5. 

Croatia vs Albania

Kick Off: 14:00

Croatia struggled in their opener as Zlatko Dalic’s side were outclassed by Spain, with a Bruno Petkovic missed penalty rubbing salt in the wounds. 

However, not all hope is lost in the ‘group of death.’ Italy were lethargic and lumbered as they edged past Albania by a sole goal, and Croatia will fancy their chances of defeating Kuqezinjtë.

Despite originally being a centre-back, Josko Gvardiol has been converted into left back by Pep Guardiola for Manchester City. His attacking output greatly increased this season, averaging 1.24 shots per 90 in the Premier League. 

He is also now afforded more freedom going forward for Croatia. In the final warm-up game against Portugal, the 22-year-old had three shots, with five touches in the opposition boxes.

Gvardiol was also an attacking presence in the 3-0 loss to Spain, having two shots, including one that whistled just wide of the post from eight yards out. Looking at the average positional map, only the front three were higher than him. 

In Albania’s 2-1 loss to Italy, marauding left-back Federico Dimarco recorded two shots, including one on target. While Gvardiol won’t be as adventurous going forward as DiMarco, he should still get plenty of opportunities in the final third. 

Albania shocked the continent with a goal within a minute against Italy, with Nedim Bajrami making the most of a loose Dimarco throw to fire past the despairing dive of Gianluigi Donnarumma.

It was all in vain ultimately as Albania succumbed to a narrow defeat, but the game still showcased Slyvinho’s sides’ willingness in the final third. 

Inter Milan’s Kristjan Asslani and the aforementioned Nedim Bajrami were particularly bright. If Albania are to claim an unlikely scalp, the duo will be imperative. Bajarmi played the more advanced of the two, playing just off the shoulder of Armando Broja. 

Bajarmi plies his trade in Italy for recently relegated Sassuolo. Despite playing in a struggling side, the 25-year-old averaged 2.20 shots and 0.62 shots on target per 90 - an average slightly lower than his 2.27 and 0.77 on target the season before. 

The Sassuolo midfielder has also had six shots on target in his last seven international appearances, scoring in his last two caps. 

Prediction: Jośko Gvardiol & Nedim Bajrami over 0.5 shots on target @ 7.00

Germany vs Hungary

Kick Off: 17:00

Unsurprisingly, Germany opened their Euro 2024 campaign with a victory, inflicting a 5-1 drubbing on Scotland. While Julien Nagelsmann’s side were excellent and brushed Scotland aside with minimal fuss, it is difficult to gauge where Die Mannschaft are after just one competitive game since their disastrous World Cup campaign that saw them crash out in the group stage. 

Scotland scored through an Anthony Rudiger own goal, despite recording just one shot all game, so Germany can count themselves unlucky that they left the Allianz Arena without keeping a clean sheet. Despite this, a worrying trend cannot be ignored - Germany have only kept just four clean sheets in their last 27 games.

Coming up against a Hungary side desperate for a win and on a 12-game scoring streak, they may find things tougher than the odds suggest. 

In the opener, a poor first half for Hungary left Marco Rossi’s side with too much to do in the second half, despite a 20-minute spell in which they were the better side. Switzerland inflicted only the second defeat in Hungary’s last 15 games, so the 59-year-old is in unfamiliar territory having to gee his side up after a loss. 

These sides met twice in the Nations League, with Hungary taking four points off Wednesday’s hosts. If brave enough to take on the hosts, SBK are offering a huge 12.50 for Hungary to win. 

While I believe Germany have enough quality to win, both sides' respective attacking and defensive records means there is value in the goal market regarding Hungary, and Barnabas Varga in particular. 

The 29-year-old enjoyed a fruitful domestic season, boasting 29 goals in 35 league/Europa Conference league games for Hungarian champions Ferencvaros. This follows on from 29 goals in 33 appearances for Paksi SE the season prior. 

This form caught the attention of Rossi, with the 59-year-old now seeing Varga as his main outlet for goals. Varga has scored seven in 12 caps for his national side, including a second-half header against Switzerland. His positioning and movement made him a handful for Switzerland defenders, recording a 0.86 xG with his two shots.

With a goal record as prolific as his, playing against a defence with just four clean sheets in 27 matches, Varga’s price looks far too big to double his tournament tally. 

Prediction: Barnabas Varga to score @ 6.20

Scotland vs Switzerland

Kick Off: 20:00

The second game from Group A comes from Cologne as Scotland face Switzerland. In the opening round of fixtures, Scotland endured a miserable 5-1 drubbing by hosts Germany, while Switzerland looked comfortable in defeating Hungary 3-1.

Steve Clarke’s side enjoyed a successful qualifying campaign, defeating Spain at Hampden Park, as well as finishing above an Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard-led Norway and a Georgia side who looked impressive despite losing to Georgia. 

However, they looked overawed on the big stage in Munich, crumbling early in the first half. 

This is perhaps where Switzerland’s tournament experience comes in. Despite a lacklustre qualifying campaign, Switzerland looked comfortable from minute one against Hungary. Murat Yakin is blessed with players plying their trade at some of the biggest clubs in the world, with Manchester City’s Manuel Akanji and Bayer Leverkusen’s Granit Xhaka particularly impressive. 

Yakin also has a strong bench to call upon, with Breel Embolo sealing the win in stoppage time in the last game – a luxury Scotland perhaps lacks, and a luxury that could prove crucial in a game like this. 

Many eyebrows were raised at the announcement of the Swiss starting line-up vs Hungary, with Kwadwo Duah given the nod upfront. The 27-year-old was given his international debut in the 4-0 drubbing of Estonia, but not many predicted he would be trusted with a start on Saturday. 

However, Duah repaid this faith after 12 minutes, scoring past Peter Gulasci in the Hungary net. While Duah’s inclusion and performance was a surprise for many, it is a call-up that has been long overdue. 

The Ludogorets striker enjoyed a fruitful debut season in the ‘Bulgarian First League’ notching 13 goals in 24 starts. The season prior, he scored 11 goals for FC Nürenberg in 2. Bundesliga, averaging 0.41 goals per 90, from 2.95 shots and 1.07 shots on target per game. 

His strength, pace and movement in the final third make him a real nuisance to play against. 

Switzerland’s opening game against Hungary saw both teams receive two cards, with this particular bet winning in four of their last five competitive games. 

Scotland’s drubbing by Germany also saw both teams receive at least two cards, despite the heavy scoreline and the lack of competitive edge after 20 minutes. This game has already entered into must-win territory for Steve Clarke, so there should be a huge competitive edge. Five of their eight qualification games saw both teams receiving two or more cards, with Scotland averaging over 3 cards per game. 

Overseeing the affair is Slovakian ref Ivan Kruzliak, who is averaging 4.5 cards per game when refereeing in European competitions. However, in his most recent bout, Kruzliak brandished 10 cards as Lille hosted Aston Villa in a fiery encounter. 

Prediction: Switzerland win, Kwadwo Duah to score, over 1.5 Cards each @ 8.60

Recommended Bets:

Back Josko Gvardiol and Nedim Bajrami over 0.5 shot on targets in Croatia vs Albania @ 7.00
Back Barnabas Varga to score in Germany vs Hungary @ 6.20
Back Switzerland to win, Kwadwo Duah to score and Over 1.5 cards each in Scotland vs Switzerland @ 8.60