EFL Betting Tips: Back West From to continue strong start against Portsmouth

The international break is finally over and Matthew O’Regan returns with his EFL tipsheet. As ever, the three televised Championship games are previewed, as well as two games from League One and Two.

Hull vs Sheffield United

Friday September 13
Kick Off: 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Friday night's action comes in an all-Yorkshire clash between Hull and Sheffield United at the MKM Stadium. 

After narrowly missing out on the play-offs last campaign, Hull decided to part ways with promising manager Liam Rosenior, opting for German Tim Walter after his spell at Hamburg SV.

So far, the 48-year-old is yet to win a league game in charge of the Tigers, drawing his first three league games, before a loss to Leeds in the last outing. 

Despite being promised exciting football, his spell has been sluggish thus far, with Hull lacking any cohesion or attacking impetus. After back-to-back 1-1 draws, The Tigers have drawn 0-0 and lost 2-0 since, scoring just twice in a drab league campaign. 

Sheffield United are looking for an instant return to the Premier League and are unbeaten in the league so far. The Blades started the season with a 2-0 win at Deepdale over Preston before 2-2 draws at QPR and Norwich. Chris Wilder’s side then scraped past Watford 1-0, to place them eighth heading into the international break.

All four QPR games have seen under 2.5 goals – the only team in the Championship to have this record. Sheffield United have seen all-bar one game have under 2.5 goals. In front of the Sky cameras, it should be a tight and cagey game between two sides aiming for the playoffs. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94

Millwall vs Luton

Saturday September 14
Kick Off: 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football

Saturday’s early televised game comes from the Den as Millwall host Luton.

Millwall have had a poor start to the season, losing 2-3 and 4-3 to Watford and Bristol City, before a 0-0 draw at Hull and 3-0 home win at home to Sheffield Wednesday settled some early-season nerves. 

Luton were one of the favourites for promotion but are yet to win a game and sit 23rd, with one draw and three losses.

It was a quiet window for Luton, with only four new signings in the squad. Jordan Clark is a player who has been at the Hatters for five seasons. The 30-year-old has started the last three games for Rob Edwards’ side, picking up two yellows in the process. 

The robust midfielder is averaging 2.78 fouls per 90 this season. Against Millwall, every centre midfielder has made a foul this campaign, with a centre midfielder booked in all-bar one game. 

Prediction: Jordan Clark to be booked @ 5.10

Peterborough vs Lincoln

Saturday September 14
Kick Off: 15:00

Peterborough are perhaps suffering from a playoff defeat hangover, struggling to find consistency this season. 1-2 and 1-4 away wins at Shrewsbury and Exeter were sandwiched in between 0-2 home losses to Huddersfield and Wrexham. 

Darren Ferguson will be annoyed at the frequency in which his side has conceded goals, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches – a run spanning to April. Goals are a recurring theme in Posh games, with their matches averaging 3.26 goals last campaign. This season, the average stands at 3.0 per game. 

Lincoln nearly snuck into the playoffs last campaign after a fine end-of-season run under new manager Michael Skubala. The Imps struggled in front of goal before his appointment, but the 41-year-old has got them firing. 

They currently occupy the final playoff spot, after beating Burton (2-3), Mansfield (4-1) and Stevenage (0-1), with their only defeat coming in a 1-2 defeat at home to Barnsley – a match in which they dominated. The Imps games are currently averaging 3.5 goals. 

Saturday pits two entertaining, free-flowing sides against each other in a game that should be a high-scoring affair. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83

Morecambe vs Colchester

Saturday September 14
Kick Off: 15:00

Morecambe are the only team in League Two yet to pick up a point, having lost all five games – all 1-0. 

It was a summer of upheaval for the Shrimps, with 16 players signing and 15 departing the Mazuma Stadium. Derek Adams has a huge task on his hands to turn this team into one that can survive. The Scotsman prides himself on defensive stability, and his side have kept it tight at the back, conceding just one goal a game. 

They are, however, lacking any attacking impetus, with Lee Angol and Marcus Dackers the main attacking options. Angol hasn’t scored more than seven goals in a season since 2018, while Dackers has yet to score more than three goals in a league above the National League North. 

Colchester finished one position above the drop zone last year, and the U’s have aims of pushing up the league table. They currently sit 18th in the league with one win, two draws and two losses. Since a topsy-turvy 4-2 loss at AFC Wimbledon, the Cowley brothers have kept it tight. 

A 2-0 win over MK Dons followed, before a 0-1 home loss against struggling Harrogate. 1-1 draws with Accrington and Bromley followed. Colchester games have averaged 2.4 goals, but half of this total came in the first game. 

Three of Colchester’s six goals this season have come from centre-back Ben Goodliffe, showing their reliance on set pieces. Both sides will be relying on set pieces instead of individual moments of quality, so a cagey, scrappy game might be in store. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74

Portsmouth vs West Brom

Sunday 15 September
Kick Off: 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Embarking on their first season in the Championship since their damaging relegation in 2012, Portsmouth have brought a lot of passion and endeavour but are yet to record a win, drawing three of their games and losing one. 

It has been a tough run of fixtures for John Mousinho’s side, so he will be satisfied with the start. Draws (3-3 and 2-2) at Leeds and Middlesbrough respectively and 0-0 at home to Luton had them unbeaten in the first three, before losing 1-3 to Sunderland. 

However, in the 3-3 and 2-2 draws they were both smash-and-grabs. Against Leeds, Portsmouth scored from three of their four shots, with their fourth shot from the halfway line. Leeds accumulated a 3.39 xG from 22 shots. 

The draw at Middlesbrough saw Boro have 30 shots and 2.90 xG to Portsmouth’s seven shots and 1.05 xG. Even with a man advantage for over an hour against Luton, Pompey struggled, as well as being swept aside by Sunderland. 

West Brom currently sit second and remain unbeaten. Carlos Corberan’s side came from 1-0 down to defeat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road in the opener, before drawing 0-0 at home to title favourites Leeds. A 2-1 win at Stoke and a 1-0 win at the Hawthorns against Swansea places them one point clear of the chasing pack. 

It has been a tough welcome to the Championship for Portsmouth, and it doesn’t get any easier at home to an in-form West Brom side. 

Prediction: West Brom to win @ 1.98

Recommended Bets: 

Back Under 2.5 goals in Hull vs Sheffield United @ 1.94
Back Jordan Clark to be booked in Millwall vs Luton @ 5.10
Back Over 2.5 goals in Peterborough vs Lincoln @ 1.83
Back Under 2.5 goals in Morecambe vs Colchester @ 1.74
Back West Brom to beat Portsmouth @ 1.98