Focus Fixture: England to sweep Finland aside at Wembley

England made the perfect start to life under Lee Carsley when they secured a 2-0 victory over the Republic of Ireland. The Three Lions will now play their first game at Wembley since Gareth Southgate stepped down as boss.

The Form

England have been one of the most consistent teams in international football since 2018 but that hasn’t been rewarded with a trophy. The team fell short in the final of Euro 2024 and the Word Cup triumph in 1966 is still the only time that the Three Lions have tasted success. Gareth Southgate’s side went into the European Championships as favourites but their performance levels throughout the tournament were poor. The team laboured their way to the final before being beaten by a rampant Spanish side.

Southgate oversaw huge changes during his time in charge but stepped down after being unable to get this hugely talented squad over the line. Lee Carsley now has the opportunity to stake his claim for the manager's job as the FA hunt for a permanent successor.

The first game could hardly have gone any better for Carsley and England. The Three Lions kept 76% possession and kept the Irish on the back foot for the whole 90 minutes. The team squandered several opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic but goals from Jack Grealish and Declan Rice were enough to break Irish hearts.

Finland have won just one of their last five matches. That solitary success came against Estonia back in March. Their last competitive win came against San Marino back in November and the odds are firmly stacked against Markku Kanerva’s side here.

The Runners and the Riders

Cole Palmer, Phil Foden and Ollie Watkins all withdrew from the England squad ahead of this round of international fixtures but Carsley still has plenty of options should he want to make a change against Finland. The likes of Eberechi Eze, Jarrod Bowen and John Stones all started on the bench in the win over Ireland.

Finland don’t have an abundance of options so there won’t be wholesale changes despite the lacklustre showing against Greece. Glen Kamara is a name who will be familiar to most. He made the switch from Leeds to Stade Rennais in the summer.

What They Said

Lee Carsley has limited experience as a manager but he said the win over Ireland is a source of confidence. The new England boss said, “It’s done my confidence good and the rest of the staff, as well – that, actually, we’re OK, we’ll be alright.”

Selection

England’s ability to control possession and keep Ireland camped in their own half in Carsley’s first game meant that they forced plenty of fouls. The Three Lions forced an average of 12.6 fouls per game in their 10 matches prior to the trip to Ireland which is a substantial amount. However, Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side committed 15 fouls. Therefore, we are backing Matt Peltola to make two fouls or more as he aims to make a nuisance of himself in the middle of the park here.

Peltola committed 3 fouls as Finland were hammered 3-0 by Greece in their last match. He should have a busy afternoon once again when he squared off against the likes of Kobbie Mainoo, Declan Rice and Jack Grealish.

Jayson Molumby and Will Smallbone were the Irish central midfield players in England’s last game. The former received a yellow card while Will Smallbone committed three fouls. Ireland were overrun in that area of the field and we should expect a similar pattern here.

Recommended Bet: Over 1.5 fouls for Matt Peltola at 1.98

Bet Builder Tip

As part of our bet builder, we are backing England to win the match by at least three goals. Under Southgate, the English national team were criticised for what seemed to be a cautious approach given the abundance of talent in the squad. The Three Lions have scored an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last 10 but there was reason to believe they can become more menacing in their last game.

England were credited with creating seven big chances in their 2-0 win over Ireland. Harry Kane, a man who is usually so clinical in front of goal, squandered two clear-cut chances as his team racked up a total of 16 shots. Let’s hope England aren’t as wasteful this time around.

Finland, on the other hand, were emphatically beaten by a Greece side that aren’t known for their attacking prowess. The Finnish found themselves two goals behind at the break and failed to muster a single shot on targets they went on to lose the game 3-0.

We are also backing England to keep a clean sheet and score in both halves. Finland’s slow start and subsequent toothless display doesn’t bode well ahead of this one. Lee Carsley’s side should make short work of it.

Recommend Bet: England -2.5 handicap, England to score in both halves & England to keep a clean sheet at 3.20