Focus Fixture: Scott Thornton's 5/1 Bet Builder for Denmark vs England

England made a winning start to their Euro 2024 campaign against Serbia but the performance was lacking. They will be hoping to pick up another three points but show signs of improvement when they take on Denmark.

The Form

Denmark have suffered just one defeat in their last 12 matches. That sole loss came against Northern Ireland. They have conceded an average of just 0.69 goals per game during that run but their fixtures have been favourable. The Danes know that stopping England will prove to be a difficult task.

Kasper Hjulmand’s side had to settle for a 1-1 draw in their opening match against Slovenia. Christian Eriksen gave them the lead but the underdogs drew level in the 77th minute. Defeat here would put them on the backfoot ahead of their final game against Serbia.

Expectations are as high as they can be for England. Many of their star players have enjoyed extraordinary seasons at club level. The likes of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden are all match winners in their own right but the manager needs to find the right balance if the team are to end the nation's long wait for an international trophy. 

The Three Lions edged past Serbia in the first game but the performance left many questioning whether or not Gareth Southgate is the man to get this talented bunch over the line.

The Runners and the Riders

Gareth Southgate opted to play Trent Alexander-Arnold next to Declan Rice in the centre of midfield in the last game. His decision to start Phil Foden on the left also meant that England lacked width on that side. Southgate has plenty of options within his squad to alter the complexion of the team, it remains to be seen whether he will roll the dice here. 

Christian Eriksen scored Denmark's only goal against Slovenia. He had Rasmus Hojlund and Jonas Wind ahead of him in the attack. The trio will be hoping to give the England defence something to think about on Thursday. 

What They Said

Demark felt aggrieved when they were knocked out of Euro 2021 by England. A penalty in extra time proved to be the decisive moment of the match. Back in December, Kasper Hjulmand talked about that incident. The Denmark head coach said, "I still wake up at night thinking about that match. Obviously, when you are that close, I think it is something you will always remember and will always carry with you when you are that close to a final.” Revenge is most certainly on the agenda here. 

Gareth Southgate praised England’s resilience following the win over Serbia but admitted there is room for improvement. He said, "I think to defend the box the way we did was really good for us. I was really pleased with a lot of the play. Second half we didn't keep it as well as I would have liked but to get the win is very important."

Tip

At the last European Championships, England forced an average of 12.14 fouls per game. That was comfortably above the tournament average of 10.98. That trend looks set to continue in Euro 2024, Serbia made 19 fouls in England’s opening game so Danish players look to be ideal candidates in the over 1.5 fouls committed market.

Our focus for this bet is Pierre-Emile Hojberg. The Tottenham midfielder made an average of 1.2 fouls per 90 minutes played in the Premier League this season but he should exceed that mark here. He, along with Moren Hjulmand, will be tasked with shackling the likes of Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Phil Foden in the middle of the park. 

Hojberg made one foul in Denmark’s opening game against Slovenia but they enjoyed 68% possession in that game but they will be under the cosh against England. The midfielder made two fouls in his side's two warm-up matches against Norway and Sweden. He even picked up a card against the former.

Both of Serbia’s starting centre-midfielders made two fouls in England’s first game despite them playing just 106 minutes of the match combined. Ivan Ilic, the man who came on for Nemanja Gudelj at half-time also made two fouls.

Recommended Bet: Pierre-Emile Hojberg to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.58

Bet Builder Tip

We’ve talked about England’s ability to win free-kicks and the Danes have been more than happy to oblige in the recent meetings between the sides.  Denmark committed 16 fouls when they met at Euro 2021. We are backing Hojberg fouls as part of our bet builder tip for this one but we are also adding Jannik Vestergaard to give away at least one free kick. 

Vestergaard made three fouls in the previously mentioned encounter at the last European Championships. He was directly up against Bukayo Saka on that occasion and will face an improved version of the Arsenal man in this tournament. Saka has been key in the Gunners' challenge for the title in the last two seasons but most importantly for us, he was the fifth most fouled player in the Premier League. Saka was fouled 2.12 times per 90 minutes played. 

The last betting angle is England to win the match. They didn’t look like conceding in their last match, with Serbia finishing the game with an xG of just 0.18. A solid defence is a good platform for them to build on as they look to go all the way in the tournament.

England have what is arguably the strongest side in the tournament. Four of the top eight players in the betting for Player of the Tournament prior to the opening game were English. Southgate will be hoping his array of attacking talent can make this a prettier victory.

Recommended Bet: Hojberg to commit over 1.5 fouls, Vestergaard to commit over 0.5 fouls and England to win at 6.00