EFL Betting Tips: Who will take a step closer to the title?

With the EFL season soon coming to an end, we are set for a bumper weekend. Stoke and Plymouth play out a crucial relegation battle, while Steve Evans is back in the Rotherham dugout for the first time in nine years. Portsmouth play their first game since being crowned as champions and a fascinating playoff battle takes centre stage in League 2. 

Stoke vs Plymouth

Kick Off: 15:00

Stoke host Plymouth at the Bet365 stadium in a game with huge implications in the relegation battle. 

Stoke currently sit in 20th, three points and two places above the drop zone. Steven Schumacher’s side are without a win in their last five games and are desperately scrambling for points. With a tough trip to promotion-chasing Southampton coming up, the Potters need points on the board. 

Plymouth are two places and one point above Saturday’s visitors. Buoyed by a gritty 1-0 win over Leicester, the Pilgrims know that a win will secure their safety. Argyle were sleepwalking to relegation under Ian Foster but seven points from three games under interim manager Neil Dewsnip has given fans real belief of staying up.

Relegation for Stoke will be disastrous. The Potters have a massively inflated wage bill and dwindling crowds, so it is imperative they survive in the Championship. While performances have lacked quality in recent weeks, there has been some degree of fight, with Schumacher’s side receiving 16 cards over their last 15 games.

This has been a familiar theme for their games, with Stoke averaging 2.57 yellows per home game – the most in the league. Likewise, Plymouth are averaging the most yellow cards on their travels (2.57). 

Their match against Leicester was a prime example of the fight and determination that Dewsnip has reintroduced on the South-West coast. The Pilgrims were steely and tenacious in keeping out the Leicester onslaught. His side also weren’t afraid to do the dirty work, picking up five cards. 

An added caveat to the bet is that Steven Schumacher left Plymouth halfway through the season for Stoke, so a spiky atmosphere is expected.

Overseeing this encounter is Robert Madley who has averaged 5.93 cards per game in the Championship.

This match has the perfect recipe for cards. Two relegation rivals who rank highly for yellow cards, playing in a hostile environment with a referee who averages very highly for cards – it is set to be a cracking match in Staffordshire. 

Prediction: Over 4.5 cards @ 1.88

Rotherham vs Birmingham

Kick Off: 15:00

News that Steve Evans had left Stevenage to take the vacant Rotherham job shocked the footballing world. The controversial manager is back at the club where he enjoyed a fruitful spell, leading the Millers to promotion in 2013. He will have the same aim next campaign, with Rotherham’s relegation to Division Three confirmed weeks ago. 

First, he’s got the task of navigating their final three league games, starting with a home game against relegation-threatened Birmingham. 

Rotherham have been far and away the worst side in the Championship, winning just four games all campaign. They currently sit 21 points off 23rd Sheffield Wednesday, so Steve Evans will be keen to instil some pride into a dismal Millers’ side. 

With 32 goals scored and 85 conceded, Rotherham have scored the fewest and conceded the most goals in the Championship. Games at the New York Stadium have seen an average of 2.14 goals with 13/21 games seeing under 2.5 goals.

Their opponents are a Birmingham side scrapping for survival in the league. Due to the unfortunate ill health of the wily Tony Mowbray, Gary Rowett has been placed in temporary charge, entrusted with steering the Blues to safety. 

The 50-year-old defence-first approach has been seen as the ideal mentality to keep Birmingham up. Only Rotherham have a worse away record than Birmingham, so Rowett will be keen to ensure his side address this rut and get a positive result on Saturday. Like Rotherham, Birmingham games have been low scoring, with 11 of their 21 away games seeing under 2.5 goals.

When looking at Steve Evans at Stevenage, his side were low-scoring too, preferring to keep it tight and bank on set pieces. 14/22 of their games at the Lamex saw under 2.5 goals.

If this game is anything like the drab 0-0 draw earlier in the season, under 2.5 goals looks value – a bet that has landed in the last five head-to-heads.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.98

Wigan vs Portsmouth

Kick Off: 15:00

Portsmouth ended a 12-year hiatus from the Championship on Tuesday evening by defeating playoff hopefuls Barnsley 3-2. Pompey had been leading the way for the majority of the season and will be delighted to have secured the title with games in hand. 

The relief was clear to see, with thousands of fans flooding onto the pitch at full-time to start the party. This party continued long into the night, with videos and pictures of the Portsmouth squad drinking the night away in the pub going viral. 

With such a short turnaround, it remains to be seen whether Pompey are in the right state of mind against Wigan on Saturday. No one could blame John Mousinho’s side if they were to switch off – it has been a gruelling season after all. 

Wigan will look to capitalise on this in a bid to climb higher up the table, with hopes of a top-half finish still on the cards. This would mark a season of monumental success for the Latics, with Shaun Maloneys’ side starting the season with a points deduction. An away draw with a resurgent Charlton and a win at the most in-form side in the league in Lincoln has shown glimpses of the quality that Wigan undoubtedly possess.

With pounding Portsmouth heads, Wigan will fancy their chances of causing an upset. 

Prediction: Wigan to beat Portsmouth @ 4.90

Doncaster vs Barrow

Kick Off: 15:00

After looking destined for a late-season relegation scrap, Doncaster have completely flipped their season on its head, winning eight straight games. Grant McCann’s side are now ninth, just two points off the playoffs with their destiny in their own hands.

This run has seen them win seven home games in a row, beating teams such as Wrexham and Crewe along the way.

Barrow had brief hopes of automatic promotion after a strong start to the season. However, Pete Wild’s side have been on a barren run of form, losing three of their last four games and now sit just three points clear of the playoff places. 

The Bluebirds are on a run of nine away games without a win, a run stretching back to December. Doncaster’s strong home form coupled with Barrow’s shaky away record; The Rovers look a good price for yet another victory.

Prediction: Doncaster to beat Barrow @ 2.08

Recommended Bets:

Back Over 4.5 cards in Stoke vs Plymouth @ 1.88
Back Under 2.5 goals in Rotherham vs Birmingham @ 1.98
Back Wigan to Beat Portsmouth @ 4.90
Back Doncaster to beat Barrow @ 2.08