EFL Acca: Jack Goddard expects goals in Pompey and more clean sheets at Preston

The English Football League remains as eventful as ever. In this weekly column, Jack Goddard helps you find some value accumulator selections among the chaos.

Luton Town v Wigan Athletic 

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Luton started the season with a serious post-playoff hangover, picking up just two points from their first four games. However, with nine new transfers yet to settle in, a slow start may have been expected. 

The Hatters have since shot up the table with seven points from their last three games, while Wigan are beginning to flounder after a solid start. Last week’s 5-1 home thrashing by Burnley highlighted their limitations. The formbook remains in the Latics’ favour, however, as they are yet to lose an away game this campaign, while Luton are still searching for their first home win. 

Nathan Jones’ side more than matched table-toppers Sheffield United at Kenilworth Road last week, and are averaging an xG of more than two a game at home - despite scoring just once in total. Wigan, meanwhile, are struggling for chances on the road, with an away xG of just 0.88 per match.

I expect Luton to start converting their chances as Wigan’s luck on the road finally runs out.

Selection: Luton to win @ 2.1

Norwich City v Coventry City

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday 

Norwich have now won four games on the spin to move into second spot and relieve the pressure on manager Dean Smith. They have Josh Sargent to thank, as the American has scored four goals in as many games to keep Teemu Pukki out of the Canaries’ starting line-up.

Smith’s side haven’t convinced at the back, however, conceding in five of their seven games so far. They also allowed a goal in home matches against Wigan and Huddersfield, despite being in control of both games. This defensive instability bodes well for Coventry, who have the third-best away xG in the league and have already scored five goals on the road this term - only Burnley have netted more. 

Despite this, the Sky Blues contrived to lose two of their three away games-  both by three goals to two. With Norwich boasting the best overall and home xGs this season, I can see plenty of goals in this clash, with the Canaries’ quality eventually filtering through.

Selection: Norwich to win and both teams to score @ 3.9

Preston North End v Birmingham City

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Advanced apologies for continuing to bang the same drum in this column, but my job is to find you winners and there should be another one here.

If you weren’t aware, Preston kept their seventh-consecutive clean sheet on Wednesday evening in a 1-0 win at Coventry, meaning North End actually have the best away record of any side in the Championship. 

At home, however, they have played out three goalless draws - and, as luck would have it, Birmingham have also scored exactly zero away goals themselves. Surely this one has nil-nil written all over it? 

The under 1.5-goal selection has served us well with Preston up to now, and it looks a safe bet at a decent price to continue on Saturday.

Selection: Under 1.5 goals @ 2.74

Portsmouth v Peterborough United

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

League One’s top-scoring teams go head-to-head at Fratton Park in what should be a corker of a matchup. 

Both sides currently average more than two goals a game, but, while top-of-the-table Portsmouth have won their last two home fixtures and bagged seven times in the process, Peterborough’s away form has been patchy. That was highlighted by Posh’s dramatic loss at Derby last weekend, as their ten men slid to defeat after leading in the 88th minute.

This has continued last season’s pattern, where the London Road side picked up a miserable 12 points on the road all season. All signs point to a Pompey win then, but there will surely be a few goals along the way.

Selection: Portsmouth to win and over 1.5 goals @ 2.62

Leyton Orient v Tranmere Rovers

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Tranmere have carried their woeful away form from last season into this. A loss to Mansfield came before a draw against second-bottom Hartlepool and a defeat by Newport - who had lost their previous seven home games - all while scoring just a single goal.

Leyton Orient, meanwhile, have won all three of their home matches, two of them by two goals or more. The London side are top of the League Two table and are the top scorers in the division - a slightly surprising statistic considering they finished six places and 19 points off the play-off positions in the last campaign.

Whether this will last for Orient, or if they’re simply the early pacemakers, is up for debate. But they should extend their run for one more game at least against one of the worst away sides in the division. 

Selection: Leyton Orient to win @ 1.83

Recommended bets

Luton v Wigan - Luton to win @ 2.1
Norwich v Coventry - Norwich to win and both teams to score @ 3.9
Preston v Birmingham - Under 1.5 goals @ 2.74
Portsmouth v Peterborough - Portsmouth to win and over 1.5 goals @ 2.62
Leyton Orient v Tranmere - Leyton Orient to win @ 1.83