EFL Cup Betting Tips: Back Duran to find the back of the net against Wycombe

While the majority of EFL Cup Round Three fixtures were played last week, those Premier League teams involved in Europe (and Leicester) play this week. This tipsheet covers five of the six scheduled games. 

Chelsea vs Barrow

Tuesday September 24
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on Sky Sports X

In a true ‘David vs Goliath’ clash, two-times Champions of Europe, Chelsea, host League Two side Barrow at Stamford Bridge, a game in which the visitors are priced at 40.00 to win. 

Under Enzo Maresca’s stewardship, Chelsea have started the season strongly, losing just once as they sit fifth in the Premier League. In a recent press conference, Maresca stated that he had ‘two players for every attacking position.’ 

If this is the case, it would not be a surprise to see him deviate from the recent attacking quartet of Jadon Sancho, Cole Palmer, Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson. 

That means we should see a front four of Pedro Neto, Joao Felix, Mykhaylo Mudryk and Christopher Nkunku on Tuesday. Felix has rejoined the Blues after four goals in 20 appearances in 2023, and has already scored this season, despite not starting a game. 

In just 109 Premier League minutes, the Portuguese international has had five shots, averaging 4.13 shots per 90. 

While Barrow sit atop of League Two, the gulf of Chelsea’s expensively assembled squad compared to Barrow’s should be apparent, with Felix looking to stake a claim in the starting lineup. 

Prediction: Joao Felix to score @ 1.73

Walsall vs Leicester 

Tuesday September 24
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on Sky Sports X

Walsall host Leicester at the Bescot Stadium, hoping to claim a Premier League scalp, after beating League One sides Huddersfield and Exeter in previous rounds. 

The Saddlers currently sit third in League Two, winning five and losing two of their opening seven games. Matt Saddlers side have been impressive at home, winning all three games. Their defence has been a key reason for their strong start, conceding just four times in the league, keeping four clean sheets and allowing just 5.56 xGa. 

Leicester have yet to win in the Premier League and look set for a relegation battle. The Foxes are fresh off a 1-1 draw against fellow strugglers Everton and face an arduous task away at Arsenal on Saturday. 

With so much financial scrutiny for Leicester if they get relegated, surviving will be Steve Cooper’s first priority, so it should be a heavily rotated side. 

This bet has won every Walsall league game and for every Leicester opponent, so there is value there – despite the gulf in leagues.  

Prediction: Walsall +1.5 Handicap @ 1.74

Wycombe vs Aston Villa

Tuesday September 24
Kick Off:20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

The name on everyone’s lips right now is Jhon Duran. The Colombian maverick has been in fine fettle this season and is pushing Ollie Watkins for a regular starting berth. 

The 20-year-old only started three Premier League games last season, coming off the bench in 20 games, scoring five goals. His shot volume was high, averaging 3.90 shots and 1.36 shots per 90, as well as averaging 0.97 goals per 90. 

While he is yet to start a Premier League game this season, Duran has scored four goals from five sub appearances – only failing to score against Arsenal. His four goals have come in just 131 minutes, as well as having a fantastic goal disallowed in the Champions League win over Young Boys. 

Jhon Duran should start against Wycombe as Unai Emery rotates his side ahead of a busy schedule. 

Prediction: Jhon Duran to score @ 2.48

Arsenal vs Bolton

Wednesday September 25+
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on Sky Sports X

Arsenal will relish the chance to be back at the Emirates after a trio of difficult away games in the space a week. Mikel Arteta’s side swept archrivals Tottenham aside, winning 0-1 thanks to a Gabriel header. A 0-0 draw at Italian side Atalanta followed, before a 2-2 draw at champions Manchester City in a match that was littered with controversy. 

The match against Manchester City in particular was an arduous task, with the Gunners having to play the whole second half with ten men. Arteta had all 10 men behind the ball as they looked to escape with all three points. 

As is the case with the other Premier League teams, rotation is expected. Bukayo Saka was hooked at half time on Sunday so will be given a rest. Raheem Sterling was signed from Chelsea in the summer window and looks set to be given his first start in an Arsenal shirt. 

Sterling has been a prolific goal scorer in the Premier League for the last ten years now and will be looking to restore some of his reputation at Arsenal. The 29-year-old was one of the many players culled at Chelsea in a mass exodus, despite eight Premier League goals last season. 

In his last 11 seasons, Sterling has only failed to score double digits once, so will be looking to repeat this accolade in limited game time with Arsenal. 

After a heart break in last season’s play-offs, Bolton have started this season sluggishly and will be dreading a trip to an unbeaten Arsenal side. Ian Evatt’s side currently sit eighteenth in the league, having conceded 11 goals in six games, keeping just one clean sheet. 

In a game where Arsenal should score a few, Raheem Sterling looks a tempting price to score his first Emirates goal.

Prediction: Raheem Sterling to score @ 1.99

Liverpool vs West Ham

Wednesday September 25
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

The final game of the EFL Cup slate comes from Anfield, with Liverpool hosting West Ham in an all-Premier League clash. 

Under Arne Slot, The Reds have had a strong start to the season – shock home defeat to Nottingham Forest aside. The sides met in this competition last season, with Liverpool running out comfortable 5-1 winners. 

Liverpool are blessed with strong depth – particularly in attack. Darwin Nunez started in the 3-0 win over Bournemouth, coming in for Diogo Jota, whereas Cody Gakpo started in the UCL triumph at San Siro. While rotation is expected, it should still be a strong Liverpool side. 

Slot has started the same midfield three for every game, so Curtis Jones will get his first start of the season. The academy graduate started 14 games in the Premier League last season, making 1.23 fouls per 90. 

Manchester City's defeat aside, every single starting centre midfielder against West Ham this season. 

 Prediction: Liverpool to win & Curtis Jones over 0.5 fouls committed @ 2.02

Recommended Bets 

Back Joao Felix to score in Chelsea vs Barrow @ 1.73
Back Walsall +1.5 Handicap vs Leicester @ 1.74
Back Jhon Duran to score in Wycombe vs Aston Villa @ 2.48
Back Raheem Sterling to Arsenal vs Bolton @ 1.99
Back Liverpool to win and Curtis Jones to make a foul @ 2.02