EFL League Two Outright Betting Tips: Back MK Dons for the title at 8/1

23 July 2024

The start of the League Two season is upon us again, with 24 teams vying for four promotion places, while two will suffer the unfortunate fate of dropping down to non-League football. Here are my betting selections for league winner, automatic promotion, top seven finish and going down.

Champions

MK Dons

League Two looks to be as competitive of a league as ever, with many teams fancying their chances of promotion to League One. While National League champions Chesterfield are favourites for the title after getting promoted with ease, I think it is a tough ask to do back-to-back titles - even despite the abundance of talent their squad clearly has.  

MK Dons went into last season’s play-offs as favourites for promotion. Mike Williamson had transformed a stuttering side and got them playing easy-on-the-eye football, lifting them into the play-offs and giving them a two-legged tie against perennial underdogs Crawley Town.

MK became unstuck against Crawley, being thumped 8-1 on aggregate, meaning they play yet another season in League Two. Still, the fine form under Williamson and an aggressive approach to this summer’s window has given them hope of promotion. 

Liam Kelly, who was so instrumental in Crawley’s promotion, has dropped down a level to play in the Dons midfield. Joe Pritchard is a fantastic operator in the centre of the park but has been riddled with injuries. If he can stay fit, he may prove to be a real coup after signing from Accrington.

Despite losing top scorer Max Dean to Belgian club KAA Gent for a significant fee, MK are arguably in a stronger position to compete than they were last year. 

Dean has been replaced by Callum Hendry from Salford. The Scot scored nine goals in just 17 starts, averaging 0.52 goals per 90. Tommy Leigh also joins from Accrington after 13 goal contributions in 37 starts last term. 

Connor Lemonheigh-Evans has made the controversial decision to sign – despite scoring seven goals and getting four assists in 26 starts for bitter rivals AFC Wimbledon last season. 

Sam Sherring (Northampton), Luke Offord (Crewe) and Laurence Maguire (Chesterfield) all bolster Williamson’s side defensively. 

 With the strong trio of Stockport County, Wrexham and Mansfield all promoted, MK Dons will fancy their chances of going one further this year and winning the league.

 Prediction: MK Dons to win the title @ 9.00

Promotion

Port Vale

Port Vale were disappointing in League One, ultimately getting relegated. Darren Moore was brought in to steady the ship and mount a survival challenge, but he flattered to deceive in his short stint at the end of last season. However, the Vale hierarchy have stuck by the 50-year-old and have backed him with some impressive signings.  

Perhaps the standout signing is George Byers who arrives from Moore’s ex-club Sheffield Wednesday. Byers is a neat and tidy centre midfielder, perfect for a side looking to control possession. If he plays to his capability, Port Vale have the best midfielder in the league at their disposal. He will be partnered by Ryan Croasdale who signs on a free from Stockport. Croasdale has promotion experience and will allow creative players such as Byers and Ben Garrity to flourish.

They have also strengthened upfront. After a fine season for Lorent Tolaj, scoring 19 goals for Aldershot, the Swiss was joined for a significant fee. Ruari Paton will partner him upfront. Paton has moved south from Queens Park in Scotland after scoring 22 goals in 43 games. The signing of the 22-year-old is seen as a major coup, as he was linked with plenty of teams higher up the table.  

Ronan Curtis joins on a free after a successful short stint at AFC Wimbledon last year, where he got seven goal contributions in 16 games. Curtis enjoyed a stellar five years in League One with Portsmouth, so adds even more ammunition to an extremely potent Valiants attack.

While the ambition is clear, and the midfield and attack look stacked, defensive issues still linger for Port Vale. Such a high turnover may mean they start slow, but once Vale click, they should motor up the league. 

Port Vale to be promoted @ 3.30

Gillingham

Expectation and optimism were rife in Gillingham last year after heavy investment from the new ownership. However, Gillingham flattered to deceive, stumbling to twelfth in a low-scoring season that saw three different managers.  

However, this summer, Mark Bonner has been appointed after a miraculous few seasons at Cambridge, including an unexpected promotion from League Two. A strong 2-0 home win over Championship side Watford in pre-season has got the people of Gillingham believing in their team again, further creating a ‘feel good’ factor around the Priestfield Stadium.  

Armani Little was linked with League One moves while with AFC Wimbledon but has decided to stay in League Two and sign for the Gills. As mentioned, a problem area for Gillingham was goals – an area Bonner has addressed swiftly.  

After 17 goals and 13 assists in a struggling Accrington team, Jack Nolan has joined Gillingham, as well as Aaron Rowe who impressed on loan at Crewe and Elliott Nevitt who scored 0.52 goals per 90 for Alex. Nevitt brings much more than goals though, his ability to cause problems with his physicality and link up play is an underrated facet to his game. Marcus Wyllie has also signed after scoring 34 times in 49 appearances for Enfield Town as they were promoted to the National League South. 

Gillingham’s defence still remains solid, and they have added much needed strength to the attack. With a manager with promotion-winning experience at the helm and plenty of cash behind them, Gillingham could be a threat at the top of the table. 

Gillingham to get promoted @ 2.82

Top Seven Finish 

Fleetwood Town 

Despite being tipped by some as a dark horse in League One last season, Fleetwood were relegated, citing many off-the-field issues as a major reason. 

Departures have come, as expected, but with significant fees received for Promise Omochere and Cian Hayes, The Cods are well versed to mount a playoff push, despite being tipped for the bottom half.  

Elliot Bonds brings experience after signing from Cheltenham and will form a brilliant partnership with Matty Virtue who was touted for League One moves but signed for Fleetwood.

Arsenal academy graduate Zech Medley signs from Belgian outfit KV Oostende. At 6 '5, the 23-year-old is aerially dominant and excels at bringing the ball out from the back. James Bolton signs from St Mirren at right back, having amassed a wealth of experience in the EFL before he moved north of the border last summer. Mackensie Hunt also joins from Everton having spent nine seasons on Merseyside. 

Ronan Coughlan signed in January from Waterford after 37 goals in 35 games and will be keen to show his goalscoring expertise after a full pre-season. Creative maestro Phoenix Patterson and livewire Junior Quitirna add quality on the wing, as well as Ryan Broom, Danny Mayor and Ryan Graydon.  

A lot of Fleetwood’s season may hinge on the future of captain Brendan Wierdu who is a Rolls-Royce of a centre back. I feel the Cods are being massively underpriced after their relegation from League One and are quietly building an impressive team.

Fleetwood to finish top 7: @ 3.90

Recommended Bets

Back MK Dons to win League Two @ 7.00
Back Port Vale to be promoted @ 3.30
Back Gillingham to get promoted @ 2.82
Back Fleetwood Town to finish in the top 7 @ 3.90 

Latest League Two Betting Odds

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