EFL Acca: Plymouth and Derby can secure League One wins

The EFL returns this weekend, which means more picks and tips from football league expert Jack Goddard - read on to find some value bets with his EFL predictions.

Millwall v Middlesbrough

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Middlesbrough got the post-Chris Wilder era off to a flying start with a home win against an in-form Birmingham side on Wednesday. They are yet to permanently replace their former boss, which means caretaker Leo Percovich will be preparing the side for their trip to The Den.

Much like Boro, Millwall have made a disappointing start to the campaign. However, they remain formidable on their own patch - the Lions have won ten more points at home than they have away, which is the greatest disparity of any side in the Championship.

In fact, the London side has only lost at home to third-place Reading and fourth-place QPR, beating all other comers. Boro have only won one point on the road so far, so Gary Rowett’s charges should have the ability to see off the managerless side with ease.

Prediction: Millwall to win @ 2.82

Plymouth v Accrington Stanley 

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Plymouth have proved unstoppable at Home Park this season - they are one of just two sides in the whole EFL with a 100% home record so far (more on the other team later).

It’s not just the fodder that Argyle are beating, either. Five of the six opponents they’ve defeated at home sit in the current top seven of the league, alongside Plymouth themselves and Portsmouth. Make no mistake about it, the Pilgrims are serious title contenders.

So, do Accrington have a chance of breaching this seemingly impenetrable fortress? Well, they boast middling away form having won one (against struggling Bristol Rovers) and lost two of their last four on the road. At 1.78, it would be crazy not to back Argyle here.

Prediction: Plymouth to win @ 1.78

Derby v Port Vale

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Derby served as the ultimate coupon busters last weekend as they scored their first two away goals of the season to defeat a Cambridge side who had previously been exemplary at home.

Credit goes to new manager Paul Warne for that one, but the Rams were already doing perfectly well at Pride Park before he showed up - the arrival of a perennial League One winner in the dugout is only going to help them. They’ve won four and lost just one of their home games so far, with the single defeat coming after they blew a two-goal lead against first-place Plymouth.

Port Vale, meanwhile, are slowly slipping down the table. They’ve won just twice in their last ten matches, with their only away win all season coming at Burton, who were in total disarray at the time. Derby will be comfortable here.

Prediction: Derby to win @ 1.65

Barnsley v Exeter 

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Barnsley have been in red-hot form lately and have propelled themselves into fifth place after languishing in 16th at the beginning of last month.

Since then, the Tykes have won four of their last five games, which included seriously impressive wins at Sheffield Wednesday and Cambridge, where they scored twice with ten men. It seems as if the League One heavyweights will be a force to be reckoned with for the remainder of the season.

Exeter have tailed off a bit since their good start, and have struggled for any sort of consistency recently - they have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six games. They claimed their first away win of the season on their last trip with a 4-0 thrashing of Forest Green, but the Grecians have so far picked up just one point against sides in the top half of the table. Barnsley will prove too much for them.

Prediction: Barnsley to win @ 2.26

Stevenage v Swindon

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Stevenage are the other side, along with Plymouth, that are a perfect six out of six at home this season, after Leyton Orient lost their own 100% home record last week in League Two.

Swindon will prove to be tricky customers if the Boro want to continue their perfect record - the Robins have lost just once on the road so far this term, and that came on the first day of the season.

But Stevenage are scarily good right now. They haven’t conceded at home in three games, and have allowed just two goals all season at the Lamex Stadium. They also have the highest xG at home of any side in League Two, averaging 2.07 a game. Swindon will give them a great match, but at 1.81 it’s worth backing the Boro to come out on top once more.

Prediction: Stevenage to win @ 1.81

EFL predictions

Millwall v Middlesbrough - Millwall to win @ 2.82
Plymouth Argyle v Accrington Stanley  - Plymouth to win @ 1.78
Derby County v Port Vale - Derby to win @ 1.65
Barnsley v Exeter City - Barnsley to win @ 2.26
Stevenage Borough v Swindon Town - Stevenage to win @ 1.81

Accumulator odds: 30 decimal, 29-1 fractional