EFL Acca: Expect a first away win for Watford and Boro to keep rising

The English Football League remains as eventful as ever. In his regular column, Jack Goddard helps you find some value midweek accumulator selections among the chaos.

Blackburn Rovers v Watford

Kick-off: 7.45pm Tuesday

Watford have looked lacklustre in recent weeks, posting just one victory from their last five games amidst intense transfer speculation around their attacking talents.

Although three points have generally eluded them recently, Watford fans will be pleased that manager Rob Edwards has kept hold of Ismaila Sarr and Joao Pedro. There will be no excuses if the Hornets fail to finish in the top six now.

Blackburn have been a total disaster of late and have lost four of their last five games despite keeping hold of their own prize asset, Ben Brereton-Diaz. There is no doubt that the Chilean is one of the best players in the league, but if his teammates cannot create chances for the talismanic striker then Blackburn will soon sink into a relegation battle. Their xG after eight games is by far the lowest in the league (5.36). 

Rovers have lost their last two home games, against Stoke and Bristol City, while Watford appear solid on the road and have drawn all four of their away matches. They should finally snatch all three points here against a languishing opponent.

Selection: Watford to win @ 2.66

Middlesbrough v Cardiff City

Kick-off: 7.45pm Tuesday

Fun fact: Middlesbrough would be top of the Championship if every match was decided by xG. Unfortunately for them, it isn’t and they’re not. They are instead floundering in 17th place.

What this goes to show, though, is that they are clearly creating far more chances than their opposition. According to @EFLStats on Twitter, Chris Wilder’s side have performed well enough to warrant double the amount of points that they currently possess. 

It’s worth noting that Boro’s luck is already turning - they have won two of their last three games since sinking to 23rd spot a couple of weeks ago. Both of those victories came at the Riverside Stadium, where they are yet to lose a game. 

Cardiff have scored just once in their last five matches, and have failed to win any of them, which has meant they have slumped to 22nd place. It’s hard to see that tide turning against a Middlesbrough side that should continue their rise up the table.

Selection: Middlesbrough to win @ 1.71

Peterborough United v Fleetwood Town

Kick-off: 7.45pm Tuesday

Peterborough’s automatic-promotion credentials have faded lately after two successive defeats on the road.

The Posh have suffered from poor away form for a while now - they won a truly pitiful 12 away points in the Championship last season and only registered the seventh-best away record en route to second place in League One two years ago.

Jonson Clarke-Harris: Peterborough's striker is the joint-top goalscorer in League One this season

Their strength is at home, where they are utterly formidable at this level. Not only did they top the third-tier home table back in 2020/21, but they have won 3-0, 2-0 and 4-0 in three games at their own ground so far this term.

Fleetwood, meanwhile, are yet to win an away game this campaign, owed in part to their run of five successive draws. An opening day defeat against Port Vale has been followed by ties at Morecambe and Lincoln, but London Road will be by far their most intimidating away trip so far.

Peterborough, the league’s second-highest scorers, should have far too much for them on their own patch. Look to the Asian Handicap for some extra value. 

Selection: Peterborough -1.5 on Asian Handicap @ 2.64

Grimsby Town v Gillingham

Kick-off: 7.45pm Tuesday

Grimsby have recorded three wins and two draws from their last five games after an opening-day defeat. Interestingly, those victories have all come away from home.

That means the Mariners have failed to win either of their matches at Blundell Park this season, scoring just once in the process, but those stats are an inaccurate reflection of their dominance - Grimsby boast the fourth-best xG in the division at home, averaging 1.93 per match. 

Gillingham, on the other hand, are on a streak of three successive road defeats without mustering a single consolation goal. Their away xG per game (0.83) is pitiful and they have scored just once in seven games home and away so far.

You should expect Paul Hurst’s side to impose their superiority and grab their first win in front of their own fans this season.

Selection: Grimsby to win @ 1.95

Recommended bets

Blackburn v Watford - Watford to win @ 2.66
Middlesbrough v Cardiff - Middlesbrough to win @ 1.71
Peterborough v Fleetwood - Peterborough -1.5 on Asian Handicap @ 2.64
Grimsby v Gillingham - Grimsby to win @ 1.95