EFL Acca: Back Bruce's West Brom to win Birmingham battle

The English Football League remains as eventful as ever. In his regular column, Jack Goddard helps you find some value midweek accumulator selections for Wednesday night’s games.

Luton Town v Coventry City

Kick-off: 7.45pm Wednesday

Luton have been pretty unlucky so far this season and don’t deserve to be 18th in the table. Their most recent game at home to Wigan showcased their tough luck as the Hatters managed to lose 2-1 despite their opponents having just one shot on target. 

Fans of xG will note that Nathan Jones’ side would be fourth in the table if matches were based purely on that statistic alone. However, their inability to see teams off has left them struggling and without a home win this campaign.

Luton looked pretty good at points in their unexpected defeat by Wigan, and previous away wins at Swansea and Cardiff, which bookended an impressive point against Sheffield United at Kenilworth Road, suggests the disappointing result against the Latics was simply a hiccup.

Coventry, on the other hand, continue to languish at the bottom of the table after accumulating just a single point from five games. The fact that four of those games were on the road is immaterial - they’re away from home again here - and Luton should be fancied to beat the bottom side at a tasty price.

Selection: Luton to win @ 2.16

Norwich City v Bristol City

Kick-off: 7.45pm Wednesday

Norwich are on a roll. They have won five games in a row, conceded just one goal in their last four matches, and are unbeaten at home all season - taking 10 points from a possible 12. Unfortunately for them, Bristol City are also on fire at the moment and have won four of their last five matches.

Three of those four victories came at Ashton Gate, however, while the Robins’ away form is somewhat patchy. They’ve amassed five points from four games on the road so far, with their only win coming against a Blackburn side in freefall. Despite this, Nigel Pearson’s group are the division’s leading scorers away from home, netting eight goals. The downside is that they have conceded just as many. 

The Canaries, meanwhile, have the best xG in the league. They have cut out defensive mistakes of late and will look to make the most of Bristol City’s own frailties. Expect goals from two in-form sides, with Norwich prevailing. 

Selection: Norwich to win and both teams to score @ 3.25

Rotherham United v Blackpool

Kick-off: 7.45pm Wednesday 

Like the rest of the footballing world, I’m holding my breath and waiting for Rotherham to drop down the league - as they always seem to do in the Championship. This season is the seventh in a row that the Millers have found themselves competing in a different division to the year before, but perhaps their yo-yoing days are over.

Seven matches into the new season, Paul Warne’s side has lost just a single game, meaning they’re unbeaten at home - with two wins and two draws. Their most impressive result came about a month ago when they smashed Reading, who now sit third, by four goals to nil.

However, Blackpool have only lost once on the road this season and are unbeaten in their last three. They’ve snagged a couple of 1-0 away wins in the process, but the Millers are averaging two goals a game at home and have only conceded twice in total. I fancy them to keep things tight and snatch a closely fought contest. 

Selection: Rotherham to win @ 2.3

West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City

Kick-off: 8pm Wednesday

West Brom have somehow contrived to win just one of their opening eight league matches despite boasting the best combined xG of any Championship side this season (13.78).

Nevertheless, Steve Bruce has made his side hard to beat and Brandon Thomas-Asante’s 98th-minute equaliser against Burnley a week and a half ago extended the Baggies’ unbeaten run to five games.

Thomas-Asante’s goal came on his debut for the club after signing from Salford City, where the versatile forward made 15 goal contributions last year. Perhaps the 23-year-old can help West Brom turn more of their many chances into goals? 

The Baggies’ cross-city rivals are having similar issues and have scored just once away from home all season. That goal happened to come against the sturdy Preston, who haven’t conceded to any other team. However, North End had been riding their luck, as the Blues’ goal was the 100th shot the Lilywhites had faced this term.

Victory over Preston gave Birmingham just their second win from their last 19 away matches - a pretty shoddy statistic. As a result, West Brom should be able to create enough chances against them to score at least one goal, which will likely be enough.

Selection: West Brom to win to nil @ 2.28

Recommended bets

Luton v Coventry - Luton to win @ 2.16
Norwich v Bristol City - Norwich to win and both teams to score @ 3.25
Rotherham v Blackpool - Rotherham to win @ 2.3
West Brom v Birmingham - West Brom to win to nil @ 2.28