EFL Cup Betting Tips: Will there be an upset this week?

Domestic top-flight football returned on the weekend after the dreaded international break and now the EFL Cup is back – this time the third round.

Six-time champions Manchester United host League One Barnsley in Tuesday’s live game, while four-time winners Tottenham Hotspur travel to Championship side Coventry. 

This tipsheet also features all Premier League clashes between Everton and Southampton and Brighton and Wolves, as well as an all-London battle between QPR and Crystal Palace. 

Everton vs Southampton 

Tuesday September 17
Kick Off: 19:45
Live On Sky Sports X

Everton and Southampton are the only two Premier League teams without a point this season, and they face off at Goodison Park with the chance to get into the last 16 and build some much-needed momentum. 

The Toffees started the season with a 0-3 loss to Brighton before following this up with a 4-0 loss at Spurs. Sean Dyche’s side finally looked like they were getting their first Premier League win of the season when they were 2-0 up in the 87th minute at home to Bournemouth. However, Everton collapsed and lost 2-3 to the Cherries. 

They were again leading 2-0 away at Aston Villa but again collapsed to lose 3-2, meaning The Toffees have lost all four league games. Everton’s only cup game saw them beat Doncaster 3-0, meaning all five games have seen over 2.5 goals. 

Southampton opened the season with a 1-0 loss at Newcastle despite playing against ten men for over an hour. In a drab affair, they lost by the same scoreline at home to Nottingham Forest. A heavily rotated, youthful side travelled to Cardiff in the EFL Cup, emerging as 3-5 victors. 

3-1 and 0-3 losses to Brentford and Manchester United respectively followed, leaving Southampton second bottom of the league. While the Saints have been wasteful in front of goal this season, they scored 87 goals last season and conceded 63 for an average of 3.26 goals per game. 

Both teams will be desperate for a win to ease some of the pressure mounting, so expect a highly entertaining affair. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.82

QPR vs Crystal Palace

Tuesday September 17
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on Sky Sports X

QPR host Crystal Palace at Loftus Road in an all-London clash. The R’s looked destined for relegation until Marti Cifuentes was appointed manager. Under his tenure, they were fantastic, staying up by six points.

They have started this season in a similar vein, winning one game, drawing three and losing one. After racing into a 1-0 lead at home to West Brom, QPR lost 3-1 thanks to a Josh Maja hat trick. QPR held firm to beat Cambridge 2-1 in the EFL Cup first round before a spirited comeback to draw 2-2 at Sheffield United. 1-1 draws with Plymouth (league) and Luton (Cup) followed before they beat the Hatters 1-2 away in the league. 

In the last game against Sheffield Wednesday, Cifuentes’ side earned a priceless point, scoring in the 96th minute after looking confined to defeat thanks to Barry Bannan’s opener in the 93rd minute. 

Crystal Palace are the visitors to Loftus Road, making the short trip across London to face the West Londoners. The Eagles endured a real purple patch to end last season but have struggled this season despite their fans clamouring for European Football. 

Oliver Glasner’s side are yet to win this season, having lost 2-1 to Brentford and 0-2 to West Ham and drawing 1-1 at Chelsea and 2-2 at home to Leicester. They also beat Norwich 4-0 – a game in which the Canaries were unlucky not to score in. 

All seven QPR games have seen Both Teams Score, as well as three out of four games for Crystal Palace in the league – including both away games. 

Prediction: Both Teams To Score @ 1.77

Manchester United vs Barnsley 

Tuesday September 17
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Manchester United have had a mixed start to the season, beating Fulham 1-0 and Southampton 0-3, as well as losing 2-1 to both Brighton and Liverpool. Erik Ten Hag is perhaps under pressure despite winning the FA Cup last year. It is highly unlikely that Manchester United challenge for the title, and they face an upward battle to finish in the top four, so Ten Hag will feel silverware in the cup is his only shot at redemption. 

The Red Devils injury list is mounting up, with Lenny Yoro, Luke Shaw, Mason Mount, Rasmus Højlund, Tyrell Malacia and Victor Lindelof out of the clash, while Lizandro Martinez is a doubt. Ten Hag has spent ridiculous amounts of money in his tenure, so United have a deep squad – a squad he will look to utilise at home to League One Barnsley.

