Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Hungary and Spain to make a flying start

It only seemed like yesterday that the domestic season had ended, yet here we are with Euro 2024 set to start. 24 nations all with one shared dream. To lift the European Championship come the 14th of July. In my first tipsheet of the tournament, I will be looking at the second game in Group A between Hungary and Switzerland, as well as both games in the ‘group of death’ as Spain and Croatia do battle, before Albania face a daunting task against reigning champions Italy.

Hungary vs Switzerland

While tournament hosts Germany are overwhelming favourites to win the group (1.41), the three sides in their wake face an intriguing battle to qualify. Scotland are priced as the rank outsiders, meaning both Hungary and Switzerland will see their opening bout as the perfect chance to stake a claim in Group A. 

Switzerland were underwhelming in qualifying for the tournament, straggling five points behind Romania, just two points clear of Israel in a relatively weak group. Murat Yakin’s sides struggles were well documented, limping to a 2-1 win over Andorra just over a year ago. 

Still, they are priced as favourites for this match – a sentiment I struggle to share. Hungary are priced as a huge outsider to win the Euros (120.0) but are seen by some as this year’s dark horse. 

While it may be a tad early for them to challenge until the latter stages of the tournament, they may be slightly underestimated by the SBK traders. 

Hungary were impressive in qualifying, remaining unbeaten and topping their group. While, like Switzerland, their group was relatively weak, their performance in the Nations League stunned many, finishing above Germany and England to come second. Marco Rossi’s side took four points off Germany and did the double over England without conceding – so are a force to be reckoned with. 

With Hungary tenacious & gritty defensively, and possessing star quality going forward, most notably through Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai, they have all the ingredients to cause issues for some of the more favoured nations – should they progress to the knockouts. 

Their last-minute loss to Ireland in a pre-tournament friendly was their first defeat in 15 games, so Hungary certainly have momentum on their side. 

Playing against an out-of-sorts Switzerland, they will be confident of avoiding defeat. However, the +0.5 (double chance) price is slightly too short to back.

Playing upfront on Saturday will be Barnabas Vargas. A 29-goal season in 33 games for Paksi SE, saw him secure a move to Hungary’s biggest team – Ferencvaros. He enjoyed a stellar debut campaign, scoring 29 goals in 35 league/Europa Conference League games. This form saw him cement his place in the national team, where he has scored six goals in 11 caps. 

He looks an appealing price to score again on Saturday, and doubling his goalscoring price with a Hungary win gives odds of 7.6. It should be a low-scoring affair, so those brave enough could back a 1-0 win with Varga to score (29.0). 

Prediction: Hungary win & Barnbas Varga to score – 7.60

Spain vs Croatia

The opening game of a mouth-watering ‘group of death’ sees Spain face Croatia in the German capital. 

Seven wins from eight qualifying games saw Spain ease into this summer’s tournament. The simplicity in which they qualified was a stark contrast to their torrid World Cup performance, eliminated on penalties by Morocco in the last 16. 

Luis De La Fuente has worked his way through the Spanish ranks to become the head coach. After being appointed to coach the u19s in 2014, the now 62-year-old Luis De La Fuente epitomises what it means to be Spain manager. 

Under the stewardship of De La Fuente, La Roja play patient, intricate tiki-taka football, with young stars such as Barcelona prodigies Lamine Yamal and Pedri at the forefront in the final third. 

However, Spain maintains defensive discipline, with Rodri and Fabian Ruiz a solid, yet technical double pivot in the midfield. This duo allows the third midfielder, Pedri, to have full freedom in attacking zones. This freedom was evident in the 5-1 drubbing of Northern Ireland, with Pedri scoring twice in the opening half an hour. 

Not only did he look like a goal threat, popping up often as the second striker, but the 21-year-old was also pulling the strings, laying on some glorious chances for his teammates. Pedri has shown his exceptional versatility in this role and is sure to start the opener. 

Odds of 3.2 for the La Masia prodigy to contribute to a goal seems far too big to turn down, especially considering the attacking talent that surrounds him. 

Prediction: Pedri to score or assist @ 3.2

Italy vs Albania

Make no mistake about it, Albania face a mammoth task if they are to qualify from this group. They start with a daunting tie against reigning champions Italy, who despite being a shadow of the side who broke English hearts three years ago, should be too strong for Albania. 

Albania topped a tight group in qualifying, finishing above Czech Republic on goal difference, Poland by four points and Moldova by five. However, since qualifying for the Euros, Sylvinho’s side have been disappointing. 

Draws to Moldova (1-1) and Faroe Islands (0-0) were followed by 0-3 and 1-0 friendly losses to Chile and Sweden respectively. To build confidence, Kuqezinjtë hosted Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan, sweeping both aside with aplomb, winning 3-0 and 3-1 respectively. However, Group B is a very different story.

Despite winning the last European Championship, there is a sense of pessimism amongst the Italian camp. Azzurri limped across the line in qualifying, finishing six points off England and level on points with Ukraine. 

There is a common discourse that Luciano Spalletti is yet to decide on his best team, with out-of-sorts players such as Bryan Cristante and Gianluca Mancini selected. The question of who will lead the line is a much-debated topic, with Mateo Retegui and Gianluca Scamacca jostling for the starting berth. 

After a stellar campaign, winning the Europa League with Atalanta, it is believed Scamacca will get the nod, with the 25-year-old starting the last friendly against Bosnia & Herzegovina. In Serie A, Scamacca is averaging 0.74 goals per 90, an average slightly less than his 0.77 in the Europa League. 

At 6’4, he is a complete forward and should give Italy the spark missing from their attack in recent weeks. 

Prediction: Gianluca Scamacca to score @ 2.38

Recommended Bets

Back Hungary to beat Switzerland and Barnbas Varga to score @ 7.60
Back Pedri to score or assist in Spain vs Croatia @ 3.20
Back Gianluca Scamacca to score in Italy vs Albania @ 2.38