EFL Tipsheet: Wrexham take on Notts County in League Two grudge match

After winning four out of four in my midweek EFL bets, I am back with my weekend preview. In the Championship, we head to Wales via Plymouth. In League One we look at a clash between a team fighting promotion and a team battling relegation. Finally, League Two sees two familiar foes reignite their intense recent rivalry.

Plymouth vs Leeds

Kick Off: 12:30, Saturday: Sky Sports Football

Plymouth vs Leeds kicks off a bumper Saturday of Championship football, being broadcast live on Sky Sports. After facing each other twice in the FA Cup, this is now the fourth meeting between the sides this season, with Argyle yet to win.

After Steven Schumacher swapped Devon for Staffordshire to join Stoke, former England u20 manager Ian Foster took the reins. The 47-year-old has had a commendable start to his tenure, winning three, drawing three and losing two of his eight games in charge. 

Foster was appointed for his attacking philosophy, which has been evident in the fact that Plymouth have scored in every single one of his games thus far. Plymouth have scored the second most home goals (38) with only Southampton (39) scoring more. However, their defensive record needs some improving, with only Blackburn and Preston (27) conceding more than their 25. 

In fact, only Rotherham and Blackburn overall have a worse defensive record than Plymouth. A visit of the third highest scorers in the league is unlikely to do anything to improve that record. 

Daniel Farke’s side are rampant at the moment, having won seven on the bounce in the league, scoring 17 goals in the process. The German is blessed with an abundance of talent in his frontline, with Crysencio Summerville, Georginio Rutter and Wilfried Gnonto proving that they are far too good for this league. 

Plymouth home games are chaotic, with the Pilgrims averaging 1.63 xG and 1.48 xGa per game, and a league high 13/15 home games seeing three or more goals. The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market is unsurprisingly priced at 1.47. However, adding in BTTS takes the price to a very backable 1.91.

With Leeds priced as very heavy favourites (1.44), it suggests a walkover is expected. However, you would still expect Plymouth to add at least one to the scoresheet- something they have done in 17/18 games in all competitions. 

Prediction: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.74

Swansea vs Ipswich

Kick Off: 15:00, Saturday

Swansea haven’t enjoyed the most fruitful season and are struggling to build on last seasons 10th place finish. After much-loved Russel Martin left to recently relegated Southampton, Michael Duff was appointed from Barnsley, but was duly sacked after a disappointing start to the season. 

The Swans swooped in for Luke Williams, with the 42-year-old attracting attention for his attacking and stylistic football. He has certainly brought that entertaining football to South Wales, even if it hasn’t yield the results he has wanted yet. 

His eight games in charge have seen an average of 3.125 goals per game. Williams’ Notts County side were renowned for high-scoring games and his Swansea side look no different. 

63% of their games have seen over 2.5 goals, and that number is only going to get higher with Williams in charge. Three of his games have been against the top 4, losing them 1-3, 3-1 and 0-4, with the 42-year-old perhaps showing tactical naivety in these games.

Swansea have a poor record at the Liberty Stadium, claiming just four wins and 17 points – the fourth worst record in the league. Games here have averaged over 3.125 goals. 

Ipswich have been the surprise package in the Championship thus far, with Kieran McKenna’s side just one point off the automatic promotion places after coming runners up in League One last season. 

The Tractor Boys have excelled going forward, with only Southampton and Leicester scoring more. Away from home, they have the second best record in the league, picking up 29 points, losing just three times in 16.

After a slight wobble that’s saw them win just one league game in nine, Ipswich responded to critics in the best way possible, dismantling Millwall 4-0 at the Den, compounding more misery on the Lions.  

Ipswich rank slight below Swansea for ‘over 2.5 goals’ games (61%), but Ipswich games are still entertaining, seeing an average of 3.19. 

With Ipswich only losing four times all season and Swansea only winning four home games, adding Ipswich double chance to over 2.5 goals in a bet builder, presents a nice angle to get goals onside in South Wales.

Prediction: Ipswich double chance and over 2.5 goals @ 1.95.

Bolton vs Charlton

Kick Off: 15:00, Saturday

After defeating Wycombe on the weekend, Bolton are now unbeaten in five league games, as they chase a return to the Championship after a five-season absence. 

Ian Evatt’s side are currently one point off the promotion places with two games in hand, so a win against a lowly Charlton side will certainly help them on their way. The Trotters boast the best home record in League One, accumulating 35 points from 16 games. 

Offensively, Bolton are very strong, scoring 54 in 30 games, with 32 of these coming in 16 home games. Northern Irish international Dion Charles has been their talisman, notching 13 goals already. The Trotters potent attack was strengthened in January with the signing of Aaron Collins from Bristol Rovers. The 26-year-old has 47 goal contributions in his last two full seasons with the Gas.

Charlton, on the other hand, are on the cusp of a shock relegation, despite being touted as one of the favourites for promotion. After a poor start to the season, Dean Holden was relieved of his duties, with the experienced Michael Appleton the man tasked with reviving the Addicks stuttering season. 

The 48-year-old however flattered to deceive, winning just 29% of his games in charge, before being dismissed after a 2-3 defeat at home to Northampton. Nathan Jones is the man the hierarchy have turned to, tasked with galvanising a club in peril. 

A loss at Reading and a draw to Lincoln signals a tough start to life in the Charlton dugout and things will only get trickier, with trips to Bolton and Derby and the visit of Portsmouth on the agenda. 

Charlton have only won one of their 15 away games, conceding 24. A daunting journey to the best home side in the league awaits and I’m predicting the Trotters to pile further misery on a big club on the decline. 

Prediction: Bolton win & over 1.5 goals @ 1.75.

Wrexham vs Notts County 

Kick Off: 15:00, Saturday

After going blow for blow in a gruelling title race that saw various National League records smashed, Wrexham and Notts County face off once again in arguably the tie of the weekend.

Wrexham, as expected, are challenging towards the top of the table. Phil Parkinson’s side currently sit fourth in the league, boasting the best home record in the league. The Red Dragons have gained 35 points in 15 games at the Racecourse, scoring 43 goals in the process. Bradford are the only team to prevent Wrexham scoring at least twice this season in Wales, with a strike force of Elliot Lee, Steven Fletcher, Jack Marriot, Ollie Palmer and Paul Mullin amongst the best in the league. Ben Tozer and William Boyle also add goal threat from set pieces. Games at the Racecourse have seen an average of 4.33 goals.

The visitors Notts County aren’t shy of a goal.  The Magpies 65 goals is the second highest in the division, with Macaulay Langstaff scoring 22 already. Jodi Jones’ 21 assists is already a divisional record, and Stuart Maynard will need the Maltese international on full form if his side are to escape Wales with some points.

Notts County aren’t happy travellers, conceding 35 goals in 16 away games, with these games averaging 3.93 goals. 

With two high scoring teams and the strongest home side in the division, do not be surprised to see a plethora of goals in this match.

Prediction: Wrexham win and BTTS @ 3.15

Recommended Bets:

Back Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals in Plymouth vs Leeds @ 1.74
Back Ipswich double chance and over 2.5 goals vs Swansea @ 1.97
Back Bolton to beat Charlton and over 1.5 goals @ 1.75
Back Wrexham to beat Notts County and BTTS @ 3.15