EFL Cup Outright Betting Tips: Arteta's men can go all the way

The EFL Cup gets underway with the first round tonight. Each of the 70 teams playing their first match in the competition tonight will be desperate to go all the way to Wembley and get their hands on silverware. While the Premier League sides who are playing in Europe won’t join for a couple of rounds, it is still worth looking at who starts the competition as favourites. 

Manchester City - 3.65

Manchester City will always be in the discussion when it comes to silverware and they are the favourites to win the EFL Cup this season. Pep Guardiola’s side lifted the Community Shield after a penalty shootout win over Manchester United and will be looking to fight on all fronts once again. City often rotate their squad for the League Cup but their fringe players are more than capable of going deep into the competition. Pep has already won the trophy on four occasions.

The Citizens have been quiet in the summer window but they remain the team to beat. No team scored more than Pep’s side in the Premier League last season. The FA Cup final is their only loss in 90 minutes in their last 37 matches. They have scored an average of 262 goals per game and conceded just 0.81 over that period. 

Arsenal - 8.4

Arsenal have established themselves as one of the leading teams in the country in the last couple of years but silverware remains elusive. Mikel Arteta lifted the FA Cup in his first season as Gunners boss but they have struggled to add to that trophy haul. This season’s EFL Cup could be the perfect opportunity to end the drought and act as a platform for future success.

The Gunners boasted the best defence in the Premier League last season. They conceded just 0.76 goals per game on average and had the lowest xGA with 0.74, 0.22 less than Manchester City.  Arteta’s men had looked on course to win the league at one stage but Manchester City’s consistency down the home stretch meant Arsenal were caught late on. They remain one of the standout teams in England and will want to be rewarded in silverware during this upcoming campaign.

Chelsea - 9.8

Chelsea are enduring their longest trophy drought since 2003. The club won 18 major trophies when owned by Roman Abramovich but the new ownership has struggled to find the winning formula. The Blues were beaten by Liverpool in extra time in the final of the League Cup last season but are capable of reaching the latter stages once again. 

Enzo Maresca has called for patience since taking over for Mauricio Pochettino. The former Leicester City boss needs time to implement his style of play. Chelsea’s underlying data suggests they should have finished fifth last season. Wasteful finishing and defensive errors meant they could only manage Europa Conference League qualification. 

Liverpool - 9.8

Liverpool were on course for the quadruple when they lifted the League Cup last season. The trophy turned out to be the last of Jurgen Klopp’s tenure with the club. The same competition is the first available piece of silverware for Arne Slot.

The Reds burnt out towards the end of the campaign but were one of the most menacing sides in the country. They finished the season with the highest xG in the Premier League with 94.79. Liverpool have looked just as potent in pre-season, scoring 10 goals and winning four of their five matches. 

Newcastle - 11.0

Newcastle were plagued by injury last season and it saw them fail to qualify for Europe, a year after returning to the Champions League. However, no European football could aid them as they pursue their first major trophy since 1955. 

The Magpies were unfortunate to finish seventh last season. Their expected points tally suggests they should have wound up finishing in fourth place.  Eddie Howe’s side had the third highest xG in the division with a total of 84.48. Alexander Isak struggled for fitness early on but he was lethal in the second half of the season. The Swedish striker scored 21 league goals, only Cole Palmer and Erling Haaland netted more. It’s hard to envisage Newcastle being as unlucky with injuries this season so they should go deep in the cup competitions.

Manchester United - 13.5

Manchester United were poor in the Premier League last season but they did manage to win the FA Cup. It was the second trophy of Erik Ten Hag’s tenure, adding to the EFL Cup the club won in 2023. The Red Devils are targeting a return to title contention in the medium term but another trophy would represent success in this campaign. 

Ten Hag would have been deeply concerned with the underlying data surrounding his side last season. United’s performance levels were akin to a side battling relegation. They would have finished fifteenth if the expected points totals had proven accurate. Despite the poor displays, they did manage to turn it on when it mattered in the FA Cup final. The Red Devils upset the odds and got one over on Manchester City and they are capable of cup success once more. 

Selection

Arenal are the side I’m backing to win the EFL Cup. This competition could act as a springboard for further success and they have proven that they are the team closest to Manchester City as things stand.

Recommended Bet: Arsenal to win the EFL Cup @ 8.40

Longer Odds Bet

Manchester United lacked the consistency to be competitive in the league last season as they slumped to their worst-ever Premier League finish. Nevertheless, they tasted success in the cup. Erik Ten Hag has iterated the importance of trophies and this could be their best opportunity to get another under their belt this season. 

Recommended bet: Manchester United to win the EFL Cup @ 13.50