The Tykes currently sit seventh in League One, three points off joint leaders Charlton, Birmingham and Wrexham. Darrell Clarke’s side have scored ten goals and conceded nine in sixteen games, with their games averaging 3.16 goals per game. 

Barnsley have lost two games – 1-2 to Mansfield and 3-0 to Stevenage. Their three wins have seen them beat Lincoln 1-2, Crawley 0-3 and Bristol Rovers 2-1, while they also drew 2-2 to Northampton. 

They travel to Old Trafford more in hope than expectation and are priced at a mammoth 16-1 to win in 90 minutes. While Manchester United’s odds (1.21) are too short to back as a single, adding over 2.5 goals – a statistic that has landed in every Barnsley game, boosts the odds to a backable single price. 

Prediction: Manchester United to win and over 2.5 goals @ 1.73

Brighton vs Wolverhampton

Wednesday September 18
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on Sky Sports X

Brighton have started life under Fabian Hurzeler in fantastic form, sitting fifth in the Premier League unbeaten, while also beating fellow Sussex side Crawley 4-0 in the last round of the cup. 

This unbeaten start to the season saw the German scoop up the Manager of The Month award – the youngest recipient of this trophy. The Seagulls had a strong transfer window, spending over £200m. This shopping spree now sees Albion with a strong squad, with Simon Adingra, Julio Enciso, Evan Ferguson, Pervis Estupinan and Ferdi Kadioglu all on the bench against Ipswich. 

Brighton are expected to rotate their squad, but it should still be a strong side. 

Gary O’Neil has admitted there will be wholesale changes for the midweek visit to the South Coast as he tries to get the best out of a stretched squad. Wolves currently sit 18th in the league after picking up just one point in the first four games. O’Neil’s side lost 2-0 to Arsenal before a 6-2 loss at home to Chelsea. A 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest restored some clarity before collapsing at home to Newcastle to lose 1-2. 

It should be a game where both teams are heavily rotated, with Brighton flexing their squad depth against a depleted Wolves side. 

Prediction: Brighton -1 Asian Handicap @ 2.08

Coventry vs Tottenham

Wednesday September 18
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Last season’s defeated FA Cup semi-finalists Coventry host Premier League side Tottenham Hotspur live on Sky Sports Football at the Ricoh Arena. 

The Sky-Blues finished last season just outside the playoff spaces but have started this season slowly, winning just once as they sit 14th in the league. Their astute recruitment, coupled with the continuity under Mark Robins, has seen Coventry punch above their weight, and they will be looking to claim another major scalp as they host a fragile Tottenham Hotspur side. 

One player who is a testament to Coventry’s smart recruitment is Luis Binks. The English centre-back has had an intriguing career since leaving Tottenham as a youngster, playing for CF Montreal, Como and Bologna before signing for Coventry in 2023. 

In 15 Championship starts, the 23-year-old was booked four times, averaging 0.27 yellows per 90, as well as 1.36 fouls per 90. He has started four Championship games this season, being booked in three.

Tottenham come into this game off the back of a disappointing derby-day defeat to Arsenal. Ange Postecoglu has gone on the record to say that he always wins trophies in his second season at clubs, so the pressure is mounting on him to provide success, and the EFL Cup may be his best chance at this. 

The signing of Dominic Solanke could prove to be crucial to this, as Spurs have longed for a Harry Kane replacement as the focal point of their attack. The Englishman is a nuisance to defenders with his pace and strength. 

A centre-back has been booked in 75% of the games against Tottenham so far, with the exception against Everton – a game in which no players were booked. 

Prediction: Luis Binks to be carded @ 3.55

Recommended Bets:

Back over 2.5 goals in Southampton vs Everton @ 1.82
Back Both Teams To Score in QPR vs Crystal Palace @ 1.77
Back Manchester United to win and over 2.5 goals vs Barnsley @ 1.73
Back Brighton to beat Wolves with a -1 Asian Handicap @ 2.08
Back Luis Binks to be carded in Coventry vs Tottenham @ 3.55