England v Iran Tips: Expect a low-scoring World Cup 2022 opener for Southgate’s side
By Robin Bairner
England v Iran Odds20 November 2022
England begin their 2022 FIFA World Cup campaign on Monday with a clash against an Iran side that has never been beyond the group stages of the competition.
It is expected to be a relatively gentle introduction to the competition for Gareth Southgate’s side, with matches against the USA and Wales to come in Group B.
However, there are complicating factors. The most notable is that the Three Lions have only had limited opportunity to acclimatise to the Qatar heat, whereas their opponents are far more used to the conditions they will be met with.
With the pressure on, it would certainly represent a blow for England if they were to fail to win the opening game of what promises to be a unique World Cup.
Seeking to break with tradition
England begin the tournament as fifth favourites to go all the way in Qatar, with Southgate’s side on offer at 11. Only Brazil, Argentina, France and Spain are available to back at shorter prices. And there is good reason for the Three Lions to be confident - after all, they are tournament tested as the only side to make the semi-finals at both the last World Cup and Euro 2020.
However, Southgate’s side has struggled in the past when asked to take the game to opponents of a certain standard. They may have been free scoring in qualifying, netting on 39 occasions, but, while Iran are hardly giants of the world game, they are substantially stronger than the likes of Andorra and San Marino, who England struck against 24 times.
Furthermore, this is not an England group that is high in confidence as they were relegated from the Nations League and winless in six matches.
It would also be a big departure from recent history if they were to win comfortably. England have typically struggled in World Cup opening fixtures, with 2018’s last-gasp win over Tunisia a case in point. In the last five competitions, they have only twice come away with three points in their first match – and both of those wins were ugly single-goal successes.
Iran will be competitive
Iran’s build up to the World Cup has been more comprehensive than England. They have played two friendlies over the course of the 10 days and recorded a 1-0 win over Nicaragua in Tehran, followed by a 2-0 loss to Tunisia in Doha last week. The latter was an ‘unofficial match’ and little more than a training exercise.
Carlos Queiroz’s side will seek any edge they can get against a more glamorous opponent. Iran have won only two matches in their previous five visits to World Cup finals tournaments, with the Portuguese boss leading them into his third competition in succession.
England should note how competitive Iran was in Russia 2018. After a dramatic late success over Morocco, they lost by a single goal to Spain and snatched a 1-1 draw against Portugal, missing out on qualification by one point in a pool they were not expected to be a factor in. A similar performance this time around would be considered a success of sorts.
Maguire undervalued
England should prove too good for Iran, but it’s unlikely to be a blowout success with conditions likely to play their part. 1.39 about an England win looks short.
Where might there be value? England have scored 12 of their last 18 goals at the World Cup from set pieces. Harry Maguire, who has seven goals in 48 caps, looks a tasty bet to be first scorer at 13 or anytime scorer at 9.8.
Indeed, goals are likely to be at a premium. Eight of Iran’s nine international’s this year have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, while England’s figure is two of their six competitive games. I’ll take the unders at 1.72.