Euro Tipsheet: Could Eriksen find the back of the net against England?

Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s matches at Euro 2024 – will England book their last-16 spot by beating Denmark and what will happen in the tournament's first heavyweight clash between Spain and Italy.

Slovenia v Serbia

Kick-off: 14:00, ITV

It was suggested on these pages that Slovenia would avoid defeat against Denmark in their opener and they duly managed to do so.

The Danes did start well but Slovenia, who beat Portugal in March, grew into the game and fully deserved their point; on another day they might even have nicked all three.

I get a sense of déjà vu looking at this market with the Serbs odds-on for victory.

They competed with England, eventually losing 1-0, but didn’t really threaten a great deal.

I don’t think they did enough to justify odds-on quotes here and will happily back Slovenia on the Asian handicap where they get a 0.5-goal start.

The bet wins if they avoid defeat and we’re getting 1.98 – that looks more than fair.

For those putting a Bet Builder together, consider Slovenia forwards Benjamin Sesko and Andraz Sporar for a shot on target each.

Sesko hammered a shot against the post in Slovenia’s opener but will want to improve after struggling to get into the game a lot. However, he’s their main goal threat and should see more of the ball here.

Sporar landed this bet against Denmark and has now delivered for his backers in 10 of his last 13 competitive internationals.

The double pays 2.34.

Prediction: Slovenia (+0.5) on the Asian handicap @ 1.98

Denmark v England

Kick-off: 17:00, BBC

England started very well against Serbia but faded as the game wore on and while they were still deserved winners, their one-goal margin of victory wasn’t particularly convincing.

It’s a pattern we’ve seen before at tournaments and fits the theory that players are jaded after long, hard seasons in a highly-competitive Premier League, not to mention Europe.

A late-afternoon game in a predicted temperature above 20C isn’t ideal on that front so perhaps England backers should look at them to be leading at half time (2.24) rather than at full time (1.72).

Denmark were also fast starters against Slovenia and one notable performer was Christian Eriksen, who made a number of late runs into the box to threaten the Slovenia goal.

He’s scored six goals for Denmark since returning from his cardiac arrest at the last European Championships, with five netted in his 19 starts.

Prior to his shocking collapse, he’d netted 30 goals in his last 49 international appearances.

In short, Eriksen is given plenty of licence to push forward in a Denmark shirt and he could be a spot of value here at 6.8 to find the net against a bunch of players he knows well.

Prediction: Christian Eriksen anytime scorer @ 6.8

Spain v Italy
Kick-off: 20:00, ITV

Spain caught the eye in their opening match in Group B, easing past Croatia 3-0. I’d expected that one to be much tighter.

Italy were unconvincing winners over Albania, battling back after gifting them a first-minute goal, although the underdogs were inches away from late equaliser.

They didn’t really do enough with the ball in the second half and this will be a much different test – they’ll have less possession and will need to be much better in terms of creating chances when they do have it.

Spain look a backable price of 2.22 given how those two games unfolded.

They took the lead through Alvaro Morata at the weekend and he’s now scored 10 goals in 15 tournament appearances, scoring in nine of them.

That’s a very impressive record and so quotes of 3.05 for a goal in this one are certainly worth considering.

However, I’m keener on cards in this game as two old rivals clash.

The last two meetings (both in the Nations League finals) have delivered five and seven cards respectively. Notably, the referee for this one, Slavko Vincic, was the man who dished out five when the sides met last year.

Vincic produced four in Hungary v Switzerland in his matchday one appointment and the competitive nature of this one can see him go one better.

Over 4.5 this time around is offered at 2.3 and that looks decent.

Finally, consider Robin Le Normand for a card.

The Spain centre-back has been booked in three of his last six international starts and picked up a whopping 17 cards in 43 games for Real Sociedad this season.

He committed two fouls against Croatia and should face a greater test here.

Prediction: Spain to win @ 2.22
Prediction: Over 4.5 cards @ 2.3

Recommended Bets

Slovenia (+0.5) on the Asian handicap v Serbia @ 1.98
Christian Eriksen anytime scorer in Denmark v England @ 6.8
Spain to beat Italy @ 2.22
Over 4.5 cards in Spain v Italy @ 2.3