Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Back England to get the job done in Cologne

We have reached the final round of group stage matches and there is still plenty to play for and we have four games for you on Tuesday. 

France vs Poland

17:00, BBC 

There is still plenty to play for in Group D, with France, Netherlands and Austria only separated by one point. 

On the other hand, Poland are the only team left in the tournament that are yet to pick up a point - not a record you want walking into a game with France. 

Poland’s record is particularly unfortunate when you take into account that they have been level at half time in their losses to the Netherlands and Austria. 

One of the defining factors of their qualifying campaign was their lack of control at either end of the pitch, they scored 15 goals but conceded 11 meaning their matches averaged 3.25 per game. When you consider they faced Albania, Czech Republic, Moldova and the Faroe Islands you would expect something a bit better. 

On Friday night, the French were lucky to get a draw from their match with the Netherlands after Xavi Simmons controversially had a goal ruled out. They were without Kylian Mbappe after he suffered a broken nose in their 1-0 over Austria. 

Despite being second favourites to win Euro 2024 pre tournament, they have failed to impress, only finding the back of the net once and that was thanks to an own goal. 

French manager Didier Deschamps, is yet to reveal whether or not Mbappe will return to the line-up tonight but it has been reported that he scored a brace and got two assists in a 60-minute run out in a behind closed doors friendly against a team of French squad players that hadn’t featured against the Netherlands and Paderborn U-21 players.

Like Poland, both of France’s matches have been level at half-time, with them going on to beat Austria and draw with Netherlands. Priced at 4.4, the half time draw/full time France, looks too good to turn down.

Back half time draw/full time France @ 4.4

Netherlands vs Austria

17:00, BBC

Austria have been one of the surprise teams of this tournament. They tested France in their opening game before sweeping Poland aside in Berlin on Friday.

They have shown signs of their improvement over the last year. They only tasted defeat once in qualifying finishing a comfortable second in their group behind Belgium. They won’t be intimidated by facing one of Europe’s ‘stronger’ teams, having recently drawn with Belgium and beaten Germany and Italy. 

Despite conceding first against Poland, the Netherlands rallied to win their opening match 2-1 with the help of a 83rd minute Wout Weghorst goal. Despite having a goal controversially ruled out against France, they didn’t create a great deal of clear cut chances. 

Thanks to their recent record, I can see Austria causing an upset in this one or at least avoiding defeat, so backing them in the Double Chance market seems a solid pick.

Both sides have been remarkably clean so far and have stayed in the referees good books. The Netherlands have picked up one card in each of their matches while Austria picked up two and five in their matches against Poland and France respectively. If you add these numbers together you reach an average of 2.25 cards per game. Austria were also one of the cleanest teams in qualifying, in their eight matches they picked up a total of 15 yellow cards at an average of 1.88 per match. You can back the match to have under 3.5 cards at 1.99.

Back Austria Double Chance and under 3.5 cards @ 3.1

England vs Slovenia

20:00, ITV

There has been plenty of discourse around England’s performance against Denmark, but following up an opening game win with a draw is something Gareth Southgate’s men have done at the last two tournaments. They went on to win the final game of the group stage on both occasions.

Despite being on four points, England are yet to secure top spot in the group. With Germany finishing top of Group A, the Three Lions will be keen to avoid playing their rivals and hosts in the last 16, putting extra emphasis on this game.

The Trent Alexander-Arnold midfield experiment looks set to end with Connor Gallagher reportedly lining up next to Declan Rice. Gallagher found himself in the referee's bad books regularly in the Premier League last season, picking up eight yellow cards in 37 matches. He has also already been booked in this tournament, having been booked against Denmark despite only playing 36 minutes.

Slovenia have been impressive but are yet to pick up three points after a pair of 1-1 draws against Denmark and Serbia. In both matches, they have been happy to let the opposition have the ball and have tried to sit back and hit them on the counter. They have 32% possession against Denmark and 39% against Serbia, expect something similar tonight.

England have struggled to break down teams who sit back against them, so I don’t think we will see a lot of goals in this game. 

Back England to win and Connor Gallagher to be carded @ 8.6

Denmark vs Serbia

20:00, ITV

Serbia are the underdogs coming into this match, they find themselves at the foot of Group C with their solitary point coming courtesy of a late goal against Slovenia last time out. 

But thanks to results elsewhere, beating Denmark would likely result in them going through to the knockout stages. 

The Danes were the better side in their 1-1 draw with England on Thursday, having 51% possession and managing seven shots on target compared to the Three Lions’ four. 

They were also the better side when they played Slovenia in their opening match, dominating the possession and shots on target battles. 

I think they have enough quality to get the win in this one and backing them at a price of 2.26 seems attractive. 

I am also going to back this game to continue the Group C trend of being a low scoring affair. In the four matches so far there has been a total of seven goals, averaging 1.75 per game. This trend is far below the tournament’s average of 2.40 per match. 

Denmark have form with low-scoring affairs coming into the tournament, their previous ten matches had seen an average of just 2.2 goals per game. You can back this match to have under 2.5 goals at 1.65 which when bolted onto backing Denmark to win represents some good value.

Back Denmark to win and under 2.5 goals @ 4.2

Recommended Bets

Back half time draw/full time France @ 4.4
Back Austria Double Chance and under 3.5 cards @ 3.1
Back England to win and Connor Gallagher to be carded @ 8.6
Back Denmark to win and under 2.5 goals @ 4.2