Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Will Germany secure their place at the top of Group A?

We have reached the final round of matches in the group stage of Euro 2024. On Sunday evening, Scotland will attempt to qualify for the knockout stage of a tournament for the first time and Germany will look to guarantee top spot against Switzerland.

Germany vs Switzerland

20:00 Sunday, June 23rd

Germany have already qualified for the round of 16 ahead of this game against Switzerland but there is no room for complacency with the Swiss able to leapfrog them and take over top spot in Group A with a win. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have arguably been the most impressive side at Euro 2024 so far. They will be looking to continue that momentum here.

After beating Hungary 3-1 in their opening match, Switzerland had to settle for a draw against Scotland. Murat Yakin will need to help his side go up a gear if they are to get anything from their clash with Germany. However, the four points they already have could be enough for them to make it to the knockout stages. 

Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz have been the standout attacking players for Germany in their opening two matches but it is the Bayern Munich man who appeals in the betting markets. We are backing Musiala to score a goal or register an assist in this one. 

Musiala prefers to operate as a number 10 but he is having success drifting in from wide areas for both club and country. He chipped in with 15 goal contributions in 24 Bundesliga matches this season. The underlying stats also indicate just how crucial he is. His non-penalty xG and xAG of 0.61 per 90 minutes played puts him in the top 8% for expected goal contributions when compared with all other attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues. 

The Bayern Munich midfielder has tremendous technical ability, which lends itself nicely to Nagelsmann’s German setup. The team are fluid in attack as they look to dominate possession. Musiala has started both group games so far from the right-hand side but his heat maps show he is popping up across the entire width of the pitch. He ranked in the top 1% in Europe’s top five leagues for successful take-ons last season and will be able to get at this Swiss defence.

Musiala has scored in both of Germany’s games so far. He is still awaiting his first assist but his creative presence and ability to bring others into the game means that it’s worth backing him to score or assist in this one. 

Recommended Bet: Jamal Musiala to score or assist at 2.28 

Scotland vs Hungary

20:00 Sunday, June 23rd

Scotland were blown away in the first game of the tournament as they lost 5-1 to Germany but the Switzerland game will have given them hope. Scotland are relying on the Germans to put Switzerland to the sword in the other game in Group A if they want to secure second place. However, a win over Hungary would likely mean the Scots go through as one of the best third-placed teams. 

Qualification is less likely for Hungary having failed to pick up any points from their opening two matches. Nevertheless, they still have a chance if they can earn all three points here. 

Scotland’s matches in qualifying saw an average of 26.38 fouls per game. That was the fourth most of the 52 sides that competed across all of the groups. The average fouls per game in the qualifiers was just 22.52. The Scots’ tendency to make it a combative affair coupled with the fact that this is a do-or-die game for them means that fouls are a good bet here. 

Hungary’s qualifiers saw an average of 24.88 fouls, which meant their matches ranked eighth in terms of most fouls. The Hungarians had just 30% of the ball against Germany but they forced plenty of fouls against Switzerland, where possession was more evenly shared.  The Swiss players who started in the quartet in the centre of the pitch combined for eight fouls.

Scotland adopted a similar formation to the one used by Switzerland against Hungary when they took on Murat Yakin’s team. John McGinn was booked and made two fouls in that game. We are singling out the Aston Villa man to make fouls here. He has made the joint most fouls for Steve Clarke’s side this tournament. 

McGinn averaged 1.2 fouls per 90 minutes played in the Premier League last season and will be keen to get stuck in here. He is one of the leaders for Scotland, so he will want to leave nothing on the pitch as the Scots attempt to make it to the knockout stages of a European Championships for the very first time.

Recommended Bet: John McGinn to make over 1.5 fouls at 1.78