Focus Fixture: Will Three Lions return to winning ways against Slovenia

England play their final group game against Slovenia on Tuesday as they look to secure a more favourable draw in the round of 16. Performances have left a lot to be desired but there is still time for Gareth Southgate’s side to hit the required level to win the tournament.

The Form

England are in the driving seat as we approach the final round of matches in Group C. They have picked up four points from their opening two matches and many felt this final game against Slovenia would be the most straightforward. However, their place in the top two isn’t guaranteed.

The Three Lions were perhaps fortunate to come away with a point against Denmark. They took the lead through Harry Kane but continued to sit deep and invited pressure from the Danes. They have had fewer shots than their opponents in both of their group matches so they must improve if they are to get their hands on the trophy before the summer is out. 

Slovenia have drawn both of their matches so far. They had to fight back from a goal down against Denmark. Matjaz Kez’s team created plenty of chances despite having just 32% possession. They are likely to be starved of the ball once again so expect them to try to threaten on the counter.

The Slovenians were just moments away from winning their second game against Serbia but a 95th-minute goal from Luka Jovic meant they had to settle for a share of the spoils. They are still in with a chance of qualifying for the knockout stages ahead of the meeting with England.

The Runners and Riders

England will name a full-strength squad with their fate in the tournament still hanging in the balance. Gareth Southgate named the same starting eleven for the first two matches in the group but could be tempted to change something after the underwhelming performances. The jury is still out on Trent Alexander-Arnold in the centre of midfield and he could be the man to drop out here. Marc Guehi has been the most impressive player in the England squad so far.

Slovenia are spearheaded by Benjamin Sesko. The RB Leipzig striker has been courted by several Premier League clubs but has opted to stay in Germany this summer. Jan Oblak is a name that will be familiar to everyone. 

What They Said

Gary Lineker launched a scathing attack on England’s performances so far on a podcast with Micah Richards. The former England striker said, "But tactically, the first game...and we've seen it in other tournaments as well where England kind of start OK, and then get a goal and then everything changes. It's almost like those tactics of get a lead, hang onto it – and the game's moved on from that hasn't it?"

Matjaz Kek was immensely proud of his players after the Serbia game. Victory was snatched away at the end but the manager was delighted with the display. He said,
“We played a brave and honest game against a magnificent backdrop, which will go into the legend of Slovenian sport."

Tip

England have some of the most formidable attackers in the tournament in their ranks so it’s a little surprising they have been so blunt in their opening two matches. Nevertheless, there is no denying the technical ability of the likes of Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham. Their close control and ability to operate in tight spaces has meant that Southgate’s side have forced an average of 16 fouls per game at Euro 2024, more than any other side in the tournament. 

Fouls will almost always lead to cards so we are backing Slovenia to pick up the most cautions at odds of 1.76 here. This bet has won in both of England’s matches so far in this tournament. The Three Lions have picked up just one card across their two matches, whereas their opponents have been awarded five. 

These teams last went toe-to-toe in World Cup qualifying back in 2017. It’s quite some time ago but Slovenia won the card count 5-1 on that occasion. 

Clement Turpin is the referee for this one. The only game he has officiated at the tournament so far was the opener between Germany and Scotland. He dished out three yellow cards and red despite the lopsided scoreline, so don’t expect him to be reluctant to put his hand in his pocket here.

Recommended Bet: Slovenia most cards at 1.72

Bet Builder Tip

We are doubling down on Slovenia to pick up the most cards as part of our bet builder for the game. The next betting angle is England to win to nil.

The Three Lions are under great scrutiny after their display against Denmark and it’s about time they put on a show. They have the quality to keep Slovenia at bay whilst putting on a swashbuckling attacking display of their own. 

Gareth Southgate’s side conceded the fifth fewest goals per game in qualifying with an average of 0.5. England have also managed to keep a clean sheet in their two most recent head-to-heads with Slovenia. 

The last betting angle for this match is for Phil Foden to have at least one shot on target. The Manchester City man, along with Bukayo Saka and Harry Kane, was dragged off just shy of the seventh minute against Denmark. England were unable to get the up to their front three so they could impact the game but Foden still looked a threat at times. He had four shots and hit the woodwork in the 1-1 draw, but more importantly for us, he managed a shot on target.  

Foden enjoyed a marvellous season at Manchester City. He scored 19 goals in 25 Premier League appearances. His average of 3.5 shots per 90 minutes played translated to 1.5 shots on target per 90, so we are backing him to test the goalkeeper once again.

Recommended Bet: Slovenia most cards, England to win to nil & Phil Foden over 0.5 shots on target at 5.00