England v Italy Betting Tips and Preview: Three Lions to edge out Azzurri in tight affair

Gareth Southgate’s side put their campaign on hold at the weekend. They instead faced Australia in a friendly, with Ollie Watkins’ second-half goal the only difference between the two teams at Wembley.

It was, in truth, an underwhelming performance from England. The Socceroos had chances to score and on another night they could easily have avoided defeat. England produced a laboured display and Southgate admitted afterwards that his team were not “cohesive”.

It would be an error to read too much into the sub-par showing, however. Southgate shuffled his pack, naming an XI comprised of players that have rarely appeared alongside one another. We will see a more familiar team when Italy come to town this week.

The Australia friendly gave Southgate a valuable chance to experiment with personnel ahead of the European Championship next summer. A victory here would see England qualify for that tournament, thus giving them an opportunity to rotate in the November qualifiers against Malta and North Macedonia.

Although England can secure a place at the Euros with a win in this game, a defeat for Italy would not be fatal. The race for the second qualification berth in Group C is between the Azzurri and Ukraine, with the latter due to face - and likely to beat - Malta on Tuesday.

A win for Ukraine and a loss for Italy would see Luciano Spalletti’s side drop out of the top two, but the reigning European champions would still have their fate in their own hands. A win against North Macedonia and a draw against Ukraine on the final matchday would be sufficient for Italy regardless of the outcome at Wembley.

That is just as well, because the Italians head into this game as underdogs. Whereas England have got stronger since losing to their upcoming opponents in the final of the European Championship two years ago, Italy have regressed. They missed out on World Cup 2022 - they have not won a knockout game at that tournament since 2006 - and lost their first Euro 2024 qualifier to England in Naples.

With home advantage behind them, we fancy Southgate’s side’s chances of doing the double over Italy, who are still adjusting to Spalletti’s system and style following Roberto Mancini’s surprise defection to the Saudi Arabia national team.

 Goals could be few and far between, though. Southgate remains a cautious tactician by nature, especially in the big games. And while Spalletti is an attack-minded coach, Italy will find it tough to impose themselves on this match at Wembley.

 It could take England a little while to find their rhythm given the changes that were made against Australia, but the hosts should ultimately get the job done.

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Back England to win, a draw at half time and under 2.5 goals @ 7.0