EFL Cup Semi-Final Tips: Magpies ready for long-awaited final

The first chance to secure silverware in English football this season isn’t too far away, and there could be a new name on the League Cup trophy.

Two of the four teams in the Carabao Cup semi-finals have never lifted the trophy before, while one other club hasn’t won it in over 30 years. The only anomaly is one of the most successful teams in the tournament’s history. Football expert Joe Crann takes a look at how things might pan out. 

Southampton v Newcastle United

Kick-off: 8pm Tuesday 

It has been 10 years since a team outside the established ‘top six’ won this competition, and this semi-final match-up means at least one club without previous success in this tournament will be at Wembley next month.

Smart money is probably on the high-flying Magpies as they look to reach their first final of the 21st century, but the Saints saw off Carabao Cup heavyweights Manchester City in the quarter-finals so can’t be written off. 

The head-to-head record favours Eddie Howe’s side with six victories in their last eight meetings against Saints - they have also lost just twice since 2017. All of those matches came in the Premier League, with this being their first cup meeting in almost two decades. Add to that the fact that Newcastle have one of the meanest defences in the country this season, and it’s easy to see why they are heavy favourites (1.8).

Southampton’s home record is pretty poor - three wins in 13 games over 90 minutes this season - but they have only failed to score in three of them, so both teams to score (1.95) might be worth a look. It finished 4-1 to Newcastle the last time they met, and at St. Mary’s too, so over 1.5 goals should be a foregone conclusion. 

Prediction: Newcastle to win and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.93

Nottingham Forest v Manchester United

Kick-off: 8pm Wednesday 

This used to be a regular top-flight fixture in English football, but Forest’s lengthy spell outside of the Premier League meant that December’s meeting - a 3-0 Red Devils win - was their first meeting in over 20 years.

United have won their last seven games against Forest and haven’t lost to them since 1994, scoring three or more goals in six of those matches.

Erik ten Hag: has got Manchester United playing some inspired football

History aside, over 2.5 goals (1.93) looks a good shout given the goalscoring form of Erik ten Hag’s men and the upturn in fortunes for Steve Cooper and his side. But there’s also an argument to make for this being a tight affair given that there’s a second leg to come.

A straight Forest win is 5.6 (they haven’t lost at home since September), but United are in good form despite their pulsating 3-2 defeat to Arsenal on Sunday. Add to that the fact they’ve got one of the most in-form attackers in the country in Marcus Rashford (nine goals in nine games) and they should have too much firepower for their challengers.

Prediction: Manchester United win and Over 2.5 goals @ 2.56

Carabao Cup Semi-Final Tips

Southampton v Newcastle: Newcastle to win and Over 1.5 goals @ 1.93
Notts Forest v Man United: Manchester United to win and Over 2.5 goals @ 2.56