Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Redemption for Romelu Lukaku against Romania

Rounding off the second batch of group stage games, we have two games from Group F and one from Group E. Firstly, Georgia face Czech Republic in Hamburg, with both sides chasing their first points in the group. 

Next, we travel south to Dortmund as group leaders Turkey play against group favourites Portugal. The final game of the day is from Cologne, as Belgium look to make amends from their embarrassing defeat to Slovakia, against a Romania side who swept Slovakia aside with ease.  

Georgia vs Czech Republic

Kick Off: 14:00

Georgia were involved in arguably the game of the tournament as they were defeated 3-1 by Turkey in a barn-storming affair in Dortmund. It was everything you would want a football game to be and more. 

Willy Sagnol’s side were willing to sit back and absorb the pressure, countering Turkey with the pace and energy of attackers such as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and George Mikautadze in particular. 

The passion and tenacity on display from the Georgians made them a joy to behold. They had the backing of a loud, fanatic fanbase, and this should be the same on Saturday.

Despite Turkey having the lion’s share of the ball, Georgia looked potent in attack and caused real issues to Vincenzo Montella’s side’s backline. Overall, Georgia recorded 14 shots and a 1.37 xG. 

How they approach this game will be intriguing to see. As mentioned, Georgia sat back and soaked up the pressure in the opener. This is how they usually play, with Sagnol’s side averaging 20.6 PPDA (passes per defensive action) in their last 10 games. However, with Portugal to play in their final game, Georgia may need to take the initiative and play on the front foot from the off. 

If this is the case, this should present more goalscoring opportunities for Georges Mikautadze who was lively in the opener. The 23-year-old levelled the scoring and finished the game on four shots. 

His goal was a classy finish past Mert Günok in the Turkey goal, which has become a recurring theme for the Metz striker. 

After a successful spell at the French club, Ajax made a move for the Georgian marksman. While his move to Amsterdam didn’t work out, he was loaned back to Metz and had a stellar campaign, scoring 13 in 20 for his relegation-threatened side. 

He ended the season scoring in seven consecutive starts, including two braces, before a blank against champions PSG arrested this run. Mikautadze averaged 2.98 shots and 1.44 shots on target per 90, scoring 0.67 goals per match.

Czech Republic were unlucky to concede a last-minute goal to lose to Portugal, after taking the lead in the 62nd minute. It was, however, overdue as Portugal were relentless in their pressure, despite Czechia’s best efforts to frustrate them. 

Ivan Hasek’s side continues to leak goals at the back, keeping just two clean sheets in their last 12 games – coming at home to minnows Moldova and Faroe Island. This run also saw them concede at home to North Macedonia, Malta and Armenia, so defensive work is needed for Lokomotiva. 

The Czech Republic were camped in their own half for the majority of the opener but should play a more expansive style on Saturday as they chase a win. This should make for an end-to-end game with plenty of goals. If this is the case, Georges Mikautadze will expect to make it three goals from three for Georgia. 

Prediction: Georges Mikautadze to score @ 3.30

Portugal vs Turkey

Kick Off: 17:00

Despite boasting an abundance of attacking talent on display, Portugal relied on an own goal and a series of comical defensive errors to edge past Czech Republic. 

Roberto Martinez’s side seemed to have one gameplan and one gameplan only – cross it to Cristiano Ronaldo and pray. This made it easy to stifle them, despite conceding with virtually the last kick of the game. 

If Portugal are to reach the latter stages of the competition, they must improve, and a match against Turkey will be seen as the perfect test. 

Against the Czech Republic, Martinez opted for a midfield three of Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha, deciding against playing a traditional defensive midfielder such as Joao Neves or Palinha. Vitinha ran the show, making 91 passes, creating two chances, winning two tackles and making eight recoveries. 

Bruno Fernandes also looked comfortable with the added defensive responsibility with seven recoveries and one tackle, despite seeing 73% of the ball. Fernandes also let his well-documented frustrations get the best of him, committing another foul. Despite usually being deployed further forward, he has made a foul in eight of his last ten starts for Portugal. For Manchester United, the creative maestro is averaging 1.16 fouls per 90. 

Against Turkey, Georgia centre-midfielders made three fouls between them, with Hakan Calhanoglu, Orkun Kökcu, Kenan Yildiz and Arda Güler proving a handful to deal with. If Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha are trusted as the pivot against Turkey, they may see even more defensive action. 

Hakan Calhanoglu is the beating heart of the Turkish side. Everything went through him against Georgia, with the 30-year-old making 95 passes. While Kaan Ayhan was the man tasked with more of the defensive work, Calhanoglu still made two tackles and two fouls, picking up a yellow for a cynical foul on Giorgi Kochorashvii. He has now made a foul in four of his last five caps. 

He is also tasked with more defensive responsibility for Inter Milan, making 1.50 fouls per 90 in Serie A. Turkey’s captain is likely to be up against Bernardo Silva (fouled 0.91 times per 90), Vitinha (fouled 0.68 times per 90) and Bruno Fernandes (fouled 0.81 times per 90). 

In what should be a physical midfield battler, the main men for each side to make a foul gives us a nicely priced bet builder. 

Prediction: Bruno Fernandes and Hakan Calhanoglu over 0.5 fouls @ 2.16

Belgium vs Romania

Kick Off: 20:00

Slovakia caused one of the biggest European Championship upsets of all time as they ground out a 1-0 win over Belgium. Francesco Calzona’s side were good value for their win. They were brave in possession, compact out of it and ultimately punished Belgium’s mistakes. 

Domenico Tedesco now faces a huge task to motivate his Belgian side that tasted their first-ever defeat under his stewardship. While they were lethargic and lacklustre, The Red Devils weren’t without their fair share of chances. Talisman Romelu Lukaku had two goals disallowed, with the second one perhaps a little harsh on the 31-year-old. 

Lukaku also squandered a couple of golden chances, so on another day could have had a hat trick. 

He enjoyed a successful campaign in a stuttering Roma side, scoring 21 goals in 47 appearances. Lukaku also took his national team’s total goals to 85 with a brace against Luxembourg in a pre-tournament friendly, so he is a man who finds the net more often than not for his country. 

Lukaku was in stellar form in qualifying, with his 14 goals firing Belgium to the top of the group ahead of Austria and Sweden. The 31-year-old is representing Belgium at his sixth major tournament, scoring 11 goals previous to this summers competition. 

With Belgium needing a big win to claim the top spot after game two, and Lukaku needing a confidence boost, he should get plenty of chances to right Monday’s wrongs. 

Prediction: Romelu Lukaku to score a brace @ 5.50

Recommended Bets

Back Georges Mikautadze to score for Georgia vs Czech Republic @ 3.30
Back Bruno Fernandes and Hakan Calhanoglu to make over 0.5 fouls in Portugal vs Turkey @ 2.16
Back Romelu Lukaku to score a brace in Belgium vs Romania @ 5.50