EFL Betting Tips: Who are you backing on the opening weekend of the season?

After a lengthy summer break, the EFL is finally back on our screens this weekend. The new TV deal sees more EFL football shown than ever, and Matthew O’Regan is here to preview five games for the opening weekend. 

Blackburn vs Derby

Friday 9th August
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Kicking off the new EFL season, we have former Premier League champions Blackburn Rovers hosting Derby County at Ewood Park live in front of the Sky cameras. 

A lot of uncertainty has surrounded Blackburn this summer, with their first signing coming just a week ago. Since then, three more players have joined The Rovers, but many fans feel they are still lacking in many areas.  John Eustace’s side survived by just three points, with the 27 goals from Championship Golden Boot winner Sammie Szmodics pivotal. 

Blackburn look set to be reliant on the goals of the Irishman again – a dangerous game to play, especially considering his previous highest goal tally was 15 in League One with Peterborough. Still, in John Eustace they have one of the most exciting managers in the EFL, so are in steady hands ahead of the season start. 

Derby gained promotion back to the Championship, finishing runners-up behind an excellent Portsmouth side. Paul Warne’s recruitment so far seems centred around experience, with Jerry Yates, Kayden Jackson and Ben Osborn all signed. Despite all this, the signing that the Rams fans are most excited about is the return of Ebou Adams – this time on a permanent deal from Cardiff City. 

The Gambian international is a powerful box-to-box midfielder who excels in the tackle. He was integral to Derby’s promotion after joining in the January window and was nominated for the League One Player of The Month award for March. 

Adams’ tenacious and gritty style of play often sees him in the referees’ notebook. The 28-year-old averaged 2.13 fouls per 90, picking up six yellows in 17 starts, for an average of 0.38 yellows per 90. 

Refereeing this opening encounter is referee Joshua Smith, who averaged 4.47 cards per game last season. With Adams tough in the tackle and a card-happy referee overseeing this tie, the Gambian looks value to start the season with a card. 

 Prediction: Ebou Adams to be booked @ 3.05

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

Sunday 11th August
Kick Off: 16:00
Live on Sky Sports

Sheffield Wednesday looked dead and buried last season under Xisco Munoz, before the inspired appointment of genius German gaffer Danny Röhl saw them survive by three points. 

With a full season under his management set to get underway, optimism is rife at Hillsborough. Under his guile, the Owls won 42.11% of their games – a terrific feat for a side lingering so close to the dreaded drop zone. The summer signings have been positive. James Beadle returns on loan between the sticks after a strong loan spell from Brighton, as does striker Ike Ugbo, this time on a permanent from Troyes. Svante Ingelsson is a shrewd acquisition from German third division side Hansa Rostock, while Olaf Kobacki is a signing of similar ilk from Polish side Arka Gdynia. 

EFL experience has been added in Nathaniel Chalobah, Ben Hamer, Max Lowe and Jamal Lowe, adding to a strong nucleus of players that Röhl has in his repertoire. Sheffield Wednesday look in good shape to continue on their six-game unbeaten run from the end of last season. 

Plymouth struggled last season, with Ian Foster a poor appointment to replace the departed Steven Schumacher. Wayne Rooney has been appointed as the new manager, despite turning Birmingham from playoff contenders to a relegation-threatened side before being relieved of his duties. 

 The Pilgrims also endured a torrid time of things on their travels last season, gaining just 16 points away from Home Park. They face a tough and arduous journey to Hillsborough to face a resurgent Sheffield Wednesday, who will be fancying their chances of starting the season with a win. 

Prediction: Sheffield Wednesday to beat Plymouth @ 1.84

Luton vs Burnley

Monday 12th August
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Two sides relegated from the Premier League face off in the last of the opening round of opening weekend fixtures.  

Continuity is key for Luton. The Hatters may have only made two signings since relegation, but they have only lost one key player in Ross Barkley and have the same manager they got promoted with. When they got promoted to the Premier League, they signed a lot of players in preparation for the Championship if they did go down. Players like Mads Anderson and Tahith Chong are high-end Champ players so Luton should get off to a flying start.  

One player in particular who was pivotal last season was striker Elijah Adebayo. The 26-year-old was plighted with injuries last campaign, but still managed 10 goals, despite starting just 16 games. Adebayo averaged 0.63 goals per 90, from just 0.43 xG per 90. Against a Burnley side managed for the first time by Scott Parker, Adebayo will look to start successfully in his quest for a golden boot.  

Prediction: Elijah Adebayo to score @ 2.98

Exeter vs Rotherham

Saturday 10th August
Kick Off: 17:30

After finishing thirteenth in a fantastic season, Exeter head into 2024/2025 with survival the sole aim for the Grecians once more. They host recently relegated Rotherham at St James Park. The controversial Steve Evans is back at the helm for a second spell as he looks to gain his 10th promotion of a hugely successful career. 

The Millers have been aggressive in their recruitment. 13 players have departed the New York Stadium, with 12 coming in, as Steve Evans’ looks to mould a promotion-winning squad. A big feature of an Evans side is the physicality, with a third of Stevenage’s goals last season coming from set pieces. 

Rotherham have signed two centre-backs this summer, with Exeter’s Zak Jules (6’ 3) and title-winning defender Sean Raggett (6' 5) arriving to bolster a beefy defence. While Raggett only scored three goals last season, he has shown previous goalscoring form, having scored 11 goals between the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons. With Steve Evans’ insistence on set-piece creativity, the 30-year-old should have plenty of opportunity to improve on his 0.79 shots per 90 last season.

 An added caveat to the bet is that last season Exeter conceded the most xG from set pieces in League One last season, 17.43 in total.  

Prediction: Sean Raggett to score @ 8.80

Tranmere vs Notts County

Saturday 10th August
Kick Off: 15:00

 Tranmere host Notts County at Prenton Park to kick off both team’s League Two campaigns. The sides were separated by just four points last season, with the Magpies finishing 14th in their return to League Two and Rovers finishing sixeteenth. 

 After six losses in their opening seven games saw them in grave danger of relegation, Tranmere turned to technical director Nigel Adkins to manage the club, citing his wealth of experience as a pivotal reason for the appointment. The 59-year-old steadied the ship, leading his side to safety with ease. 

Still, defensive issues remained, with Tranmere conceding 70 goals in the season, keeping just eight clean sheets in 46 games. Due to their leaky defence, Notts County had to be potent in attack, scoring 89 goals in a goal-heavy season in which they only failed to score in seven games. 

While back-to-back Golden Boot winner Macaulay Langstaff has departed to Championship side Millwall, Alassana Jatta is the man believed to fill the huge void left. The Gambian scored five goals in 10 appearances last season, only starting six games. The 25-year-old averaged 0.88 goals per 90 from 2.63 shots and 1.40 shots on target per 90. 

Interestingly, of his 15 shots, 100% have been from inside the penalty area, with three of his five goals coming inside the six-yard box, highlighting his poacher’s instinct. The Magpies are littered with creative talent, so Jatta should be given plenty of opportunities to add to his ever-growing stock. 

Prediction: Alassana Jatta to score @ 3.55

Recommended Bets: 

Back Ebou Adams to be carded in Blackburn vs Derby @ 3.05
Back Sheffield Wednesday to beat Plymouth @ 1.83
Back Elijah Adebayo to score in Luton vs Burnley @ 2.98
Back Sean Raggett to score in Exeter vs Rotherham @ 8.80
Back Alassana Jatta to score in Tranmere vs Notts County @ 3.55