EFL Betting Tips: Cards the way to go in the East Lancs Derby

As ever, we have our EFL Tipsheet, with a focus on the three televised Championship games, including a derby that is predicted to get feisty. We also preview matches from League One and League Two that should see plenty of goals.

Luton Town vs Queens Park Rangers

Friday August 30
Kick Off: 20:00
Sky Sports Main Event

We have a cracking game in store on Friday night as recently relegated Luton faces QPR under the lights at Kenilworth Road. 

The Hatters have had a disastrous start to the season, losing 1-4 to Burnley in the opener, before a 0-0 draw at Portsmouth and a 1-0 loss to Preston. Rob Edwards’ side currently sit 23rd, despite being tipped by many for promotion. 

QPR are also without a win, having lost to West Brom and drawn with Plymouth and Sheffield United. 

This should be a game where there are plenty of corners, with both sides overloading the flanks and looking to whip crosses into their big strikers. Both teams averaged over 10 corners in their last 20 games, so a corner-heavy game is expected. 

SBK has set the corner handicap at +/- 2.5 in favour of Luton. Over their last 20 league games, Luton have only recorded three or more corners than their opponents four times, with this bet winning 16/20 times for their opponents. This bet has won 15/20 for QPR. 

Prediction: QPR +2.5 corner handicap @ 1.72

Burnley vs Blackburn

Saturday August 31
Kick Off: 12:30
Sky Sports Main Event

Burnley’s relegation has meant we are treated to another two East Lancashire Derbies this season. This year’s instalment is early, but with uncertainty around both squads, we should be in for some fantastic viewing. 

Burnley were on cloud nine after 1-4 and 5-0 wins over Luton and Cardiff respectively, but a drab 1-0 loss to Sunderland and a mass exodus of first-team players has left Scott Parker uneasy heading into Saturday’s early kick-off. 

Connor Roberts was rested in the first half of the 2-0 defeat to Wolves in the EFL Cup, before being subbed on at halftime and subsequently being booked in the 73rd minute. 

The 27-year-old is expected to start on Saturday. Last season, he started eight games as Burnley were relegated to the Championship, being booked three times and sent off once. He was also loaned to Leeds, where he was booked in one of his two starts. Roberts was a key cog in Burnley’s last promotion campaign, starting 39 games, where was booked seven times and sent off once. 

When Blackburn faced Norwich, Canaries right-back Jack Stacey was booked after just 27 minutes, with right-sided centre-back Peter Kioso being booked last time out when Blackburn hosted Oxford. 

Lewis Travis also picked up his second yellow in as many games after fouling Tyler Goodrham with a poor challenge. 

Travis is no stranger to the referee’s notebook, with the 26-year-old shown 10 yellows in just 16 starts last season. He has been shown at least ten cards in the last three seasons and is on course to do this again. 

An added caveat to the bet is that Travis is a boyhood Blackburn fan from the academy, so will be more up for this game than he usually is.

Prediction: Lewis Travis and Connor Roberts to be booked @ 8.00

Sheffield United vs Watford

Sunday September 1
Kick Off: 15:00
Sky Sports + 

Despite off-the-field worries, Sheffield United have started the Championship season unbeaten, beating Preston 0-2 in the opener and drawing with QPR and Norwich in the games since. 

The Blades were relegated in a dismal season, conceding the most goals in a Premier League season. The only positive from that season was the emergence of academy graduate Oliver Arblaster. 

The 20-year-old shone on loan at Port Vale and was recalled by Chris Wilder, making an immediate impact in the first team. 

He became a mainstay towards the backend of the season and has played every minute of this season so far. 

With the added defensive stability Vinicius De Souza Costa brings to the Blades midfield and the relentless running Gustavo Hamer adds, Arblaster is afforded more attacking freedom in the Championship. 

After scoring against Preston and Norwich, Arblaster is tempting odds to make it three for the season against Watford. 

Prediction: Oliver Arblaster to Score @ 4.60

Blackpool vs Wycombe

Saturday August 31
Kick Off: 12:30
Sky Sports+

After a disappointing start to the season, Neil Critchley was dismissed as Blackpool manager with Richard Keogh placed in interim charge.  

A 2-1 loss to relegation favourites Crawley piled instant pressure on the 45-year-old before a 0-3 home defeat to Stockport County sealed his fate. Keogh’s first game in charge was a dramatic 4-4 draw at Cambridge, with the Tangerine Army throwing away a 1-4 lead. 

Blackpool have also been impressive in the cup beating Burton and Blackburn away, 0-4 and 1-2 respectively. That makes it five straight games this season where backing over 2.5 goals has landed. 

Wycombe started the season with a 3-2 defeat at the heavily fancied Wrexham in a highly entertaining affair. The Chairboys then lost by the same scoreline to title favourites Birmingham, before beating Rotherham 2-0. Matt Bloomfield’s side certainly rode their luck in the victory, with goalkeeper Franco Ravizzoli making an astounding eight saves. 

The two sides have been leaky at the back and look potent in attack, so we should be in for an entertaining game. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.89

Accrington Stanley vs Colchester United

Saturday August 31
Kick Off: 15:00

Accrington are entering a new era after the departure of John Coleman after 1,098 matches in charge across two spells. John Doolan is the new man in the dugout and Stanley have started slowly under his tenure, winning just three of his 15 games in charge. 

This season, The Owd Reds are without a win, having lost 4-1 and 3-1 away to Doncaster Rovers and Newport County respectively and drawing 3-3 at home to Harrogate Town in a topsy-turvy encounter. Accrington also lost 3-0 to Tranmere in the EFL Cup, meaning all four of their games have seen over 2.5 goals. In fact, spanning back to last season, 16 of Accrington’s last 17 games have seen at least three goals scored.

Colchester United are the visitors to the Wham Stadium on Saturday, with the Cowley brothers looking for a reaction after losing two of their opening three league games in charge. 

A strong summer of recruitment has occurred in Essex despite losing Jayden Fevrier and Jay Mingi, and The U’s look well-versed to improve on last season’s 22nd-placed finish. After a brace from Ben Goodliffe put them two goals to the good after just nine minutes, Colchester fans were in dreamland. 

This dream was short-lived, as AFC Wimbledon were 4-2 up after 54 minutes. A home tie against league favourites Milton Keynes Dons followed in which Colchester ran out 2-0 victors. Despite MK only accumulating 0.92 xG, Mike Williamson’s side spurned several strong shooting opportunities. 

The U’s were strong favourites against Harrogate Town but failed to capitalise on their 24 shots and 1.95 xG. Despite over 2.5 goals landing in just one of Colchester’s three league games, the underlying metrics suggest a goal-heavy game is incoming. A game against an Accrington side that has seen three or more goals in 16 of their last 17 games may be the ideal game for this. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.82

Recommended Bets: 

Back QPR +2.5 corner handicap vs Luton @ 1.72
Back Lewis Travis and Conor Roberts to be booked in Burnley vs Blackburn @ 8.00
Back Oliver Arblaster to score for Sheffield United vs Watford @ 4.60
Back Over 2.5 goals in Wycombe vs Blackpool @ 1.89
Back Over 2.5 goals in Accrington Stanley vs Colchester @ 1.82