Focus Fixture: Scott Thornton's 22/1 Bet Builder for Netherlands vs England

England take on the Netherlands in the semi-finals of Euro 2024 on Wednesday night. This should prove to be the toughest test of the tournament so far for Gareth Southgate’s side.

The Form

The Three Lions are yet to taste defeat at the tournament but they have rode their luck to say the least. England were seconds away from elimination against Slovakia in the round of 16. A tremendous overhead kick from Jude Bellingham was enough to force extra time and England got the win.

It was Jordan Pickford and England’s five penalty takers who were the heroes against Switzerland. The Everton shot-stopper denied Akanji before Trent Alexander-Arnold smashed the decisive penalty into the top left corner. The scores have been level at the end of normal time in England’s last four matches and this should be another tight affair. 

The Netherlands came from behind to beat Turkey in their last game. The 3-0 win over Romania in the round of 16 was their most convincing performance at the European Championships but they seemed to regress in the quarter-finals. 

The Dutch finished third in their group and would have been dumped out of the tournament in previous editions with that outcome. the new format enabled them to progress and they can make the most of that lifeline by reaching the final.

The Runners and Riders

Gareth Southgate opted to change his formation for the last game but it didn’t have the desired effect. The England supporters had hoped to see the team bare their teeth in attack. It’s unclear what shape the team will use here and there are some big decisions for Southgate to make,  Ezri Konsa came in for the suspended Marc Guehi in the last game and performed well. Luke Shaw is also waiting for his first start of the tournament. The Manchester United man played from the 78th minute on in England’s last game and could get the nod here.

Ronald Koeman should name an unchanged eleven for this semi-final. Steven Bergwijn got the nod over Donyell Malen against Turkey. Joshua Zirkzee, who appears to be Premier League-bound, is featured from the bench against Turkey but is unlikely to start.

What They Said

Gareth Southgate was in a buoyant mood following the win over Switzerland and he feels England have what it takes to go all the way. He said, "To come from behind again and show the character and resilience we did, talking to the players about that, winning tournaments isn't just about playing well. It's not just about that. You've got to show other attributes to win and we showed them all tonight.”

Like England, the Netherlands are yet to face top-tier opposition in the knockout stages thus far but Ronald Koeman maintained that his team have had to perform to get to this stage. The former Barcelona boss said, “There are no ‘small countries’ in football any more, we shouldn’t think we haven’t had a big opponent yet because I find that disrespectful. Also to Turkey.”

Selection

England may not have been at their swashbuckling best at this tournament but their abundance of attacking quality has still given the opposition plenty to do. Gareth Southgate’s side have forced an average of 13.4 fouls per game, the second most at Euro 2024. That tally excludes fouls won in extra time so that data is relevant to this bet that will be settled on what happens in normal time. 

Just two of their 13 centre-backs that have started against England at this tournament have managed to not commit a foul. Those players have combined for a total of 17 fouls so we are backing Stefan De Vrij to make one here.

The Netherlands’ foul count at the European Championships has been rather modest. They have made an average of 11.2 per game, just above the tournament average of 10.91 fouls per team in any given match.

The 12 fouls made by Virgil Van Dijk is more than any other player at the tournament but it is Stefan De Vrij who is our focus here thanks to his lower bet line. We are backing the defender to make at least one foul here. This bet has won in the Netherlands’ four matches since their opening match against Poland. The Inter Milan defender made two fouls in the quarter-final clash with Turkey and should be bust one again.

Recommended Bet: Over 0.5 fouls for Stefan De Vrij at 1.74

Bet Builder Tip 

For our longer odds bet builder tip, we are backing De Vrij to make two or more fouls as well as Cody Gakpo to have at least two shots on target. 

Cody Gakpo is the favourite to win the Golden Boot ahead of this game. He is one of four players tied on three goals but he is the only one that is still in the competition. Gakpo has found plenty of space out wide and has been able to let fly. He has had eight shots on target across his five matches at the tournament and we are backing him to have two here.

At club level, Gakpo didn’t have the best of seasons. He scored eight goals in 35 Premier League games but his shot numbers show a little more promise. Cody averages 3.6 shots per 90 minutes in the league with 1.3 of those finding the target. 

England have conceded an average of just eight shots per game at Euro 2024 but they are yet to face a side that possesses the quality of the Dutch. Southgate’s men were handed an easy run to the last four so they face more attempts here. The Three Lions conceded 19 shots the last time they faced the Netherlands. 

Recommended Bet: Over 1.5 fouls for Stefan De Vrij & over 1.5 shots on target for Cody Gakpo at 23.00