EFL Acca: Can Swansea and Plymouth continue their amazing form?

The EFL returns this weekend, which means more picks and tips from football league expert Jack Goddard. Read on to find some value bets with his EFL predictions.

Bristol City v Millwall

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Bristol City returned to form in midweek with an unexpected 2-1 win against Preston. The Robins are only the second side to score at home against North End all season after Norwich also scored twice against them in a 3-2 defeat last Saturday.

Nigel Pearson’s side have hardly been shy in front of goal all season, so it should come as no surprise that they were able to break Preston down twice. They are the Championship’s top scorers with 22 goals to their name - the problem is that they’ve also conceded just as many, giving them the second-worst defence overall.

However, Bristol City’s defensive record at home is actually pretty strong. They’ve shipped just six goals in seven games, which has helped them to achieve the sixth-best home form in the league.

Millwall are also brilliant on their own ground, but are dreadful on the road with just two points from six games. Back the Robins to inflict further away-day misery on the Lions at a nice price.

Prediction: Bristol City to win @ 2.6

Burnley v Swansea

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Swansea are on a seriously hot streak of form right now, winning their last four games. They were languishing in the bottom three just a month ago, but now they are flying high in the top six.

After more than a year, Russell Martin has finally turned his brand of possession-based football into results, and the Swans could now be a force to be reckoned with if they continue turning their dominance of the ball into goals.

Despite notable victories against Watford and Sunderland, facing Burnley at Turf Moor will be the hardest test so far for this rejuvenated Swans side. The Clarets have only lost once all season, but they have drawn more than half their games. 

Luton, Hull, Blackpool and Stoke have all taken a point at Burnley so far and, considering Swansea have lost just once on the road, I will back them to do the same.

Prediction: Swansea or draw @ 2.04

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MK Dons v Plymouth

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Plymouth are absolutely flying in League One right now, deservedly topping the table after eight wins from their last nine matches. Their only draw during that span was at Fratton Park, where fifth-place Portsmouth scored a 94th-minute equaliser against ten men.

As a result, I’m happy to disregard their first two away games of the season, when they lost at Fleetwood before being spanked 5-1 by Charlton at The Valley. The Pilgrims have played four matches on the road since then and have recorded three wins and the aforementioned point at Pompey.

MK Dons, meanwhile, are in serious trouble. They’ve lost five of their last six games in the league, and haven’t won at home since a narrow victory over Port Vale two months ago. A small word of caution: four of the Dons’ five most recent losses have been settled by a single goal. But that shouldn’t matter too much to this terrific Plymouth side.

Prediction: Plymouth to win @ 2.26

Swindon v Colchester

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Swindon have performed better than it appears on paper this season. They strung together an unbeaten run of six games before losing two of their last three, but those defeats came against Stevenage and Northampton, who currently sit first and third respectively.

Crucially, the Robins have also won three of their last four home games - scoring seven and conceding just two in those victories - with their only recent defeat being that narrow loss to Northampton.

The play-off contenders should have enough to see off Colchester, who are struggling in 20th position largely due to their truly dreadful away form. The U’s have managed just one point from five games on the road all season and have the worst away xG of any side, averaging just 0.64 expected goals per game on their travels.

Selection: Swindon to win @ 2.04

EFL Predictions

Bristol City v Millwall: Bristol City to win @ 2.6
Burnley v Swansea City: Swansea or draw @ 2.04
Milton Keynes Dons v Plymouth Argyle: Plymouth to win @ 2.26
Swindon Town v Colchester United: Swindon to win @ 2.04

Accumulator odds: 22 decimal, 21-1 fractional