Croatia v Belgium Tips: Surprising underdogs can beat underperforming opponents

By Robin Bairner

Croatia v Belgium Odds

29 November 2022

Thursday’s World Cup clash between Croatia and Belgium will be billed as two international heavyweights that have struggled in Qatar - indeed, one powerhouse will crash out in the groups.

Croatia and Belgium went deep in Russia’s 2018 World Cup - they finished second and third respectively - but, unless Canada beat Morocco, there is no chance that both nations will progress to the Round of 16, no matter the result here.

The Croats come into this game off the back of a handsome win over Canada, while Belgium were stunned in a 2-0 defeat by Morocco - a shock result that has left Roberto Martinez’s side in desperate need of three points.

Croatia hitting their stride

Croatia’s power may have dimmed since reaching the 2018 World Cup final, but it has certainly not been extinguished. Their scoreless draw with Morocco on matchday one is the only anomaly in an otherwise impeccable last seven games, which included two fixtures against Euro 2020 finalists Denmark and an away match against defending World Cup champions, France.

Luka Modric: will look to orchestrate a victory for Croatia

After that minor blip, and also falling a goal behind against Canada, they hit their stride impressively. Croatia have shown a tournament-hardened nature, and goals for Andrej Kramaric (two), Marko Livaja and Lovro Majer will have provided the team with confidence.

European opponents have not been a problem for Croatia in World Cup history. Indeed, the only side to have defeated them is France - the 1998 semi-final and the 2018 final. Just a draw is enough for Zlatko Dalic’s side to qualify, so expect them to play tight at the back.

Belgian strife

Belgium aren’t entering this match in high spirits. The ‘Golden Generation’ appears to be falling to bits at the seams, with Eden Hazard, Jan Vertonghen and Kevin De Bruyne reportedly needing to be separated by Romelu Lukaku after an alteration. Beaten by Morocco and lucky to overcome Canada 1-0, this is not a team in good shape.

The domestic press has not been gentle on them, either, with particular disappointment palpable in De Bruyne’s performances. The media has urged the Manchester City player, who is their undoubted ace as the power of Eden Hazard wanes and Lukaku struggles to overcome his injury issues, to ‘wake up’.

There might be a string of dangerous omens for Belgium going into this game, but, in more positive news, they were undefeated in their previous 13 World Cup group matches before their Morocco loss. Indeed, they have not lost successive pool matches since 1982 and 1986. A draw, though, might not be enough on this occasion.

Croatia undervalued

With Belgium playing below-par on the field and in turmoil off it, they are surprisingly 2.72 favourites to win. They have won their last two against their Group F rivals, but one of those victories came back in 2013. Croatia look better value at 2.82.

Similarly, Croatia to score more than 1.5 goals is an attractive price at 2.48. They have achieved this in three of their last four internationals, in which they have totalled nine goals.

Croatia v Belgium Tips

Croatia to win @ 2.82
Croatia to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.48

Croatia v Belgium Odds

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