Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Dumfries can star again for the Netherlands

Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s matches at Euro 2024 – including England’s opening game of the tournament against Serbia.

Poland v Netherlands

Kick-off: 1400, BBC1

The Dutch have never been the most reliable side to back at tournaments over the years, struggling to deal with expectations or wrangling internally.

That said, although they lost twice to France during qualifying, they won their other six games to book their ticket to neighbouring Germany and should have too much for a Polish side who really struggled to make it this far.

The Poles could finish only third in their group, scoring 10 times in eight games and winning just three of them – and two of those were against the Faroe Islands. They eventually made it by beating Wales in a penalty shoot-out after failing to have a shot on target over 120 minutes.

In another blow to their goalscoring ability, they will be without their star striker, Robert Lewandowski, for this one through injury. With the Dutch just 1.58, the bet I like here comes in the assists market.

Denzel Dumfries will pile forward down the right for the Netherlands and should offer plenty of attacking threat. He assisted five times in six qualifying appearances and added another to his tally on Monday against Iceland.

In a game which could well see the Dutch score multiple goals, the Inter Milan star looks a big price at 6.8 for an assist.

Prediction: Denzel Dumfries anytime assist @ 6.8

Slovenia v Denmark

Kick-off: 1700, ITV1

These two sides met in qualifying, drawing in Slovenia before Denmark won the reverse fixture 2-1, a result which ultimately saw them top the group via the head-to-head record.

The Danes are odds-on favourites here but that looks a risky bet. They impressed at the last Euros but flopped at the World Cup, winning just one point and scoring a single goal. Yes, they qualified but it wasn’t a tough group.

That loss to the Danes is Slovenia’s only defeat in 12 and they beat Portugal in March, a side well backed to win this tournament.

In Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko, they have a real talent up front and they’ll be buzzing to be back on the top stage of European football for the first time in 24 years. I’d be tempted to oppose the Danes – Slovenia/Draw is at 1.76 in the double-chance market - but preference is for a play in the shots markets.

Joakim Maehle was one of the stars of Euro 2020 with his raids forward and, notably, he was the defender who hit the most shots in qualifying. The Wolfsburg full-back should get forward plenty in this game and looks good value for a shot on target at odds-against.

He managed two when the sides met in Copenhagen in November (didn’t play in the away fixture) and so is also worth considering on the higher lines too – SBK offer over 1.5 and over 2.5 SOT as well.

Prediction: Joakim Maehle over 0.5 shots on target @ 2.18

Serbia v England

Kick-off: 20:00, BBC1

Tournament joint favourites England make their bow on Sunday evening but concerns remain about the defensive side of their game.

Harry Maguire has been much maligned but he’s been a stoic performer in tournament football and a mainstay of the Three Lions’ defence. Marc Guehi is his likely replacement but is untested at this level. And with Kieran Trippier moving from his usual right-sided role to left-back in another rejig of the defence, it’s pretty remarkable that England are where they are in the outright market.

Of course, the reason for their position is a front line of Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, although there have been concerns over the latter’s fitness. Serbia have similar issues.

They also look top heavy with Aleksandar Mitrovic, fresh from a goal-laden season for Saudi champions Al-Hilal, ability assisted by the likes of Dusan Tadic, Milan’s Luka Jovic and Dusan Vlahovic, of Juventus. Like England, the defence is more of a worry and with such all-round concerns at the back, both teams to score appeals at odds-against.

For a bigger price, it’s worth noting Strahinja Pavlovic’s card record for the Serbs. The centre-back has been carded in 13 of his 35 international appearances and arrives here having received 10 in 26 games for Salzburg.

The referee is Italy’s Daniele Orsato, consistently above average for cards in both the Champions League and Serie A. With Pavlovic having to deal with Kane and monitor the runs of England’s other attacking stars, he looks a prime card candidate and a good price at 3.7.

Prediction: Both teams to score @ 2.08 & Strahinja Pavlovic to be carded @ 3.7

Recommended Bets

Denzel Dumfries anytime assist in Poland vs Netherlands @ 6.8
Joakim Maehle over 0.5 shots on target in Slovenia vs Denmark @ 2.18
Both teams to score in Serbia vs England @ 2.08
Strahinja Pavlovic to be carded in Serbia vs England @ 3.7