EFL Acca: Back both Sheffield sides to win on Saturday

The Championship returns this week, which means more picks and predictions from football league expert Jack Goddard, who helps you to find some value bets with his EFL matchday 11 tips.

Sheffield United v Birmingham City

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Sheffield United have been flawless at home this season with four wins from as many games, and they have conceded just one goal in the process. They’re not just good at Bramall Lane, though, as their last three matches have come away from home and they’ve won them all to nil.

Paul Heckingbottom has built a side to be reckoned with - any team that finishes above them will earn promotion to the Premier League. But, at the moment, there don’t seem to be any candidates that are ready to unveil themselves as the Blades have slipped three points clear at the top of the table.

The positive for Birmingham is that they have won their last two away games. Those victories came at Preston, who up to that point had not conceded a goal, and West Brom, who are much better than their league position suggests.

However, the Blues’ average xG of 0.95 on the road shows they aren’t as good as those results suggest. United meanwhile are creating the chances (xG of 2.2 at home) and sticking them away - they’re the league's joint-top scorers after all. They will be too much for Birmingham.

Selection: Sheffield United to win @ 1.45

Reading v Huddersfield Town

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Paul Ince’s Reading astonishingly sit third in the Championship table after ten games despite having a goal difference of minus four - the fifth-worst in the division.

The Royals’ hideous goal difference can be attributed to their away form - they have lost 4-0 on the road twice already in games against Rotherham and Sheffield United. However, their home form has been pretty impressive. Reading won their first four games of the season at Select Car Leasing Stadium, before losing 3-0 to Sunderland on their own patch most recently.

They should return to winning ways here. Huddersfield are bottom of the league’s away table with three defeats from three, and new manager Mark Fotheringham will need time to stop the rot before he can expect to grab a result in such a tough fixture.

Selection: Reading to win @ 2.24

Cambridge United v Derby County

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Exactly like Reading, Cambridge won their first four home games of the campaign before succumbing 3-0 in their fifth, in this case against ten-man Barnsley.

Derby, just like Huddersfield, are the league’s worst away team so far, winning just two points from their first four games on the road. They also have a new manager in the shape of former Rotherham boss Paul Warne. However, unlike any other side in the top four tiers of English football, they are yet to score a single away goal.

This match could be a potential banana skin for United as Derby actually have the second-best xG away from home in the league - averaging exactly two expected goals per game. But, there is a difference between creating chances and actually putting them in the net. 

At such a massive price, I think it’s worth the punt that the Rams’ road fortunes won’t turn quite yet.

Selection: Cambridge to win @ 3.35

Port Vale v Sheffield Wednesday

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Port Vale have been absurdly inconsistent this season, which is part of the reason why they have been left out of this column until now. They have won three, drawn three and lost four games so far, but have been successful in just one of their last five encounters. It is difficult to come to a firm conclusion (a positive one, anyway!) regarding their capabilities this season.

Sheffield Wednesday have plenty in their favour coming into this game and appear far more trustworthy. They are the highest scorers in the league (also the second-highest in the EFL behind Northampton), and sit just two points off top spot with four wins from their last six games - a spell which has garnered 15 goals.

The Owls have won three of their four away games too, with their only defeat coming at Peterborough when Wednesday were required to play 60 minutes with ten men.

As you might expect, Vale have been patchy at home - but again, a negative pattern is slowly emerging. They’ve won just one of their previous four at Vale Park, drawing with lowly Cheltenham and ten-man Bolton, and losing to Portsmouth. Darren Moore’s side should have enough for three points here.

Selection: Sheffield Wednesday to win @ 2.08

Leyton Orient v Newport County

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

The Richie Wellens revolution keeps steaming ahead at Leyton Orient as they lead England’s top four tiers in accumulated points (28). The O’s are also one of just two unbeaten teams remaining in the EFL, along with Portsmouth in League One.

Orient’s home form is absolutely impeccable with five wins from five, ten goals scored and just two conceded - and even those came in the same game. They also come into this match off the back of four consecutive league victories to nil.

Newport, meanwhile, have lost three of their last four games without scoring - although they did hammer Harrogate 4-0 on the road before their tricky run of fixtures. That, however, was their only away win of the season. 

At a tasty price, it would be nonsensical to back anything other than a home victory here.

Selection: Leyton Orient to win @ 1.85

Recommended EFL Matchday 11 bets

Sheffield United v Birmingham - Sheffield United to win @ 1.45
Reading v Huddersfield - Reading to win @ 2.24
Cambridge v Derby - Cambridge to win @ 3.35
Port Vale v Sheffield Wednesday - Sheffield Wednesday to win @ 2.06
Leyton Orient v Newport - Leyton Orient to win @ 1.85

Accumulator odds: 38 decimal, 37-1 fractional