EFL Betting Tips: Matthew O'Regan's 110/1 card treble for this weekend

After four out of five winners in his midweek EFL Cup tipsheet, Matthew O’Regan is back with another five selections for this weekend’s EFL slate. As ever, the three Championship games are previewed, as well as a low-scoring affair at Stevenage and an entertaining game at Port Vale. 

Plymouth vs Luton

Friday 27 September
Kick Off: 20:00
Live On Sky Sports Football

Friday Night’s live Championship clash comes from Home Park as Plymouth Argyle host Luton Town. 

Wayne Rooney’s side have had a mixed start to the season and will be looking to win just their second game of the season but face a tough task against a talented Luton side that’s finally starting to click after a treacherous opening few games. 

Argyle’s astute recruitment has seen them punch above their weight financially, with players from a variety of leagues coming down to Devon. One such signing is Ibrahim Cissoko, who arrived on a season-long loan from French side Toulouse. 

The exciting Netherlands U21 international is a real crowd-pleaser and will be pivotal to Plymouth’s survival this season. In limited game time last season, Cissoko won 2.30 fouls per 90 and has continued this trend in England, winning 2.95 fouls per 90.

Luton play a five-at-the-back formation, with the wingbacks given freedom to get forward. This means that wide centre-backs Teden Mengi and Reece Burke often find themselves covering out wide. Mengi will be tasked with dealing with the enigmatic Cissoko and may find himself in the book – as he did in Luton’s last game with Millwall. 

Tahith Chong enjoyed a fruitful debut Premier League season and was a real thorn in the side of opponents. The 24-year-old won 2.90 fouls per 90 and 2.91 fouls per 90 this season. 

Of Luton’s seven games this season, eight centre midfielders have been booked, with Chong booked three times in six Championship starts. 

Darko Gyabi should start in midfield for Plymouth on Friday night. The 20-year-old committed 2.09 fouls per 90, picking up 0.23 cards in the same time frame. This season, in 400 minutes, he has made eight fouls and picked up two yellow cards.  

Prediction: Darko Gyabi, Tahith Chong and Teden Mengi to be carded @ 110.0

Derby vs Norwich 

Saturday 28 September 
Kick Off: 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Saturday’s early Championship kick-off is a mid-table clash between Derby County and Norwich City.

Despite being tipped to struggle this season, Derby have started the season strongly and sit in tenth, winning three and losing three of their opening games. It will be their home form to thank if they are to survive, with The Rams picking up 49 points in front of their fans last season. 

This year has started in a similar vein. Paul Warne’s side have won all three of their home games and are yet to concede. New signing Jacob Widell Zetterström has been an inspired signing, keeping two clean sheets. 

Norwich have struggled on their travels, winning one and losing two of their first three games, blanking in two. The Canaries’ only away win came in a smash-and-grab 0-1 victory over Coventry, in which they accumulated only 0.40 xG from nine shots. 

For a side so impotent in attack this season, Norwich will be dreading travelling to a resilient Derby side. 

Prediction: Derby Draw No Bet @ 1.96

Stevenage vs Charlton 

Saturday 28 September
Kick Off: 15:00

Rocked by the departure of controversial manager Steve Evans to Rotherham, Stevenage turned in-house to appoint Alex Revell as the new manager. It has been a smooth transition for the 41-year-old, they remain pragmatic and hard to beat - conceding just 5.45 xGA but struggling to create much in the final third, creating just 2.32 xG from open play. 

Their games have averaged just 1.42 goals, with under 2.5 goals landing in 5/7. With ten goals in total, Stevenage games have seen the lowest figure in the league.

Charlton are the visitors on Saturday. The Addicks currently sit fourth in the league after an impressive start in Nathan Jones’ first full season. Charlton have scored seven goals and conceded just five in seven games, with their 5.47 xGa amongst one of the lowest in the league. 

Only one Charlton game has seen over 2.5 goals – the lowest total in the league. With Stevenage and Charlton both so strong in defence but feeble in attack, it should be a cagey, low-scoring game at the LAMEX.

Prediction: Charlton +0.5 handicap & Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.75

Port Vale vs Swindon

Saturday 28 September
Kick Off: 15:00

After a disappointing League One campaign, Port Vale were relegated back to League Two, with Darren Moore trusted to help the Valiants bounce back at the first time of asking. 

An impressive summer spree has left him with a strong squad capable of challenging up the table. His side currently sit ninth in the table and are three games unbeaten. Vale have scored 11 goals thus far, with Jayden Stockley and Lorent Tolaj impressive in the final third. 

The pace and trickery of Benicio Baker-Boaitey on loan from Brighton has added another dynamic to the Vale attack and they look a better side for his addition. The two goals scored in injury time to salvage a point against Accrington will fill Port Vale with confidence. 

Lowly Swindon are the visitors to Vale Park. The 4-0 win over Newport County was Mark Kennedy’s side's first win of the season having failed to win the other six. The Robins currently sit 21st, just two places above the drop zone.

Last season, Swindon were the worst away team in the league, picking up just 16 points on their travels in 23 games. This season, they have just three away points – drawing all three games. However, in two of the draws, Swindon were lucky to escape with a point, scoring a last-minute equaliser at Barrow. 

Prediction: Port Vale to win @ 1.95

Swansea vs Bristol City 

Saturday 29 September
Kick Off: 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Sunday’s Championship action comes from Wales as Swansea host Bristol City at the Swansea.com Stadium.

Luke Williams’ side have had a steady start to the window after a timid transfer window and currently sit seventh. At Notts County, Williams developed a reputation for exciting, chaotic football, while at the Swans, his football has been more reserved as he favours substance over style. 

Still, there are signs of Notts Country creeping in, most notably in the recent 1-2 win at Coventry. It was a chaotic, end-to-end game that saw three goals in the first 34 minutes. 

Bristol City are two points off Swansea after a 2-1 win over Oxford United last week. With eight goals scored and 12 conceded, the Robins’ games are averaging 3.33 goals. Four of their six games have seen Both Teams to Score, with the exceptions back-to-back 3-0 away losses at Derby and Blackburn. Five of the last seven meetings, as well as the last four in Swansea have seen Both Teams to Score. 

Prediction: Both Teams to Score @ 1.70

Recommended Bets

Back Tahtih Chong, Teden Mengi and Darko Gyabi to be booked in Plymouth vs Luton @ 110.0
Back Derby Draw No Bet vs Norwich @ 1.96
Back Charlton +0.5 handicap & Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.75
Back Port Vale to win vs Swindon @ 1.95
Back Both Teams to Score in Swansea vs Bristol City @ 1.70