Euro 2024 Tipsheet: Could the Netherlands get the better of France?

Last night’s match between Spain and Italy was the first time that two of the tournament’s heavyweights met, fortunately for us it won’t be the last with France and the Netherlands meeting tonight. 

Before that match though we have Slovakia vs Ukraine and Poland vs Austria. 

Slovakia vs Ukraine 

14:00 Friday, 21 June, BBC

Slovakia pulled off the tournament’s first big upset on Monday when they got the better of Belgium, the third best team in the world according to FIFA rankings. On the other hand, Ukraine suffered a very disappointing 3-0 defeat at the hands of Romania. 

Despite those results, Ukraine come into this one as favourites, priced at 2.16, with SBK. From the moment Ukraine were drawn into the same qualifying group as England and Italy, it was always going to be an uphill battle to reach Euro 2024. They ended up finishing on the same points as the Italian side but due to a worse goal difference had to go through play-offs to book their place in Germany. 

One of the themes of Ukraine’s qualifying campaign was their goalkeepers being forced into making saves. Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin, Benfica’s Anatoliy Trubin and Dynamo Kyiv’s Georgiy Buschan all took turns between the sticks and were forced into an average of 3.1 saves per game. Lunin was incredibly disappointing in their loss to Romania and was at fault for two of the three goals. The Ukrainian goal was peppered through the 90 minutes with Romania racking up five shots on target despite only having 28% possession. 

Slovakia produced a backs to the wall performance against Belgium and with the help of VAR managed to hold on to a one-goal lead for 83 minutes. Slovakia were impressive in qualifying - winning seven of their ten matches - and in their opening match so they look a big price to win here at 3.90. In their match with Belgium, they got off a total of ten shots with four being on target.

Back over 2.5 saves for Andriy Lunin @ 1.98 (Make sure you wait until the line-ups are revealed because I wouldn’t be stunned to see either Trubin or Buschan in goal)

Poland vs Austria

17:00 Friday, 21 June, ITV

Poland and Austria go in search of their first points of the tournament in this one after they lost out to the Netherlands and France respectively.

Poland were without their talisman for the match against the Netherlands after Robert Lewandowski picked up a thigh injury in their final warm-up match. He is expected to return for this clash which will give the attack and the team in general a massive boost. However, there can be no doubt that in his advancing age his powers are fading.

Austria were incredibly impressive in their opening fixture as they caused France plenty of difficulty and managed to keep the mercurial Kylian Mbappe relatively quiet. Ralf Rangnick’s side have been in really strong form of late, finishing a comfortable second place in their qualification group and only tasting defeat once. They look a decent bet for the win here at 2.02. 

One of the key themes of Poland’s qualifying campaign was an inability to control the game at either end of the pitch, as they scored 15 but conceded 11. This led to an average of 3.25 goals per game in qualifying. We have also seen plenty of goals so far this tournament with 47 at an average of 2.62 per game, so backing over 2.5 in this one seems a good bet. 

Back Austria to win and over 2.5 goals @ 3.15

France vs Netherlands

20:00 Friday, 21 June, BBC 

The big game of the day gets underway at 8pm in Leipzig. Both sides won their opening games but harbour hopes of going all the way in Germany.

France will be sweating over the fitness of their captain Kylian Mbappe, after he suffered a broken nose in their victory over Austria. There is no doubt he is one of the best players in the world, but France have plenty of options in attack. 

The last time they played without Mbappe was a 2-1 loss to Germany back in December. That night Kolo Muani partnered Antoine Griezmann up top with Kingsley Coman joining the attack. Will they go for something similar in this match?

The Netherlands had to fight back from 1-0 down to beat Poland in their opener with goals from Cody Gakpo and Burnley’s Wout Weghorst handing them all three points. It wasn’t an assured performance from them though as they conceded 12 shots including seven on target. 

Interestingly, these two sides were in the same qualification group so we can take a look back at those matches to see how this one might pan out. France won both, 4-0 at home and then 2-1 away. Mbappe was crucial, scoring a brace in both games. 

Including the two wins in qualifying, France have won seven of their last eight meetings and have not tasted defeat in this fixture since 2018. Backing them to win seems sensible then at 2.38. 

Given the number of goals that have been scored at the tournament, an average of 2.62 per game, I think over 2.5 goals in this one seems a decent bet. This would have also clicked both times the two sides met in qualifying. 

Back France to win and over 2.5 goals @ 3.60

Recommended Bets

Back Andriy Lunin to have over 2.5 saves against Slovakia @ 1.98
Back Austria to beat Poland and over 2.5 goals @ 3.15
Back France to beat Netherlands and over 2.5 goals @ 3.60