Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Is this the last dance for Modric and Croatia?

The final round of group-stage games is upon us, with Group B concluding on Monday. 

Albania and Spain face off, with Luis De La Fuente’s side securing the top spot after two wins from two matches, while Albania must claim an unlikely scalp to progress to the knockouts. All eyes will be on Leipzig, as Croatia play Albania, with anything but a Croatia win knocking Zlatko Dalic’s side out of the tournament. 

Spain vs Albania

Kick Off: 15:00 (GMT)

Spain have been flawless this tournament and arguably the best side so far. A comfortable 3-0 win over Croatia was followed up by a 1-0 win over Italy, although the scoreline flattered the Italians. They head into this game with the top spot secured and the luxury of being able to rotate and rest key players. 

Albania have played with plenty of fight and endeavour so far, rushing into early leads against both Italy and Croatia. Unfortunately for them, they came unstuck against Italy, eventually losing 2-1. History looked to be repeating itself against Croatia before a 95th-minute equaliser from substitute Klaus Gjasula levelled the score. 

Slyvinho’s side come into this game knowing only a win is enough to reach the knockout stages, so expect them to come out all guns firing. 

As mentioned, Spain are expected to rotate heavily and give minutes to fringe players who will hope to prove themselves worthy of a starting berth. It came as a surprise to many when Marc Cucurella was selected in place of Alejandro Grimaldo on the left side of Spain’s defence in the opener, but the Chelsea full-back has repaid De La Fuente’s faith with two stellar performances. 

However, the Bayer Leverkusen marauding wingback is expected to start on Tuesday and will be desperate to impress. Grimaldo was a key cog in a Bayer Leverkusen side that did the domestic double without losing. From left-back, he contributed 10 goals and 13 assists from just 31 starts. 

During this time, he averaged 2.29 shots and 0.74 shots on target per 90. Albania have conceded a combined 39 shots in their two games thus far. In both games, the respective left backs (Federico Dimarco and Ivan Perisic) recorded a shot on target. 

With Albania having to throw caution to the wind and commit to pushing men forward, Grimaldo should find himself in plenty of space to venture forward. 

The 28-year-old will be keen to give his manager a selection dilemma, so expect a lot of attacking impetus down his side. If Grimaldo can replicate his spectacular club form, expect plenty of shots from him. 

Prediction: Alejandro Grimaldo Shot On Target @ 2.58

Italy vs Croatia

Kick Off: 15:00 (GMT)

Italy head into this game with the upper hand on Croatia. While Zlatko Dalic’s side lumbered to a 2-2 draw against Albania, Gli Azzurri held on for a 2-1 victory, while also losing 1-0 to Spain, compared to Croatia’s 3-0 drubbing. However, Luciano Splatetti’s side have been underwhelming thus far. 

Still, only a point is needed to progress, although they should still have a good enough goal difference to progress regardless unless they are on the end of a hammering. 

The magnitude of this game cannot be understated. Anything but a win for Croatia will see them crashing out of the tournament, while a loss for Italy will leave them with an anxious wait to see if they qualify as one of the best-placed third-place teams.

In a game like this, it is natural to expect cards – despite Croatia’s poor record in the tournament. In a game that was over by halftime, Spain only picked up one card to Croatia’s zero. They also didn’t pick up a card against Albania as they racked up 67% possession.

Italy were shown two cards in their loss to Spain and in their victory against Albania. With petulance and time-wasting set to be rife in this game, we should expect plenty of cards. 

Refereeing this affair is Danny Makkelie. At first glance, the Dutchman's record is underwhelming, showing under four cards per game on average. However, when excluding games refereed in the notoriously tame Eredivisie, Makkelie averages just shy of five cards per game, brandishing five in Germany’s victory over Hungary a few days back.

Despite the poor card record in this tournament for both sides, this match has all the makings of a feisty affair. It is a winner-takes-all-all battle, with both sets of supporters expectant. An added caveat is that due to the low card counts for both, there aren’t many players on the pitch at risk of suspension, so we should see players less fearful to ‘take one for the team.’ If the scores are tight towards the end of the match, we should see the heat ramped up and Makkelie forced to brandish some cards. 

With Italy knowing a point is enough to progress in second place, we could be set for a typical Italian backs-against-the-wall display. Watching Croatia’s incohesive game plan against Albania, this could be a wise strategy. 

Dalic’s side struggled to break down a resilient Albanian side, with their build-up slow, predictable and lethargic. If Italy deploys the same tactic, Croatia may face similar problems against a fierce Italian rearguard.

15/28 games in the group stages have seen under 2.5 goals, including both of Group A’s final games. Neither side is blessed with pace on the counterattack or much in the way of creativity to break down low blocks, so we could be in for a slow, tepid game in Leipzig. 

Prediction: Over 4.5 cards and under 2.5 goals @ 3.45

Recommended Bets:

Back Alejandro Grimaldo Shot On Target for Spain vs Albania @ 2.58
Back over 4.5 cards and under 2.5 goals in Croatia vs Italy @ 3.45